Strong SAL outbreak

[JonathanBelles]

With those graphics, I wonder if this might be the wave of SAL that makes it to Florida and turns the sunrises and sunsets amazing shades of orange and pink.

[ninel conde]

Does the big change in the NAO have anything to do with this massive SAL outbreak given it was mostly neutral/positive since mid June and now it should stay mostly negative?

Also how will the -NAO affect the MDR, warmer SST's, more convective activity, lower pressures perhaps?

theoretically a -NAO would destroy atlantic ridging like the last 3 seasons which would mean few threats to the US like the last 3 years. If the ridge is destroyed then pressures over the deep tropics should lower. if the air were normally moist and instability was higher i would say an active MDR would be likely with most or all storms recurving east of bermuda. i doubt it has anything to do with the latest SAL outbreak.

this is the current GFS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=000hr

the NAO is just turning negative now. notice how the ridge is so powerful. also notice how the powerful ridge is aligned sw to ne along the african coastline. noice also the lower pressure also aligned sw to ne over africa. with the flow around the high and low its perfect to draw down a massive dry dusty outbreak. totally perfect. also notice how high pressures are over the tropics. nothing could form in that.

now notice how the GFS LOOKS AT 180 hours

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

the -NAO has done its dirty work, or is beginning to. pressues are low all across the US and we can see the trof forming off the east coast. as far as SAL goes, notice how the high isnt aligned all along the african coast and is further offshore with low pressures over the african continent extending offshore. this should cut off the massive SAL outbreak and i predict in a week SAL wont be a problem and if the -NAO continues you can expect lowering pressures over the deep tropics and a weaker atlantic ridge as each day goes by.

[Hurricane Alexis]

These are usually the outbreaks that bring hazy, bone-dry sunny days to Florida.

[ninel conde]

by the way, here is the 18z gfs at 180 hours. much weaker ridge, east coast trof, and you can see how much lower pressures are over the deep tropics as compared to now.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

SAL will be quite weak if that verifies.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Setup looks just like last year and year before. Its no wonder the gfs is showing no development for the next two weeks.

[ConvergenceZone]

As intense as the SAL is, I still think we will get some tropical activity cooking going in September.....

[cycloneye]

As intense as the SAL is, I still think we will get some tropical activity cooking going in September.....

Nothing in August?

[ninel conde]

As intense as the SAL is, I still think we will get some tropical activity cooking going in September.....

in years with no august activity we are talking deadsville season.

[ninel conde]

Setup looks just like last year and year before. Its no wonder the gfs is showing no development for the next two weeks.

actually, if the 180 hr gfs is right i would expect some development around the 10th.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

As intense as the SAL is, I still think we will get some tropical activity cooking going in September.....

If people keep pushing things back and say just wait two more weeks, three more weeks, next month, etc. We will be tracking winter storms across the US, not tropical storms.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Setup looks just like last year and year before. Its no wonder the gfs is showing no development for the next two weeks.

actually, if the 180 hr gfs is right i would expect some development around the 10th.

But there looks like that there could be a pretty strong east coast trough once again. That's what I was alluding to.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think we can all agree that the Atlantic will be during the next week or so. I think after August 7 we will see development.


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[ninel conde]

Setup looks just like last year and year before. Its no wonder the gfs is showing no development for the next two weeks.

actually, if the 180 hr gfs is right i would expect some development around the 10th.

But there looks like that there could be a pretty strong east coast trough once again. That's what I was alluding to.

true, there will be no US threat, but things could change.

[SCUBAdude]

Ok, I came to this discussion because everything around my house has a thin layer of sand on it. A stainless table out back I cleaned a couple of days ago and especially my daughter's black 65 impala super sport. Both washed a couple of days ago. Although I live very near the beach we have not had any kind of wind to speak of since I cleaned.
So is this SAL sand dropping out of the sky here in beautiful coastal Alabama?

[Gustywind]

Hey peps a SAL outbreak should not be a way to let our guard down ... as August approaches. All season has up and down parts so things could turn quickly than predicted.
In the past seasons, July is often a month with numerous SAL outbreaks. Am i wrong?

We should focus on the buisness of August and its surprises for sure. Stay focus and on your guard as usual.

[ConvergenceZone]

As intense as the SAL is, I still think we will get some tropical activity cooking going in September.....

Nothing in August?

Call me skeptical, but I'm one of those, "I'll believe it when I see it" when it comes to the tropics......

[Ntxw]

Hey peps a SAL outbreak should not be a way to let our guard down ... as August approaches. All season has up and down parts so things could turn quickly than predicted.
In the past seasons, July is often a month with numerous SAL outbreaks. Am i wrong?

We should focus on the buisness of August and its surprises for sure. Stay focus and on your guard as usual.

July is practically over tomorrow is the last day and we are in August. Lets put all this July talk Behind us. This SAL event will be spreading into the Western Atlantic based on the maps posted into early August. What are some other early August SAL outbreaks that compares to this one?

[gatorcane]

Great pictures Hurakan - amazing view of the latest SAL outbreak.

Is it usual to have this intense of a SAL outbreak this time of year? I know WxMan57 said it was even worse this year than last year around this time, but is this all normal?

I always thought SAL was more of a July event for the Atlantic basin.

[NDG]

With those graphics, I wonder if this might be the wave of SAL that makes it to Florida and turns the sunrises and sunsets amazing shades of orange and pink.

Here in central FL I have seen already a couple of times that the African dust has made it in after a couple of tropical waves, though very very light compared to last year.
If the latest SAL outbreak makes it here I will make sure I wait to wash my car after the African dust finish settling down, afternoon showers do a nice job of bringing down the dust in raindrops dirtying up the cars,

[Hurricane Alexis]

Latest graphic of the outbreak.



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