ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Checking Cuba stations: seeing light west and south winds. Pressures 1016 to 1017mb.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/index.p ... &icao=MUCA

[GCANE]

That dry slot over Cuba is filling in fast.

I think it's dead Jim - as far as the ULL is concerned.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[HurricaneBelle]

Ex-Dorian has gone full donut:

[wxman57]

Pressures in the region are high and rising. The storms are being produced by an upper-level low. There is no surface feature.

[Dean4Storms]

Pressures in the region are high and rising. The storms are being produced by an upper-level low. There is no surface feature.

Agree for now, you can see LL clouds getting drawn northward into the circulation however between it and Cuba. Not out of the question that this is trying to works its way to the surface.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS 12z does close this off at 850mb off the SE FL Coast.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[artist]

GFS 12z does close this off at 850mb off the SE FL Coast.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

so possibly lot's more rain here when we are just beginning to try to dry out?

[Weatherboy1]

Not sure, but aren't those a few low level clouds streaming into the area of convection in the neighborhood of Andros Island? Just wondering as they have that look to them on the zoom-in visible satellite imagery...

[GCANE]

With the stronger vorticity in the 700mb to 500mb range and staying south of GBI, this could catch a ride thru the FL Straits.

[GCANE]

Winds swinging around to out of the NE at Settlement Point

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=EDT

[tolakram]

You can now see low level clouds streaming toward the NE into the convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

This has fooled me many times, but boy it appears something is happening down there.

[gatorcane]

You can now see low level clouds streaming toward the NE into the convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

This has fooled me many times, but boy it appears something is happening down there.

Yeah I do see that. Looking rather interesting I must say. Given some model support, wouldn't be surprised if this is tagged an invest..NHC should mention it at 2pm outlook.

[GCANE]

Bimini, out of the north gusting to 25 mph

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/biminiobs

[GCANE]

Winds out of the south at Havana

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/havanaobs.htm

[tolakram]

Live WV loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[ronjon]

It's starting wrap up on satellite. Not sure if it's all the way to the surface yet.

[tolakram]

Reaching a bit here, but CMC and GFS show what might be a small low pressure area at the surface.

[GCANE]

3500 CAPE air over central Cuba.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

Should see massive thunderstorms fire off in a few hours and feed into this.

That should fuel it up for overnight.

Should see an interesting DMAX in the morning.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
~~~~~~~~~
12z CMC develops this feature into what looks like a hurricane off the mid-altantic states heading north. Of corse it is the CMC.

[tolakram]

This loop isn't usable yet due to the position change but repositioned over this area: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

from this page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp