Tropical Weather Outlooks for 5 days are up

[cycloneye]

Great news.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20130725_pa_xtwo.pdf

[Extratropical94]

That is very nice to hear.
I wonder if they will start issuing 5-day TWOs for a system three days before mentioning them in the 48 h outlook or if they start both outlooks simultaneously, which would mean they'd have to begin with already very high percentages for rapidly developing systems (like waves coming off Africa in September).

[cycloneye]

With now 5 days,they will mention waves that may have potential down the road that may be in Central Africa.

[artist]

thanks for posting cycloneye
I guess we will see if this causes more anxiety or less.

[ozonepete]

Thanks for posting Luis! this has the potential to really improve both long and short range forecasts, and will give us even more understanding as to the NHC's thinking on developing systems.

[chaser1]

With now 5 days,they will mention waves that may have potential down the road that may be in Central Africa.

Wait, it gets better. NHC might technically be able to offer up a TWO with an 80% likelihood for Cyclone development for a wave still 3 days removed from the W. African Coast line, meanwhile military drones previously being tested and refitted for NOAA recon missions have been mostly recommissioned to fly over some of our major U.S. cities for "domestic survelience needs", and when Dorian's evil sister "Ingrid" starts ramping up after a brief encounter with what used to be Puerto Rico...., whats the harm in just taking a pass on dropping a few hundred dropsondes? I mean heck....with what the cost of Av-Gas is these days..... Besides, there's not THAT much difference between a Cat. 3 & a Cat 5, right?

So kewl that we can now pay professionals to provide statistical or climo tilted TWO 120 cyclogenises forecasts

[chaser1]

...sorry for the above rant. The fasten seat belt sign has now been turned off. You are free to move about the cabin

[TheStormExpert]

This should be very interesting!

[Evil Jeremy]

Unlike many other people, I don't see to many benefits of this. Is 5 days really necessary? Do we need to know that a wave inside Africa has a good chance of developing half a week down the road? We can just wait until it hits the water and assign a precentage. Rating a storm 5 days in advance won't force it to develop any quicker. I just personally think that 48 hours is the perfect amount of time for the TWOs.

[cycloneye]

First five day TWO will be at 8 AM EDT on August 1rst.

[wxman57]

With now 5 days,they will mention waves that may have potential down the road that may be in Central Africa.

Not likely. NHC doesn't mention systems that haven't moved off out over the water yet, even with the 2-day outlooks. But it will be interesting to see how they'd handle an Alicia ('83)-type development. Models may predict formation of a storm in the Gulf 3-4 days out when there is currently no identifiable disturbance. We just circle the area and mention development is possible/likley.

[tolakram]

Perhaps a grey hatched area without a percentage, discussing locations they are keeping en eye on? Will be very interesting to see.

[StormTracker]

IMO, this will definitely create more anxiety & excitement! It'll kinda fill the gaps or holes of "boring" (dead) moments like right now, of the hurricane season!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE 8 AM EDT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL BEGIN INCLUDING INFORMATION ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE FOLLOWING
FIVE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED PROBABILISTICALLY IN
10-PERCENT INCREMENTS...AND WILL SUPPLEMENT THE 48-HOUR
PROBABILISTIC FORMATION POTENTIAL ALREADY PROVIDED. THE CURRENT
GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT SHOWS THE 48-HOUR GENESIS
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. NHC IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING A
FIVE-DAY GENESIS POTENTIAL GRAPHIC THAT MAY BECOME AVAILABLE LATER
IN THE SEASON.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN

[cycloneye]

First 5 day outlook.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...USE LOWER
CASE...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
NNNN

[RL3AO]

They cleared up my question on Facebook.

----
The second percentage refers to the entire 5-day period, not days 3-5. So if the 48-hr percentage is the same as the 5-day percentage (as it is in this case), that means that any expected development is going to occur sooner rather than later.