ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fyzn94]

91L has a very deceiving, vigorous mid-level circulation that could work down at any time as long as convection persists. Doesn't seem to be occurring yet.

http://i.imgur.com/7KfL1Qy.jpg

I think, given its impressive presentation on satellite, that it's a game of watch-and-wait at this point. I do agree that looks may be deceiving, though.

[lester]

No LLC found so far, only a SE wind found

[Dean4Storms]

Need to watch it once it gets in the FL Straits but see little organization mean time with all the shear.

[canes04]

At this point, it's best shot is for the mid level near 21 & 65.5 to work down to the surface.
I still believe conditions will improve tonight and tomorrow. I guess it's watch & wait.

[lester]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291758
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 13 20130729
174930 1954N 06822W 9820 00299 0160 +240 +226 089003 004 008 002 00
175000 1954N 06824W 9816 00302 0160 +240 +229 098004 004 007 000 00
175030 1953N 06826W 9819 00299 0159 +240 +228 107003 004 007 000 00
175100 1953N 06827W 9817 00300 0159 +242 +225 092004 004 008 001 03
175130 1953N 06829W 9819 00300 0159 +244 +224 087005 005 008 000 00
175200 1952N 06831W 9818 00301 0159 +244 +224 083006 006 009 001 03
175230 1952N 06832W 9818 00300 0159 +243 +225 087006 006 010 001 00
175300 1952N 06834W 9818 00301 0159 +242 +227 093006 006 010 000 03
175330 1951N 06836W 9818 00301 0159 +241 +230 092006 006 006 001 00
175400 1951N 06837W 9819 00300 0159 +240 +230 086006 006 005 000 03
175430 1951N 06839W 9817 00302 0159 +240 +228 092005 006 006 000 03
175500 1950N 06840W 9818 00301 0159 +240 +229 097005 005 007 001 03
175530 1951N 06842W 9811 00307 0159 +240 +229 100006 007 005 001 03
175600 1951N 06844W 9820 00298 0159 +243 +226 095008 008 005 000 03
175630 1952N 06845W 9817 00301 0159 +244 +221 091008 008 003 000 00
175700 1953N 06846W 9819 00298 0158 +241 +227 090007 007 006 000 03
175730 1954N 06848W 9818 00300 0158 +240 +231 093007 007 004 000 03
175800 1955N 06849W 9819 00300 0158 +241 +227 095007 007 005 000 03
175830 1956N 06851W 9816 00301 0158 +240 +228 100006 007 003 000 03
175900 1956N 06852W 9817 00300 0159 +240 +230 107006 006 002 000 03
$$
;

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA...AS WELL AS EARLY DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION...INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
WHICH ARE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO
OCCUR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS
OF DORIAN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND
COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Please, please, PLEASE quote the source! Most here realize this is coming from the NHC but there may be some who do not and think it is coming from you.

I modified my comment.

[Frank2]

Who ever said meteorology is an inexact science (LOL) - as said, looks can be deceiving...

Frank

[Portastorm]

Thank you TropicalAnalystwx13. Much appreciated.

Just a reminder to folks that if you quote another source, one of our rules here is to indicate from where you are getting the information.

[SapphireSea]

Looks really good to be nothing more than a wave. If convection wanes off completely I don't think even DMAX will save it this time. Also, I don't think there will be any tracks into the straits. NWS in Miami has consistently been saying deep layer steering will be S as a strong trough develops and dips into the Ohio valley. If there is anything left it will be over the peninsula and out to sea under hostile conditions.


From NWS Miami Discussion: /ISSUED 426 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013/

"MODELS ALSO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN TO MAKE A MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
GET PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH."

[HURAKAN]

Your eyes will deceive you, but the evidence doesn't lie.

[floridasun78]

why plane going far to sw ? is flight over?

[SapphireSea]

Your eyes will deceive you, but the evidence doesn't lie.

Definitely, whatever is present under all that seems to be mid level. CIMSS maps shows mid shear increasing around it. The waning convection is possibly the beginning of the end.

