Tropical Wave in C Atlantic (Dropped from Surface Analysis)

Gustywind · #1 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 7:05 am

8AM discussion

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N33W TO 11N32W TO 08N31W MOVING W
AT 5 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED
AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 11N32W. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Gustywind · #2 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 7:39 am

Cycloneye

, do the models do something with that or let it as twave status? Any idea about that?

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 7:51 am

Gustywind wrote:Cycloneye , do the models do something with that or let it as twave status? Any idea about that?

The models don't do anything with this wave.

#4 Postby **abajan** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 7:54 am

Initially, I couldn't see anything near those coordinates when I checked the WV satellite imagery but it's very clear to see on the visible loop.
Should be interesting.

Gustywind · #5 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:26 am

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Cycloneye , do the models do something with that or let it as twave status? Any idea about that?

The models don't do anything with this wave.

Thanks.

Gustywind · #6 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:27 am

abajan wrote:Initially, I couldn't see anything near those coordinates when I checked the WV satellite imagery but it's very clear to see on the visible loop.
Should be interesting.

Interresting Abajan

. Maybe a twave reaching the EC during the next couple of days bringing some rain showers and no more. Let's enjoy the last beautiful days of July.

Gustywind · #7 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 3:23 pm

2 PM discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N33W TO 04N33W MOVING W NEAR 5
KT. AS NOTED IN THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT...SAHARAN
DRY AIR SPREADS OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS S OF 08N ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

Gustywind · #8 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 7:37 pm

8PM TWD.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N32W TO 18N34W MOVING W AT 5 KT.
THE WAVE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE WRAPPED UP IN A
MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
NOTED AS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N33W ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 05N-11N
BETWEEN 28W-35W.

Gustywind · #9 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 5:36 am

2AM TWD.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N34W TO 11N32W TO 08N31W MOVING W
AT 5 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED
AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1016 MB LOW
NEAR 11N32W. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Gustywind · #10 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:16 am

8AM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 10N33W TO 07N33W MOVING W
AT 5 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED
AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 10N33W. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

#11 Postby **abajan** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 9:14 am

Gustywind wrote:8AM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 10N33W TO 07N33W MOVING W
AT 5 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED
AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 10N33W. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

So, apparently both the pressure and latitude have dropped quite a bit. Perhaps bears watching.

Hurricaneman · #12 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 10:56 am

abajan wrote:
Gustywind wrote:8AM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 10N33W TO 07N33W MOVING W
AT 5 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED
AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 10N33W. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
So, apparently both the pressure and latitude have dropped quite a bit. Perhaps bears watching.

The current SAL outbreak is going to keep this in check and most likely prohibit any real development

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Gustywind · #13 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:02 pm

2PM TWD.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 04N33W MOVING W NEAR 5
KT. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLIGHTLY MOISTER ENVIRONMENT S OF 07N OR THE
PORTION OF THE WAVE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS IN THIS REGION OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...N OF 07N THERE IS SAL
DRY AIR SPARSED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING
CONVECTION. A SAL OUTBREAK WITH VERY DRY AIR IS JUST BEHIND THIS
WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THIS
OUTBREAK MAY ACT TO DISSIPATE THE WAVE BY EARLY THURSDAY.

HurricaneDREW92 · #14 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:11 pm

I think this will have to be watched in the least Ill give it a 5% chance to develop because of the SAL which will hinder convection and of course development.

HurricaneDREW92 · #15 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:47 pm

Could someone post a picture of the suspect area?

floridasun78 · #16 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 5:19 pm

it by 20w west of afica

HurricaneDREW92 · #17 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:00 pm

floridasun78 wrote: it by 20w west of afica

Interesting, seems fairly healthy and in a fairly good enviroment. Wonder if we may see this in the 8pm TWO.

Hurricane Alexis · #18 Postby **Hurricane Alexis** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:11 pm

SAL will kill it soon.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

floridasun78 · #19 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:16 pm

here what Hurricane Alexis saying http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time it have stay south of SAL

Gustywind · #20 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:18 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:
floridasun78 wrote: it by 20w west of afica

Interesting, seems fairly healthy and in a fairly good enviroment. Wonder if we may see this in the 8pm TWO.

NHC predictions does not favor and support the good environnement you're speaking about. Thus, it has to deal with a fairly good amount of SAL and dry air. :darrow:

2PM TWD.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 04N33W MOVING W NEAR 5
KT. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLIGHTLY MOISTER ENVIRONMENT S OF 07N OR THE
PORTION OF THE WAVE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS IN THIS REGION OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...N OF 07N THERE IS SAL
DRY AIR SPARSED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING
CONVECTION. A SAL OUTBREAK WITH VERY DRY AIR IS JUST BEHIND THIS
WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THIS
OUTBREAK MAY ACT TO DISSIPATE THE WAVE BY EARLY THURSDAY.

Tropical Wave in C Atlantic (Dropped from Surface Analysis)

Tropical Wave in C Atlantic (Dropped from Surface Analysis)

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