ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

[Frank2]

Poor NHC - the deceiving visible appearance of that disturbance is driving the media and public crazy, perhaps one reason the NHC put out a special TWO in the past hour (sorry for the hotlink - one day I'll learn how to insert the photo - lol)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO...CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE DISTURBANCE IS POORLY
ORGANIZED WITH THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES WELL REMOVED FROM THE
MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND COULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE FOUND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292018
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 27 20130729
200930 1906N 06539W 6999 03188 0139 +103 -087 200016 016 003 000 03
201000 1904N 06538W 7003 03181 0140 +103 -087 199016 016 003 001 03
201030 1902N 06536W 6998 03189 0138 +100 -091 201016 017 001 002 03
201100 1900N 06535W 7001 03186 0138 +100 -081 199017 017 002 001 03
201130 1858N 06534W 7002 03183 0138 +100 -078 197017 017 001 001 00
201200 1856N 06532W 7025 03156 0137 +104 -075 195017 017 002 000 03
201230 1854N 06531W 7175 02981 0145 +110 -124 189016 016 003 000 03
201300 1852N 06530W 7348 02780 0153 +113 -108 188015 017 004 001 03
201330 1850N 06528W 7529 02574 0154 +124 -104 178011 013 002 001 00
201400 1848N 06527W 7560 02539 0152 +130 -113 180009 010 002 000 03
201430 1847N 06526W 7560 02542 0153 +128 -115 170009 009 002 001 03
201500 1845N 06525W 7557 02544 0152 +128 -112 169009 010 003 002 00
201530 1843N 06523W 7561 02538 0150 +130 -105 174009 010 003 002 03
201600 1841N 06522W 7560 02539 0149 +130 -100 170009 009 004 002 00
201630 1839N 06521W 7559 02542 0151 +130 -099 166010 010 004 001 00
201700 1837N 06519W 7560 02539 0151 +130 -097 169010 010 003 000 00
201730 1836N 06518W 7562 02537 0150 +130 -094 176009 010 006 000 03
201800 1834N 06517W 7562 02536 0153 +128 -099 172010 010 003 000 00
201830 1832N 06515W 7560 02541 0151 +130 -104 184008 009 004 000 03
201900 1830N 06514W 7561 02540 0148 +135 -111 184009 010 008 002 03
$$
;

[artist]

going home, it seems

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is it the mid-level shear killing it or is it upper-level?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Interesting wind shift observed by recon west of 65W and south of 20N.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png

[Hurricane Alexis]

Interesting wind shift observed by recon..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png

Looks like a wave axis.

[wxman57]

Interesting wind shift observed by recon west of 65W and south of 20N.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png

Note the altitude of the plane. The wind shifted as the plane climbed from about 1500 ft to 10,000 ft.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Interesting wind shift observed by recon west of 65W and south of 20N.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png

Note the altitude of the plane. The wind shifted as the plane climbed from about 1500 ft to 10,000 ft.

Ah, that's it. Thanks.

[wxman57]

Interesting wind shift observed by recon west of 65W and south of 20N.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png

Note the altitude of the plane. The wind shifted as the plane climbed from about 1500 ft to 10,000 ft.

Ah, that's it. Thanks.

Caused me to raise part of one eyebrow for a few seconds, too.

[abajan]

Your eyes will deceive you, but the evidence doesn't lie.

It's something like what pilots are advised to do: "Don't fly by the seat of your pants." In other words, when it feels like the plane is doing something but the instruments indicate it's doing something else, trust the instruments!

[Blown Away]

18z...Just because

[beoumont]

Is there a chance or is it dead

Yes, there is a chance it is dead.

Or a Zombie, the walking dead.

Or not.

Or Sharknado. The worst movie since "Can Heironymus Merkin Ever Forget Mercy Humppe and Find True Happiness" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Can_Heironymus_Merkin_Ever_Forget_Mercy_Humppe_and_Find_True_Happiness%3F

---

I will add, though, that if I had for the first time, just now, looked at the visible satellite loop and did not know what the recon. found, and had not seen any land or ship reports for days: at first glance I would guess there is an intensifying tropical storm out there with excellent banded-looking outflow already established.

[funster]

I believe I have read every single Dorian post. They were all highly entertaining. Great job everyone. Keep up the good work when the E-storm arrives

[blp]

Amazing this is only a wave.

[funster]

It still has time to pull a final surprise but keeps losing its battle to the shear.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Amazing this is only a wave.

Notice where the new convection just started firing? Its in the area where the lower pressure was observed at the end of the recon flight (before they climbed out)

[SFLcane]

Aren't conditions ahead near the Bahamas more favorable in terms of lower shear increasing sst's and decreased trade wind flow? Think this wave still has some chance to develope starting tommorow. We shall see

[Nimbus]

Mid level circulation is completely detached and probably will dissipate.
Wave should follow BAMS for now if it survives.
BAMD diverges west near the Keys in the event shear environment improves.
Might be a rainmaker for west coast Florida but i'm not buying lawn seed yet.