Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

[wxman57]

It's embedded in quite a bit of dry, dusty Saharan air:

[HurricaneDREW92]

It's embedded in quite a bit of dry, dusty Saharan air:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

IK, look at that stuff And thank you to the title change to who I assume it is tolakram

[tolakram]

Not I.

It will be interesting to see if and or when SAL eats this wave.

[RL3AO]

If you look north of the wave, it looks like its continuing to shoot down the NW coast of Africa.

[wxman57]

By the way, I fixed the title.

Wave is surrounded by dust.

[cycloneye]

It has been introduced as a wave on the 12z surface analysis.

[HurricaneDREW92]

By the way, I fixed the title.

Wave is surrounded by dust.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/truecol.jpg

Oh, thanks forgot your amod cause of the blue title. Thank you

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLY TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 19N21W. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 23N21W TO 10N20W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS AND IS ALSO BEING ENGULFED BY VERY DRY AIR AND DUST
FROM THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 15W-25W.
THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

[HurricaneDREW92]

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLY TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 19N21W. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 23N21W TO 10N20W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS AND IS ALSO BEING ENGULFED BY VERY DRY AIR AND DUST
FROM THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 15W-25W.
THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

Looks very good right now:

[RL3AO]

"engulfed"

Great adjective to see on an NHC product. Describes the situation very well.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Maybe the one in central Africa, which looks healthy, may have a chance.

[HurricaneDREW92]

"engulfed"

Great adjective to see on an NHC product. Describes the situation very well.

Very true. I think the interesting part of this is how and when SAL has an impact on this system.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
EXTENDS FROM 23N21W TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N22W TO
11N22W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVE SW TO 16N26W IN 24 HOURS
WITH THE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF VERY DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

[northtxboy]

did the pressure drop alittle?

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS keeps it an identifiable convective wave so it can't be discounted completely but its got problems with dry air at the moment

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

Maybe the one in central Africa, which looks healthy, may have a chance.

The 0zGFS seems to develop this a little bit at 147hrs and holds down a low until 288hrs but doesnt move it more than 500 miles between those hours which in part of it could be the truncation of the model

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

2AM discussion


TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 23N22W
THROUGH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N23W TO 11N23W MOVING W 5 TO
10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITH A DENSE LAYER OF DRY SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

[ROCK]

I would be careful what we wish for...the SAL can work to shut down long trackers but the waves themselves could develope closer to home. That's what I am concerned with as we get into August more....

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
22N25W TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N26W TO 11N26W. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE MOVE W TO 17N30W IN 24 HOURS WITH THE WAVE.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
AREA OF VERY DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I guess this wave can sacrifice its development for the future generations