Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

[HurricaneDREW92]

Great convection, any development?

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest:
http://imageshack.us/a/img51/2339/iut0.jpg

[BigB0882]

Looks nice but I have to wonder about that enormous SAL outbreak. It would truly have to create a huge moisture field to take with it for the entire life of its run. It ITCZ is still displaced so far south so I don't think it can pull from that for moisture, either. I just don't see how this wave could survive for long out there, maybe if it was rolling off a week later.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has been off and on with development of this wave, but the wave ahead might clear the SAL enough for this to develop kind of like the lead wave sacrificing itself for the wave behind it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[abajan]

Looks pretty good but they often do when they're emerging from Africa, only to lose much of their convection as they progress westward. With all the SAL currently out there, I won't expect too much from this but we should still monitor it.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I think we will see some development of this system but can someone show what the GFSs last few runs have looked like?

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS does develop this a little, but doesnt do much

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest SAL: http://imageshack.us/a/img27/7198/5ufl.jpg

[HurricaneDREW92]

The 18zGFS does develop this a little, but doesnt do much

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Could you post a run of that, Hurricaneman?

[Hurricaneman]

I cant don't have any image hosting accounts, is there anyone who can give the 18zGFS graphics

[HurricaneDREW92]

Potential scenarios anyone? I'm going with TS ERIN over Puerto Rico. Its MUCH too far away to make a decent guess, though. Anyone else dare to try?

[tolakram]

I think we have enough guessing threads (perhaps one is too many?), let's not go there with this one please.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Fair enough Tolakram, what are your thoughts on the current wave and the next 24-48hrs when it leaves Africa?

[ROCK]

Fair enough Tolakram, what are your thoughts on the current wave and the next 24-48hrs when it leaves Africa?

it will perform a SAL sacrifice for the sake of the next wave behind it....if there was a decent wave behind it...

[HurricaneDREW92]

Fair enough Tolakram, what are your thoughts on the current wave and the next 24-48hrs when it leaves Africa?

it will perform a SAL sacrifice for the sake of the next wave behind it....if there was a decent wave behind it...

True Look at all that SAL

[Nederlander]

Fair enough Tolakram, what are your thoughts on the current wave and the next 24-48hrs when it leaves Africa?

it will perform a SAL sacrifice for the sake of the next wave behind it....if there was a decent wave behind it...

True. This wave IMO is like a lead blocker.. SAL looks like a TC killer right now but it doesn't take much to change that. The next one should have a decent shot.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the
poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional
institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[abajan]

For the umpteenth time, it's the SAL behind the wave that matters, not the one in front! (Of course, I'm actually somewhat contradicting my last post above )

[Nederlander]

For the umpteenth time, it's the SAL behind the wave that matters, not the one in front! (Of course, I'm actually somewhat contradicting my last post above )

I think they both matter to an extent. If a wave has moist air in front of it, it can certainly help to sustain convection. Look at our last system. I know there were several factors involved, but I think Dorian might have survived a bit longer if it weren't for all the dry air it rammed into.

[HurricaneDREW92]

For the umpteenth time, it's the SAL behind the wave that matters, not the one in front! (Of course, I'm actually somewhat contradicting my last post above )

I think they both matter to an extent. If a wave has moist air in front of it, it can certainly help to sustain convection. Look at our last system. I know there were several factors involved, but I think Dorian might have survived a bit longer if it weren't for all the dry air it rammed into.

Emerging off Africa and looks really good!

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest:6z