ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

[hurricanekid416]

This reminds me of Ernesto from last year it looks great but looks can be deceiving

[Blown Away]

There's a buoy near the mid-level rotation in the center of the convection. Pressure there 1019.2mb:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Dorian4.jpg

I think they heard you and are going to check it out...


JB is happy they turned around...

[floridasun78]

why i do spin on sat pic? dont tell me eye play trick plane going check that area now

[GCANE]

That mid-level dry air might have some moist boundary-layer air associated with it.

Afternoon solar heating seems to have broken the convective cap over DR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291908
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 20 20130729
185930 2156N 06622W 9819 00314 0180 +214 +206 124033 035 027 003 03
190000 2157N 06621W 9819 00315 0180 +215 +206 126033 034 027 002 00
190030 2159N 06620W 9785 00344 0179 +215 +201 126035 036 029 001 03
190100 2200N 06619W 9738 00386 0181 +211 +200 127034 035 029 001 03
190130 2201N 06617W 9712 00410 0181 +210 +199 124034 036 028 002 00
190200 2202N 06616W 9716 00408 0182 +210 +200 123033 034 027 001 03
190230 2203N 06615W 9711 00413 0182 +210 +200 125032 033 026 001 00
190300 2205N 06613W 9713 00411 0182 +211 +192 128034 036 027 000 00
190330 2206N 06612W 9713 00411 0182 +214 +185 128034 035 029 002 03
190400 2207N 06611W 9712 00412 0182 +215 +183 128033 034 027 000 00
190430 2208N 06609W 9713 00411 0181 +218 +178 132034 035 027 001 00
190500 2209N 06608W 9714 00410 0182 +218 +180 130034 034 028 000 03
190530 2210N 06607W 9704 00419 0182 +217 +179 131034 035 032 000 03
190600 2210N 06605W 9715 00410 0181 +219 +180 133033 034 031 001 00
190630 2210N 06603W 9713 00410 0181 +220 +177 134032 033 033 001 00
190700 2211N 06602W 9712 00411 0181 +220 +177 136031 032 031 001 00
190730 2211N 06600W 9714 00409 0181 +222 +176 136032 033 030 004 00
190800 2211N 06558W 9712 00410 0181 +220 +173 139031 032 032 000 03
190830 2212N 06557W 9712 00412 0181 +220 +175 139031 032 028 002 00
190900 2212N 06555W 9715 00409 0182 +214 +182 140030 032 031 001 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

why i do spin on sat pic? dont tell me eye play trick plane going check that area now

Why do you see spin? These tropical systems are 3 dimensional features. In many cases, there may well be a closed circulation well above the surface, perhaps 5000 or 10000 feet above the surface. That's why you can see rotation on satellite but the plane finds no rotation at the surface.

[floridasun78]

why i do spin on sat pic? dont tell me eye play trick plane going check that area now

Why do you see spin? These tropical systems are 3 dimensional features. In many cases, there may well be a closed circulation well above the surface, perhaps 5000 or 10000 feet above the surface. That's why you can see rotation on satellite but the plane finds no rotation at the surface.

