Global model runs discussion

[Extratropical94]

The 12z Canadian has gone back to its old ways. Two Hurricanes in the long range.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_40.png

This is likely an error, these two storms were actually in the WPAC according to 10m wind map

http://i.imgur.com/by1mO5R.png

And I was wondering why the surface pressures were sub-1000 in the GOM...

[supercane4867]

Nothing here

[ninel conde]

Nothing here

http://i.imgur.com/n5OVDBr.png

hardly a shock, notice how high the pressures are in the tropical atlantic. 1014 with a high sitting in the middle. notice in the east pac pressures are around 1008. euro may have nailed the lack of a cane season due to higher than normal pressures. also, that big high is right back in a perfect position to welcome back super SAL. no wonder mr bastardi isnt mentioning any kind of tropical activity as the aug/sept peak begins tomorrow. first half of aug is likely to be rather dry in the tropics. with a set-up like that the ITCZ will either be way too far south or nearly extinct.

[xcool22]

I agree ninel conde /I think euro have nailed it imo

[ninel conde]

I agree ninel conde /I think euro have nailed it imo

yea, nothing is going to develop with the quadruple whammy of SAL, bone dry regular air, high pressures, and a strong easterly jet

[Alyono]

this board would have melted down in 1998 due to the EARLY SEASON inactivity

Only turned out to be the single worst cane season ever, with the exception of the war time 1781 season

[Riptide]

Iagree ninel conde /I think euro have nailed it imo

yea, nothing is going to develop with the quadruple whammy of SAL, bone dry regular air, high pressures, and a strong easterly jet

[wxman57]

Two weeks of quiet tropical weather. Perhaps I can finally get some work done.

[tolakram]

hardly a shock, notice how high the pressures are in the tropical atlantic. 1014 with a high sitting in the middle. notice in the east pac pressures are around 1008. euro may have nailed the lack of a cane season due to higher than normal pressures. also, that big high is right back in a perfect position to welcome back super SAL. no wonder mr bastardi isnt mentioning any kind of tropical activity as the aug/sept peak begins tomorrow. first half of aug is likely to be rather dry in the tropics. with a set-up like that the ITCZ will either be way too far south or nearly extinct.

I'm growing weary of the Bastardi references and the same thing being posted over and over. He's one met, and his track record is not very good. You've made your case, now we wait and see what happens.

[ninel conde]

this board would have melted down in 1998 due to the EARLY SEASON inactivity

Only turned out to be the single worst cane season ever, with the exception of the war time 1781 season

good point, but what were the overall conditions back in 1998? did the waves off africa have plenty of moisture with them even though they didnt develop early? 2004 didnt get started till about now but in 2004 the tropical instabilty was very favorable in june/july. the conditions we are seeing now are just extensions of a multi-year trend of dry air and low instability in the deep tropics.

[ninel conde]

hardly a shock, notice how high the pressures are in the tropical atlantic. 1014 with a high sitting in the middle. notice in the east pac pressures are around 1008. euro may have nailed the lack of a cane season due to higher than normal pressures. also, that big high is right back in a perfect position to welcome back super SAL. no wonder mr bastardi isnt mentioning any kind of tropical activity as the aug/sept peak begins tomorrow. first half of aug is likely to be rather dry in the tropics. with a set-up like that the ITCZ will either be way too far south or nearly extinct.

I'm growing weary of the Bastardi references and the same thing being posted over and over. He's one met, and his track record is not very good. You've made your case, now we wait and see what happens.

no problem.

[Riptide]

hardly a shock, notice how high the pressures are in the tropical atlantic. 1014 with a high sitting in the middle. notice in the east pac pressures are around 1008. euro may have nailed the lack of a cane season due to higher than normal pressures. also, that big high is right back in a perfect position to welcome back super SAL. no wonder mr bastardi isnt mentioning any kind of tropical activity as the aug/sept peak begins tomorrow. first half of aug is likely to be rather dry in the tropics. with a set-up like that the ITCZ will either be way too far south or nearly extinct.

I'm growing weary of the Bastardi references and the same thing being posted over and over. He's one met, and his track record is not very good. You've made your case, now we wait and see what happens.

no problem.

Anyone in their right mind would realize that developmental opportunities can appear with no recent model support and things can change on a dime in the tropics. The Euro monthly forecasts have been trending towards lower pressures.

