Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

Don't forget the troughing the global models are showing is for the first couple of weeks of August plus they may not be correct especially as you go out beyond 168 hours and especially 240 hours.

Also, there is no reason this trough won't be replaced by strong ridging down the road in mid to late August or even September and beyond.

The long wave pattern is not constant and changes periodically. Last year we learned even sometimes in November the trough cannot save us (Re: Sandy).

I think the global models are going to start latching on to something to form around the Aug 15th-Aug 20th timeframe looking at the climate prediction center forecast for instability across the Atlantic basin, the last couple of runs of the GFS out through 384 hours which basically shows nothing, and the latest long-range CFS run.

Of course this doesn't mean something may not form sooner that the global models did not forecast(RE: Chantal).

[CYCLONE MIKE]

We shall see gatorcane, we shall see. But on the other hand even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while and they could be correct Just the pattern has been so constant so far starting to have serious doubts the season is going to be half as bad as the predictions were saying. Not talking overall number of storms, but talking hurricanes land falling hurricanes/storms. Especially in my area in of the gulf coast. But total number of storms might be needed to be reduced as well.

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z GFS has a healthy wave rolling off Africa at about 108 hours.



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[LaBreeze]

00z GFS has a healthy wave rolling off Africa at about 108 hours.

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/6941/zpz.gif

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SAL should affect it, shouldn't it?

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z GFS has a healthy wave rolling off Africa at about 108 hours.

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/6941/zpz.gif

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SAL should affect it, shouldn't it?

Could be, the rest of the run kills it off. But, it's 5+ days out so it could all change.

[Hurricane Alexis]

CMC ensembles still showing low pressures off Africa in 10 days.



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[ninel conde]

cmc looks like a repeat of the last several years. big east coast trof.

[Dean4Storms]

Both CMC and ECMWF 00z runs this morning showing Low Pressure dropping SW from NE Gulf toward the South Central Gulf by 240 hours. The ECMWF closes the Low off at 240 hr.

[NDG]

ECMWF's long range forecast shows possible tropical development in the eastern GOM from a frontal boundary/trough in the SE US next week, earlier 12z run also showed falling pressures. (BTW, notice the 600+ dm Atlantic ridge it shows building again)

[hurricaneCW]

cmc looks like a repeat of the last several years. big east coast trof.

Models are showing ridging rebuilding around the time tropical activity starts to pick up. The subtropical ridging and Western Atlantic Ridge has been much more prominent than in the past few years.

The east coast trough is looking to retrograde by mid August opening the door for east coast landfalls if anything should come that way.

['CaneFreak]

This is getting annoying with the east coast trough posts. Please stop. Thanks.

cmc looks like a repeat of the last several years. big east coast trof.

[tolakram]

GFS 6Z shows a 1004MB low in the east Atlantic. Simulated IR shows precipitation making its way across the Atlantic into the Caribbean by the end of the run. Long range, but something to keep an eye on for future runs.

[StormTracker]

There is climo & history, there are models & predictions, there are also mets(some that are pretty damn good), forecasters & just plain old weather-interested members such as myself that are here to try to learn and figure out what will happen in the future with the weather! May I remind everyone that there are higher powers involved in the evolution of our weather! Sometimes I think we get a little too overly wound up in "this is right/this is wrong" or I'm right/your'e wrong". Technology has brought us a long way in our trek to "getting the track right & exact" but i think we can all agree that we are imperfect human beings striving to get ever so close to perfection! That's why we are all here on S2K right? Now, back to the global model runs discussions. Only time will tell what's gonna be stronger and win out between the troughs vs. the strong Atlantic ridging that I personally don't remember seeing lasting this long & strong for a few seasons now!

[andrewsurvivor]

You are so right ST. Have been in Miami since 1980 and remember writing off another year in '92 and we know what happened then. It's still early and the peak of the season may bring surprises we can't see yet. While we all enjoy storm tracking, a year with no major storm making landfall is always welcome

[cycloneye]

Finnally,activity in the models of different scenarios but at least is a change from not having anything. Let's see what the 12z package has.

[Hurricaneman]

Finnally,activity in the models of different scenarios but at least is a change from not having anything. Let's see what the 12z package has.

yep, the 6zGFS says that a wave over central Africa will become a low at day 5 and drifts north until hr 180 which seems weird and basically shoots it west all the way into the Caribbean where the low dissipates

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

I noticed that the models seem to develop near Africa after the current bout of SAL ends and it seems that may be the beginning of the meat of the hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

The 12z Canadian has gone back to its old ways. Two Hurricanes in the long range.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS, still something past 192 but nothing up till then.

Canadian showing something means, to me anyway, that conditions will be more favorable. The Euro is doing horrible in the deep tropics this year, showing nothing in the EPAC either, so GFS will be the one to watch.

[supercane4867]

The 12z Canadian has gone back to its old ways. Two Hurricanes in the long range.

This is likely an error, these two storms were actually in the WPAC according to 10m wind map