Strong SAL outbreak

[HURAKAN]

Impressive

[ninel conde]

one of the biggest i have ever seen. sadly, up till now SAL hadnt been an inhibiting factor.

[Hurricaneman]

Nothing is going to form in that area with that SAL there, maybe another week before there is a somewhat more favorable setup

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

one of the biggest i have ever seen. sadly, up till now SAL hadnt been an inhibiting factor.

actually, it has been. Was the main reason for the death of Chantal and Dorian.

Too many here only think of SAL as dry air. Nearly everyone here forgets that at the leading edge of the SAL is a low level easterly wind jet that causes severe shear over TCs. Killed Chantal and Dorian

[Hurricaneman]

one of the biggest i have ever seen. sadly, up till now SAL hadnt been an inhibiting factor.

actually, it has been. Was the main reason for the death of Chantal and Dorian.

Too many here only think of SAL as dry air. Nearly everyone here forgets that at the leading edge of the SAL is a low level easterly wind jet that causes severe shear over TCs. Killed Chantal and Dorian

and one thing can be said, the combination of the dry air and or high trade winds are not very conducive for development, several storms had this problem and here is a list of them{There might be a few storms listed here erroneously that may have been killed by the TUTT and not SAL}

2000 TD2
2000 Chris
2000 Helene
2000 Joyce
2001 TD2
2001 Chantal
2001 Erin until 25N
2001 Felix until slowing down at 45W and turning north
2001 Jerry
2002 Dolly
2002 TD7
2002 Isidore until the Western Caribbean
2003 TD2
2003 Claudette until the western Caribbean
2003 TD6
2003 TD14
2004 Bonnie until it got North of the trade winds in the southern gulf
2004 Earl
2005 Irene until near Bermuda
2005 TD10
2006 Chris
2006 Debby
2006 Florence
2008 Josephine
2008 Nana
2009 Ana
2009 Fred
2009 Henri
2010 Colin
2010 Gaston
2011 Emily
2011 Maria until heading north north of Puerto Rico
2011 Ophelia until North of the islands heading north
2011 Phillipe until about 25N
2012 Ernesto until the Western Caribbean
2012 Florence
2012 Helene
2012 Isaac until the central Gulf
2012 Joyce
2012 Leslie until about 25N
2012 Nadine until about 30N
2013 Chantal
2013 Dorian

since 2000 the years 2000, 2001 2011 and 2012 have had alot of storms have SAL intrusions and either killed these storms on the list by dry air or trade wind shear

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Goes along well with my idea of less storms making it across already developed from the Eastern MDR, and more Western Atlantic & Caribbean homebrew as the true threat this season.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Goes along well with my idea of less storms making it across already developed from the Eastern MDR, and more Western Atlantic & Caribbean homebrew as the true threat this season.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SAL is very plentiful in July in any season...doesn't really have any bearing on where storms will form unless it persists well into August. As a whole, SAL has been very lacking this season, probably thanks to the negative IOD, enhanced AEJ, and tendency for the MJO to remain in or near our basin.

[cycloneye]

Updated graphic. It continues to emerge Africa very strong.

[gatorcane]

Look at the dust on this vis image. This is about as thick as you will see it:

[Cainer]

Definitely one of the stronger outbreaks we've seen in recent years. Here's an animation of the past 5 days; you can see how quickly it comes off the coast and the easterly jet Alyono mentioned pushing the non-SAL air out of the way.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Goes along well with my idea of less storms making it across already developed from the Eastern MDR, and more Western Atlantic & Caribbean homebrew as the true threat this season.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SAL is very plentiful in July in any season...doesn't really have any bearing on where storms will form unless it persists well into August. As a whole, SAL has been very lacking this season, probably thanks to the negative IOD, enhanced AEJ, and tendency for the MJO to remain in or near our basin.

we'll see

[BigB0882]

I've never seen those hot pink colors before. Very strong outbreak. How long will it take for that to go away? Could keep things quiet for the first half of August but that would still be in line with climo.

[wxman57]

I had saved the CIMSS SAL map from last July for one of my presentations. The dry air was far more expansive last July than it is today.

[HURAKAN]

latest view of the SAL outbreak

[HURAKAN]

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.p ... U.facebook

[Hurricane Alexis]

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.p ... U.facebook

That's a BIG outbreak.

[ninel conde]

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.p ... U.facebook

That's a BIG outbreak.

at least we will set a record this season. fewest clouds in history in the tropics on aug 03.

[galaxy401]

latest view of the SAL outbreak

You can virtually see the dust getting blown off the Sahara.

[Ntxw]

An extra layer of sand for the Atlantic beach goers? . Those are some amazing shots posted!

[hurricaneCW]

Does the big change in the NAO have anything to do with this massive SAL outbreak given it was mostly neutral/positive since mid June and now it should stay mostly negative?

Also how will the -NAO affect the MDR, warmer SST's, more convective activity, lower pressures perhaps?