i see plane going check that area now let see what it find

[artist]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291918
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 21 20130729
190930 2212N 06553W 9714 00410 0183 +214 +180 141030 030 028 002 03
191000 2212N 06552W 9713 00412 0183 +218 +165 141031 032 028 001 03
191030 2212N 06550W 9715 00411 0182 +219 +164 142030 031 028 002 03
191100 2212N 06548W 9717 00409 0184 +215 +171 144028 030 028 002 03
191130 2211N 06547W 9720 00405 0182 +212 +179 145028 029 027 002 00
191200 2211N 06546W 9707 00415 0181 +217 +172 144029 030 029 001 00
191230 2210N 06545W 9710 00412 0181 +217 +169 143029 030 025 002 00
191300 2209N 06544W 9713 00411 0182 +219 +160 139028 029 025 004 00
191330 2208N 06542W 9709 00415 0183 +214 +172 140026 028 025 001 03
191400 2207N 06541W 9714 00410 0183 +212 +182 139025 026 026 000 00
191430 2207N 06540W 9711 00413 0184 +210 +190 142025 026 026 002 00
191500 2206N 06539W 9713 00412 0184 +210 +193 141025 026 027 001 00
191530 2205N 06538W 9708 00416 0183 +210 +192 140024 025 024 002 03
191600 2204N 06536W 9711 00413 0183 +213 +183 140025 026 023 001 03
191630 2204N 06535W 9709 00415 0183 +212 +185 138022 025 024 001 00
191700 2203N 06534W 9715 00411 0184 +212 +187 140025 026 025 003 00
191730 2202N 06533W 9705 00418 0183 +210 +190 141024 025 026 002 03
191800 2201N 06532W 9714 00410 0183 +213 +188 141025 026 027 001 00
191830 2200N 06531W 9713 00412 0183 +215 +183 131025 026 027 002 03
191900 2159N 06530W 9706 00417 0182 +215 +177 129025 026 027 003 00

[artist]

[wxman57]

Plane is finding only SE winds through the area of convection. Good plot here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png

And rising pressure near the heavier convection:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... fltwnd.png

[GCANE]

Looks like an eye forming

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Just kidding

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291930
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 22 20130729
191930 2158N 06530W 9710 00414 0183 +216 +161 129025 027 027 003 00
192000 2156N 06530W 9712 00412 0183 +214 +167 127024 026 024 004 00
192030 2155N 06530W 9715 00409 0182 +214 +165 129026 027 025 003 00
192100 2153N 06530W 9713 00409 0181 +214 +171 134025 026 024 003 03
192130 2152N 06530W 9711 00411 0181 +217 +177 133027 029 025 002 00
192200 2151N 06530W 9711 00411 0180 +217 +174 132027 029 025 002 03
192230 2149N 06530W 9710 00413 0180 +218 +170 131027 028 022 002 03
192300 2148N 06530W 9709 00414 0180 +220 +157 128030 032 024 002 00
192330 2146N 06530W 9712 00409 0179 +221 +159 124030 032 024 001 00
192400 2145N 06530W 9710 00411 0179 +216 +185 125027 029 024 001 00
192430 2143N 06530W 9712 00410 0179 +213 +191 123024 027 025 000 00
192500 2142N 06530W 9712 00409 0179 +212 +194 122023 024 021 001 00
192530 2141N 06530W 9711 00411 0179 +213 +190 124024 024 024 001 00
192600 2139N 06530W 9712 00409 0180 +210 +198 125022 024 023 001 00
192630 2138N 06530W 9712 00410 0181 +209 +202 124021 021 024 001 00
192700 2136N 06530W 9715 00408 0181 +209 +203 126022 023 024 001 03
192730 2135N 06530W 9708 00414 0181 +210 +202 126023 024 024 001 03
192800 2133N 06530W 9713 00411 0182 +206 +203 130022 023 025 006 03
192830 2132N 06530W 9712 00411 0182 +205 +200 132025 026 026 006 00
192900 2131N 06530W 9708 00414 0182 +205 +201 134025 025 026 007 00
$$
;

[artist]

[floridasun78]

wx57 show up mean bye bye 91l you bad news bear for invest and tropical system

[curtadams]

Development seems extremely unlikely. MLC's have a hard time forming LLC's even with support from a wave or ULL. This has neither. It's common to see a great-looking MLC like this disappear with absolutely nothing left underneath.

[floridasun78]

wx57 show up fat lady singing rip to 91l

[Riptide]

New convection burst over the surface circulation, looks like the NAM. Regardless, 91L is horridly decoupled almost beyond the point of no return.

[floridasun78]

ok when will nhc take 91l down that unlikely going to make come back ???