ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[canes04]

I'm sticking with MLC until the end. If ULL's can work there way down so can this MLC.
It still is impressive.

[cycloneye]

wx57 show up fat lady singing rip to 91l

I think he wont bring bones yet as maybe 91L gets a small sweet spot in 3-4 days.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291938
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 23 20130729
192930 2129N 06530W 9715 00408 0183 +202 +200 136025 025 029 008 00
193000 2128N 06530W 9709 00415 0184 +201 +194 135022 024 028 008 00
193030 2126N 06530W 9713 00412 0186 +198 +192 142020 021 027 008 00
193100 2125N 06530W 9713 00412 0189 +191 +191 140019 020 033 009 00
193130 2123N 06530W 9709 00417 0189 +191 +191 141019 021 032 011 00
193200 2122N 06530W 9710 00415 0189 +193 +193 143017 019 030 010 03
193230 2121N 06530W 9713 00414 0189 +195 +195 146016 018 031 010 00
193300 2119N 06530W 9709 00417 0188 +194 +194 137017 018 031 008 00
193330 2118N 06530W 9715 00409 0188 +191 +191 127018 019 037 011 00
193400 2116N 06530W 9708 00414 0183 +199 +191 127019 021 029 009 00
193430 2115N 06530W 9713 00409 0183 +199 +195 132017 019 022 004 03
193500 2113N 06530W 9712 00410 0182 +202 +192 127017 018 023 003 00
193530 2112N 06530W 9715 00409 0182 +210 +187 128017 017 020 002 00
193600 2110N 06530W 9713 00410 0181 +213 +183 130018 018 018 003 00
193630 2109N 06530W 9711 00412 0182 +211 +182 120014 017 021 008 03
193700 2107N 06530W 9701 00422 0184 +204 +185 107012 013 021 009 00
193730 2105N 06530W 9714 00413 0186 +206 +182 105011 012 020 008 00
193800 2104N 06530W 9712 00414 0185 +206 +180 110011 011 019 007 00
193830 2102N 06530W 9712 00414 0185 +204 +184 112012 013 023 005 00
193900 2100N 06530W 9713 00412 0184 +204 +185 109011 012 017 006 00
$$
;

[artist]

[NDG]

What we need to take out of Dorian and Chantal is that any storms forming east of the lesser Antilles seem to be taking a track towards FL and or the SE US. This could very well be the tracks setting up for the rest of the season, hopefully the dry stable air hangs around a bit longer at the MDR.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291948
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 24 20130729
193930 2058N 06530W 9714 00409 0183 +205 +187 107012 012 018 005 03
194000 2057N 06530W 9716 00406 0182 +209 +184 106014 014 014 002 00
194030 2055N 06530W 9711 00411 0181 +209 +185 105012 014 009 003 03
194100 2053N 06530W 9705 00416 0180 +210 +183 111011 012 012 002 00
194130 2051N 06530W 9711 00410 0179 +216 +185 125013 014 012 002 00
194200 2049N 06530W 9720 00401 0178 +217 +184 118014 015 015 002 03
194230 2047N 06530W 9711 00409 0178 +216 +187 113014 016 011 003 00
194300 2045N 06530W 9717 00404 0177 +219 +184 110014 016 012 002 00
194330 2043N 06530W 9717 00403 0177 +218 +190 102012 013 010 001 00
194400 2041N 06530W 9709 00411 0178 +210 +196 080009 011 007 002 00
194430 2039N 06530W 9715 00406 0177 +219 +194 101010 010 009 000 00
194500 2037N 06530W 9715 00404 0176 +225 +195 108010 011 010 000 03
194530 2035N 06530W 9715 00404 0175 +221 +197 100010 010 010 000 00
194600 2033N 06530W 9720 00399 0175 +217 +200 100011 012 011 000 00
194630 2031N 06530W 9719 00400 0173 +217 +204 101012 012 012 001 00
194700 2029N 06530W 9714 00402 0172 +225 +202 112012 013 011 001 03
194730 2027N 06530W 9715 00401 0170 +230 +196 117013 013 006 002 03
194800 2025N 06530W 9716 00400 0170 +229 +195 115014 014 009 001 03
194830 2023N 06530W 9717 00399 0170 +230 +196 116014 014 008 001 00
194900 2021N 06530W 9716 00399 0169 +231 +199 122014 014 012 001 00
$$

[hurricanekid416]

Is there a chance or is it dead

[TheStormExpert]

Wish it would go POOF already!

[artist]

[wxman57]