[Blown Away]

18z Guidance
390
WHXX01 KWBC 291815
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JUL 29 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE DORIAN (AL912013) 20130729 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130729 1800 130730 0600 130730 1800 130731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 66.8W 21.9N 69.7W 22.5N 72.4W 23.1N 74.9W
BAMD 21.0N 66.8W 21.6N 68.8W 22.1N 70.6W 22.4N 72.3W
BAMM 21.0N 66.8W 21.5N 69.2W 21.9N 71.4W 22.1N 73.4W
LBAR 21.0N 66.8W 21.5N 69.2W 22.0N 71.6W 22.4N 73.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130731 1800 130801 1800 130802 1800 130803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 77.2W 25.3N 80.8W 26.7N 82.6W 28.0N 84.1W
BAMD 22.7N 73.8W 23.4N 76.9W 24.8N 79.1W 25.9N 81.1W
BAMM 22.3N 75.3W 23.3N 78.5W 25.0N 80.4W 26.8N 81.9W
LBAR 22.9N 76.1W 24.3N 79.9W 26.9N 81.7W 29.7N 81.8W
SHIP 44KTS 52KTS 61KTS 67KTS
DSHP 44KTS 52KTS 61KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 63.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 20.1N LONM24 = 60.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wxman57]

So far, the plane isn't even finding the wave axis and it's nearly to 69W. Could be the wave axis is west of 69W. The convection is remaining stationary near the entrance region of the jet SE of the upper low. Convection should be diminishing as the wave axis continues moving westward.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Just posting the info...

[lester]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291830
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 15 20130729
180930 2012N 06840W 9818 00299 0157 +245 +227 125007 007 003 002 03
181000 2014N 06839W 9817 00300 0157 +245 +223 129007 007 000 002 03
181030 2015N 06838W 9818 00299 0157 +245 +220 124007 008 002 000 00
181100 2016N 06837W 9815 00300 0157 +241 +229 116005 006 002 000 00
181130 2017N 06835W 9819 00298 0157 +241 +232 124005 005 008 001 03
181200 2018N 06834W 9822 00295 0157 +240 +234 126006 007 003 001 03
181230 2018N 06832W 9814 00303 0157 +240 +234 119006 007 002 001 03
181300 2019N 06831W 9821 00295 0156 +240 +229 111006 006 000 000 03
181330 2020N 06830W 9817 00299 0156 +240 +229 114005 006 000 002 03
181400 2021N 06828W 9818 00297 0156 +240 +231 114005 005 001 001 03
181430 2022N 06827W 9816 00299 0155 +241 +231 104005 005 001 001 03
181500 2022N 06825W 9818 00297 0155 +244 +229 097005 005 001 000 03
181530 2023N 06824W 9818 00297 0155 +241 +232 104003 005 001 000 03
181600 2024N 06823W 9818 00297 0155 +242 +234 102003 003 /// /// 03
181630 2025N 06821W 9828 00287 0155 +244 +234 127003 004 004 001 03
181700 2026N 06820W 9831 00285 0154 +245 +233 136004 005 001 001 03
181730 2027N 06819W 9807 00306 0154 +240 +234 117004 005 000 001 03
181800 2027N 06817W 9824 00290 0154 +243 +233 111004 005 000 001 00
181830 2028N 06816W 9816 00297 0154 +241 +234 121004 004 000 000 03
181900 2029N 06814W 9818 00296 0153 +243 +232 121004 004 002 000 03
$$
;

[artist]

lester and tolakram, I can relieve you for a couple of hours, if you'd like.

[adam0983]

This Invest 91L looks a lot better than Tropical Storm Chantal. Does anyone think it will be upgraded to a td at 5pm?

[shortwave]

The best metaphor I can think of in observing satellite images would be watching a tall train going through a low underpass.

[AEWspotter]

I'm still not ready to give up on this system yet. Can't argue with the evidence though... there is no LLC (and and trough axis actually looks weaker than yesterday).

However, despite the evidence, I see some encouraging signs that are too difficult to ignore (yet). The MLC is strong and could help a LLC form (relocate) beneath. We're approaching DMIN, and the convection is still fairly healthy (albeit waning now) and has been solid since last night. The UL is definitely enhancing outflow to the north, and while the shear isn't low and the cloud shield is beginning to elongate N-S, the CDO feature near 21N,65W has more or less maintained.