Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

yeah, the season over posts are getting old...why dont someone start a thread called Season Over and posted there. This is a model run thread anyways...just sayin...

[blp]

The 12z Canadian has gone back to its old ways. Two Hurricanes in the long range.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_40.png[/img]

This is likely an error, these two storms were actually in the WPAC according to 10m wind map

http://i.imgur.com/by1mO5R.png[/img]

Sorry, good catch. I thought it was not weird considering the CMC's history. So maybe the CMC is fixed afterall

[tolakram]

We have a thread for 2013 that most of these posts should go in. If you see a new model run and feel like making a season cancel like comment in here, please don't.

[cycloneye]

Here is the link for those members who want to comment about the rest of the season.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115308&p=2326239#p2326239

['CaneFreak]

TS Allison 2001 always comes to mind as well. 40 plus inches of rain along the central TX coast but landfall max sustained winds were like 45 mph or something like that...good post.

Back on topic...the 18Z GFS is now rolling...

1961, 1998, and 2004 had higher ACE/Storm than 2005. 2005 had less long lived Cape Verde storms. I think late starting seasons are dangerous as I said before people think a late starter means less active and let their guards down. Than again people were complacent in 2005. I have to wonder if 1780 and 1900 hurricane season were late bloomers as well.

Most of the death from Mitch (1998) and Jeanne (2004) were from heavy rain and flooding. People think "weaker" storms are less dangerous. Mitch hit Central America as a Category 1 hurricane and dumped +100 inches of rain and claimed 20,000 lives.

[ROCK]

18Z GFS has nada..even in the long range...next up the 0Z GFS run tonight.

[jlauderdal]

18Z GFS has nada..even in the long range...next up the 0Z GFS run tonight.

Door is closing on texas chances for this season, sorry rock..

[Sambucol]

18Z GFS has nada..even in the long range...next up the 0Z GFS run tonight.

Door is closing on texas chances for this season, sorry rock..

I don't know about that. Hurricanes Carla, Rita, Ike and the 1900 storm that hit Galveston were all September storms. August I recall Hurricane Alicia hit the upper Texas coastline. There's probably more, but those storms came to mind. If nothing heads our way this hurricane season, that's fine with me

[WYNweather]

For those of you that think it will be a slow season. I hope your right but I seriously doubt it. The SST are starting to warm back up. The SAL is normal this time of year. Can't relate this year to 2005. Doesn't come close even though it looked a little like it earlier in the season. I hope no landfalls. Season here in FL. doesn't really start til mid Aug thru Oct. I'm getting my propane tank refilled and lubing the shutter tracks this weekend. We got time. So get prepared.

Agreed check out the link avg per moth 1851 - 2012 Aug - OCT. On the water in Pompano it is just a matter of time. Now is the time to get prepared.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E17.html

[Stormlover2012]

18Z GFS has nada..even in the long range...next up the 0Z GFS run tonight.

Door is closing on texas chances for this season, sorry rock..

Lol why would you say that, it's just now August, not even the peak of the season, door hasn't close on anybody yet

[BigB0882]

18Z GFS has nada..even in the long range...next up the 0Z GFS run tonight.

Door is closing on texas chances for this season, sorry rock..

I don't know about that. Hurricanes Carla, Rita, Ike and the 1900 storm that hit Galveston were all September storms. August I recall Hurricane Alicia hit the upper Texas coastline. There's probably more, but those storms came to mind. If nothing heads our way this hurricane season, that's fine with me

I agree, I don't really think of our season (I am in Louisiana) as being over until at least mid September. Katrina and Isaac were at the very tail end of August and Gustav was a September storm. In other words, the most recent hits on Louisiana and the upper Texas coast have all been in September or the last days of August. Troughiness, which tends to pick up come September, seems to save us but all it takes is one year where they are late to arrive.

I also think it is funny to assume a model is correct if it doesn't show any storms in the long term. We never take anything for granted if it shows a major hurricane beyond 240 hours, why do the same when a model shows nothing? It is just fantasy...either way.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,on the topic of this thread, let's see what the 00z Global Models package has as August arrives.

[SouthFloridawx]

This is all great info. The models may not be a great predictor for SAL. If only there were a way to measure that.

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z CMC has something off Florida in less than 2 days. GFS also sees it but weaker. Let's see what the Euro shows...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

It's the ULL over the SE bahamas currently producing convection.

[cycloneye]

Let's see when the models start to develop areas in the basin as August has arrived.

[RL3AO]

GFS has been showing a strong storm in the WPac next week. Looks like it is connected with the disturbance around 15N 175E.

[supercane4867]

12Z GFS fantasy land

['CaneFreak]

Yep. That may be tied to the MJO pulse that is expected to reach our portion of the Western Hemisphere by mid-month. This area appeared to be festering for several days in the Central and Western Caribbean before making it to the western GOM. This is the first sign that I have seen in several days in the modeling that hints that conditions will indeed become more favorable over time for all those nay-sayers out there

['CaneFreak]

12Z GFS 384 hour image:

[cycloneye]

You can see in this run that the ridge is more north than where it is now. That will help the ITCZ to lift northward helping things to moist a bit.