[TheStormExpert]

hardly a shock, notice how high the pressures are in the tropical atlantic. 1014 with a high sitting in the middle. notice in the east pac pressures are around 1008. euro may have nailed the lack of a cane season due to higher than normal pressures. also, that big high is right back in a perfect position to welcome back super SAL. no wonder mr bastardi isnt mentioning any kind of tropical activity as the aug/sept peak begins tomorrow. first half of aug is likely to be rather dry in the tropics. with a set-up like that the ITCZ will either be way too far south or nearly extinct.

I'm growing weary of the Bastardi references and the same thing being posted over and over. He's one met, and his track record is not very good. You've made your case, now we wait and see what happens.

I remember back in 2010 when he was still with AccuWeather predicting the U.S. to be under the gun with above normal threats from tropical cyclones. And of course the complete opposite happend, 19 storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and 0 U.S. HURRICANE LANDFALLS.

[Ptarmigan]

this board would have melted down in 1998 due to the EARLY SEASON inactivity

Only turned out to be the single worst cane season ever, with the exception of the war time 1781 season

I have notice seasons that start late tend to be the worst in terms of lives loss. Probably it makes people complacent. People think a late starting season is less dangerous.

[cycloneye]

this board would have melted down in 1998 due to the EARLY SEASON inactivity

Only turned out to be the single worst cane season ever, with the exception of the war time 1781 season

I have notice seasons that start late tend to be the worst in terms of lives loss. Probably it makes people complacent. People think a late starting season is less dangerous.

Those kind of seasons trend to be more homegrown than traditional CV ones but we will see what happens.

[galaxy401]

this board would have melted down in 1998 due to the EARLY SEASON inactivity

Only turned out to be the single worst cane season ever, with the exception of the war time 1781 season

I have notice seasons that start late tend to be the worst in terms of lives loss. Probably it makes people complacent. People think a late starting season is less dangerous.

Those kind of seasons trend to be more homegrown than traditional CV ones but we will see what happens.

Not exactly. 1998 had many Cape Verde storms including Georges. 2004 and 2010 also had slow starts and there were many Cape Verde storms. Many of the deadly storms were homegrown though.

[BigB0882]

I find the idea of relying on the EURO kind of funny. I know model wars are pointless but the Euro has been off its meds lately. The Euro was insisting we would be in an El Nino for what seemed like forever. Well after it was clear that we would not be close to an El Nino. It might still be insisting on that, who knows! Something is not right with that model this year and it is a shame because typically I relied on it more than any other. It can still get some things right, of course, but just because the Euro is saying something does not mean I am worrying about it...at least not this season.

[Alyono]

this board would have melted down in 1998 due to the EARLY SEASON inactivity

Only turned out to be the single worst cane season ever, with the exception of the war time 1781 season

good point, but what were the overall conditions back in 1998? did the waves off africa have plenty of moisture with them even though they didnt develop early? 2004 didnt get started till about now but in 2004 the tropical instabilty was very favorable in june/july. the conditions we are seeing now are just extensions of a multi-year trend of dry air and low instability in the deep tropics.

the tropics had a whole 1 badly sheared TS until mid/late August that year. Nothing else really had a chance of developing

[HURRICANELONNY]

For those of you that think it will be a slow season. I hope your right but I seriously doubt it. The SST are starting to warm back up. The SAL is normal this time of year. Can't relate this year to 2005. Doesn't come close even though it looked a little like it earlier in the season. I hope no landfalls. Season here in FL. doesn't really start til mid Aug thru Oct. I'm getting my propane tank refilled and lubing the shutter tracks this weekend. We got time. So get prepared.

[Ptarmigan]

Not exactly. 1998 had many Cape Verde storms including Georges. 2004 and 2010 also had slow starts and there were many Cape Verde storms. Many of the deadly storms were homegrown though.

1961, 1998, and 2004 had higher ACE/Storm than 2005. 2005 had less long lived Cape Verde storms. I think late starting seasons are dangerous as I said before people think a late starter means less active and let their guards down. Than again people were complacent in 2005. I have to wonder if 1780 and 1900 hurricane season were late bloomers as well.

Most of the death from Mitch (1998) and Jeanne (2004) were from heavy rain and flooding. People think "weaker" storms are less dangerous. Mitch hit Central America as a Category 1 hurricane and dumped +100 inches of rain and claimed 20,000 lives.