ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Nothing left of Dorian now. Can't find a wave axis. Thunderstorms SE of the upper low are not related to Dorian. Now, let's enjoy the next 2 weeks of no activity (according to the GFS).

Sounds good to me!

[hurrtracker79]

Well, I think I can see what's left of the old surface circulation, a tiny spin moving over the far SE Bahama islands, quite discombobulated.

I agree, this thing is toast. The jury has spoken. Dead by way of shear.

[Downdraft]

So how does it look for this mess to recurve up the west coast of Florida and create a big rain event for the state? We really don't need anymore water right now in central Florida.

[wxman57]

So how does it look for this mess to recurve up the west coast of Florida and create a big rain event for the state? We really don't need anymore water right now in central Florida.

Looking better for Florida. Those storms on the eastern side of the upper low aren't moving toward Florida. Not much of Dorian now. Just regular daytime storms over the next week across Florida.

[hurrtracker79]

So how does it look for this mess to recurve up the west coast of Florida and create a big rain event for the state? We really don't need anymore water right now in central Florida.

I am not a meteorologist, but it seems unlikley there will be any big concerns associated with the remnants. It will probably just aid in enhancing typical afternoon thunderstorms...Don't see any potential flooding issues for the sunshine state from Dorian. Refer to your local NWS office at weather.gov for more details.

[Dave]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 30 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN CANCELED BY NHC AT 30/1610Z.

[Dave]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 30 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN CANCELED BY NHC AT 30/1610Z.

[sfwx]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM EDT TUE JUL 30 2013/

THE MAIN CONCERN HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD IS HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF DORIAN. THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF RE-
INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL HAVE THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

[Blown Away]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT SPREADS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

It's over!

[northjaxpro]

Wxman57, I think it is about time to really get Bones back and call it like it is! I have long past grown weary of this system and the ULL has finally put the whammy on ex-Dorian. We can finally move on and look ahead to what August may have in store for us.

[cycloneye]

Yes, after what I am posting here bring Bones.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al912013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307301744
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Tireman4]

And that, as they say, is that. Next.....

[bahamaswx]

Farewell to what was yesterday the prettiest tropical wave ever.

[Dean4Storms]

Kind of amazing that Dorian developed way out there in the Atlantic surrounded by dry air except for a moisture feed from the ITCZ and the cooler SST's in the first place.

Really has me concerned for Mid- August onward!

[sunnyday]

As they say, "Much ado..."

[tailgater]

I did have a good time watching him fight. Going to Miami Thursday so I guess I won't have to worry about evacuation traffic.

[abajan]

Farewell to what was yesterday the prettiest tropical wave ever.

Without a doubt. Most people who saw those satellite loops would have sworn they were viewing a tropical storm, if not a full blown hurricane!

[Extratropical94]

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

[fci]

I did have a good time watching him fight. Going to Miami Thursday so I guess I won't have to worry about evacuation traffic.

Rush hour will give you all the traffic you need.

[northtxboy]

I see the eye!!!!!!!!