Cloud tops are warming fast as the wave axis, weak as it is, moves off to the west. Convection is dying out.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291958
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 25 20130729
194930 2019N 06530W 9717 00398 0168 +235 +200 135014 014 012 000 03
195000 2017N 06530W 9716 00399 0168 +235 +201 138015 015 011 000 00
195030 2015N 06530W 9717 00397 0168 +235 +204 138015 015 015 001 00
195100 2013N 06530W 9715 00399 0167 +235 +205 136015 016 013 001 00
195130 2011N 06530W 9716 00398 0167 +231 +207 129015 015 013 001 00
195200 2009N 06530W 9716 00397 0167 +230 +207 128015 015 012 000 00
195230 2007N 06530W 9716 00399 0167 +232 +209 135015 015 014 000 03
195300 2005N 06530W 9717 00397 0166 +235 +206 141014 014 012 000 03
195330 2003N 06530W 9716 00397 0166 +235 +207 137014 014 012 000 03
195400 2001N 06530W 9717 00396 0166 +234 +209 126014 014 012 001 03
195430 1959N 06532W 9713 00400 0166 +230 +214 121013 014 014 001 00
195500 1957N 06533W 9666 00443 0159 +229 +211 127014 015 014 000 00
195530 1956N 06534W 9377 00703 0163 +217 +185 135016 017 014 000 00
195600 1954N 06536W 9070 00997 0171 +196 +175 138018 018 015 000 00
195630 1953N 06537W 8764 01291 0168 +181 +153 141018 019 012 001 03
195700 1951N 06539W 8367 01691 0168 +161 +121 148017 018 010 000 00
195730 1950N 06540W 8017 02059 0167 +153 +033 159013 016 012 000 00
195800 1948N 06541W 7726 02366 0157 +140 +022 154006 010 008 000 00
195830 1947N 06543W 7457 02665 0153 +120 +060 107002 004 008 000 00
195900 1945N 06544W 7203 02956 0155 +099 +066 123002 003 006 001 00
$$

[floridasun78]

ok why nhc dont kill invest 91 if dead why? make it strong tropical wave only take invest 91 off

[MiamiensisWx]

Cloud tops are warming fast as the wave axis, weak as it is, moves off to the west. Convection is dying out.

I definitely agree with you...although, as an aside, all the outflow from the dying convection has helped to warm the upper troposphere, thereby further weakening the TUTT to the west.

[jhpigott]

Cloud tops are warming fast as the wave axis, weak as it is, moves off to the west. Convection is dying out.

You think there is any chance to see a flare up of convection tonight near the wave axis?

[wxman57]

Cloud tops are warming fast as the wave axis, weak as it is, moves off to the west. Convection is dying out.

You think there is any chance to see a flare up of convection tonight near the wave axis?

Not likely tonight, as it will be moving into in the SW quadrant of the upper low. And without the upper low's SE quadrant to enhance the convection, the wave may have very little convection after today.

[artist]

[MiamiensisWx]

Cloud tops are warming fast as the wave axis, weak as it is, moves off to the west. Convection is dying out.

You think there is any chance to see a flare up of convection tonight near the wave axis?

Not likely tonight, as it will be moving into in the SW quadrant of the upper low. And without the upper low's SE quadrant to enhance the convection, the wave may have very little convection after today.

And after tomorrow, conditions will actually get more hostile as the wave nears the convergent flow on the east side of the S-Plains ridge. Such a flow pattern from the NE tends to discourage surface convergence and prevents an upper-level anticyclone from forming directly over the system. Basically, this system is finished.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292008
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 26 20130729
195930 1944N 06546W 7016 03172 0152 +093 +014 207003 004 005 000 03
200000 1942N 06547W 7000 03189 0153 +087 +023 214003 004 004 001 00
200030 1940N 06549W 7011 03176 0157 +084 +021 209002 003 005 001 03
200100 1938N 06551W 7010 03180 0156 +086 +020 243002 002 005 000 03
200130 1937N 06552W 7012 03173 0158 +084 +016 344001 003 007 000 03
200200 1935N 06554W 7008 03180 0157 +085 +018 327001 002 007 001 00
200230 1933N 06556W 7013 03175 0154 +093 -065 290002 002 005 000 03
200300 1931N 06557W 6999 03193 0151 +098 -159 219005 006 /// /// 03
200330 1929N 06556W 7002 03187 0142 +102 -153 241003 005 005 001 00
200400 1927N 06554W 7001 03189 0140 +106 -183 233006 007 007 000 03
200430 1925N 06553W 7002 03187 0142 +105 -220 224011 012 006 000 00
200500 1923N 06551W 7002 03186 0141 +105 -232 214014 015 003 001 00
200530 1921N 06550W 7001 03189 0139 +105 -232 211016 017 005 000 03
200600 1919N 06549W 7000 03186 0139 +105 -211 210017 018 002 002 00
200630 1917N 06547W 7000 03188 0138 +105 -174 210017 018 003 000 00
200700 1915N 06546W 7000 03185 0137 +105 -164 210017 017 003 000 00
200730 1913N 06545W 7002 03186 0137 +105 -138 206017 017 002 000 03
200800 1911N 06543W 7002 03187 0135 +105 -117 201017 017 003 000 03
200830 1909N 06542W 6999 03188 0136 +105 -118 201016 017 002 000 00
200900 1908N 06540W 7003 03185 0136 +105 -090 200016 016 002 000 03
$$
;

[TheStormExpert]

What we need to take out of Dorian and Chantal is that any storms forming east of the lesser Antilles seem to be taking a track towards FL and or the SE US. This could very well be the tracks setting up for the rest of the season, hopefully the dry stable air hangs around a bit longer at the MDR.

But these storms are much much weaker compared to say the Frances and Jeanne from 2004 so they are probably being steered a little farther south. Plus there has been more troughs swinging through the East coast as of recently.

[wxman57]

Plane is heading back to St. Croix at 10,000ft.

200130 1937N 06552W 7012 03173 0158 +084 +016 344001 003 007 000 03
200200 1935N 06554W 7008 03180 0157 +085 +018 327001 002 007 001 00
200230 1933N 06556W 7013 03175 0154 +093 -065 290002 002 005 000 03