ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Amazing this is only a wave.

Best looking TW I've ever seen! If I didn't know what was currently going on with this and just randomly saw this on sattelite I would probably give it a 90-100% chance of developing into a TC in the next 48hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

It's almost kind of sad this couldn't get it's act together by looking at that satellite imagery. Been about a week dealing with Dorian as of now.

[Dean4Storms]

We need a new category. Maybe Mid Level Tropical Storms, one of the most impressive Mid Level Rotations with a nice Anti-Cyclone on top that I can ever remember seeing.

[gatorcane]

We need a new category. Maybe Mid Level Tropical Storms, one of the most impressive Mid Level Rotations with a nice Anti-Cyclone on top that I can ever remember seeing.

I have to admit it looks darn good as a "Mid-Level T.S.."

Maybe we can track it..."Dorian's mid-level remnants discussion"...looks like it is drifting north to me

P.S. It's building some new convection as some have noted. Here we go again maybe?

[Dean4Storms]

We need a new category. Maybe Mid Level Tropical Storms, one of the most impressive Mid Level Rotations with a nice Anti-Cyclone on top that I can ever remember seeing.

I have to admit it looks darn good as a "Mid-Level T.S.."

Maybe we can track it..."Dorian's mid-level remnants discussion"...looks like it is drifting north to me

P.S. It's building some new convection as some have noted. Here we go again maybe?

And the wild thing is that you can easily see the low level clouds passing east to west right through it like it isn't even there. Amazing!

[bamajammer4eva]

Tweet from JB. Yeah I bet it would be named if it looked like this 1000 miles E of the Islands.

[Hurricane Alexis]

If it approaches FL looking like that, I wonder what the public will think about it.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If I didn't know any better, I would say this is a hurricane.

[bahamaswx]

Tweet from JB. Yeah I bet it would be named if it looked like this 1000 miles E of the Islands.

[img]http://i40.tinypic.com/2wbtjds.jpg[img]

Don't need recon; oscat would reveal that there's nothing at the surface.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think a main problem is pressures are just way to high in the vicinity to get anything going.

[Alyono]

JB again ignores science...

not a bash, but an honest observation

[NDG]

What we need to take out of Dorian and Chantal is that any storms forming east of the lesser Antilles seem to be taking a track towards FL and or the SE US. This could very well be the tracks setting up for the rest of the season, hopefully the dry stable air hangs around a bit longer at the MDR.

But these storms are much much weaker compared to say the Frances and Jeanne from 2004 so they are probably being steered a little farther south. Plus there has been more troughs swinging through the East coast as of recently.

2004 also had plenty of Eastern US troughs in July and August. The Atlantic ridge has been fairly strong, and for Dorian to make it to at least to the Bahamas if not to FL in some form is fairly remarkable, even if Dorian would had been stronger by now there a 594+ dm ridge at h50 over Bermuda that would had not it recurve out to sea.

[Ntxw]

Satellite loop

[Hurricane Alexis]

Shear doesn't look too bad a day from now. Maybe I'm reading the maps wrong...

[ninel conde]

I think a main problem is pressures are just way to high in the vicinity to get anything going.

good point. i have brought this up a few times. background pressures in the atlantic are quite high making it very difficult for a surface low to maintain for long.

[beoumont]

If it approaches FL looking like that, I wonder what the public will think about it.

I might just invest in a hot air balloon, and an oxygen tank.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We are lucky Dorian degenerated when it did. Had the storm remained a tropical cyclone, its anticyclone butting up against the upper-level trough would've resulted in a phenomenal upper-air setup and plenty of divergence for rapid intensification. We would probably be watching a quickly intensifying hurricane, or near hurricane, as the GFS once showed.

21z wind shear map from UW-CIMSS shows wind shear has decreased some ahead of 91L. Still high enough to be disruptive.

Wind shear map

[BigB0882]

It looks to be completely stationary on one of the loops I saw, which says to me this thing is completely detached and moving in different directions because it should not be stalling out there.

[SapphireSea]

We are lucky Dorian degenerated when it did. Had the storm remained a tropical cyclone, its anticyclone butting up against the upper-level trough would've resulted in a phenomenal upper-air setup and plenty of divergence for rapid intensification. We would probably be watching a quickly intensifying hurricane, or near hurricane, as the GFS once showed.

21z wind shear map from UW-CIMSS shows wind shear has decreased some ahead of 91L. Still high enough to be disruptive.

Wind shear map

I was noting that shear is trending down, the TUTT is trending towards dissipation. If the MLC and wave axis can survive to see another DMAX maybe it may get going again, although chances are slim. NHC chances look good I'd say 20-30%. The major trough that is in the NE extending down to under Ohio is going to be an unsung player here, according to local NWS offices, there is some confidence in this being picked up and taken out to sea. See the NWS discussion.

[SapphireSea]

It looks to be completely stationary on one of the loops I saw, which says to me this thing is completely detached and moving in different directions because it should not be stalling out there.

That's shear in action. Shear is the difference of windspeeds at each steering layer, as we know, wind direction also is a factor, you have all this mid-level moisture hanging out due to weaker currents, and all the low-level and surface stuff going off towards the west. The upper anti-cylone feature creates the cirrus outflow that has kept this on lifesupport for a bit. Local mets in Florida are pretty confident in this being a bit more east than forecast, due to a longwave trough coming in.