ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneDREW92]

outflow boundaries vomiting up = not good for low level circulation....

The dry air killed this thing again, the nice weak surface circulation that was there 3 hours ago is now gone, lol.

I would expect a TD at 11am tomorrow, but once again, just an amateur

What does anyone see we'll see at the 8pm TWO?
EDIT: Last few good visible loops of the day. Saved image.



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[HURAKAN]

outflow boundaries vomiting up = not good for low level circulation....

The dry air killed this thing again, the nice weak surface circulation that was there 3 hours ago is now gone, lol.

I would expect a TD at 11am tomorrow, but once again, just an amateur

You're dreaming

[HurricaneDREW92]

You're dreaming

Probably

[ROCK]

Hey Rock; if this redevelops and moves into the GOM do I have to go into hiding?

nah, I have known you long enough to let you slide.... but next time leave a way out!!

[artist]

Whoa!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... W.62pc.jpg

what does that image show this dummy?

[GCANE]

I would expect a TD at 11am tomorrow, but once again, just an amateur

DMAX is going to be very interesting IMHO.

[GCANE]

Whoa!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... W.62pc.jpg

what does that image show this dummy?

Very intense cell, usually I do see it this dark pink on 37GHz.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I would expect a TD at 11am tomorrow, but once again, just an amateur

DMAX is going to be very interesting IMHO.

Definitely. (Everyone was saying Monday night )

[Hurricane Alexis]

From the Miami AFD.

MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL
WHICH BRINGS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (850 MB) ONSHORE THE EAST
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
KEEPING IT OFFSHORE OVER THE STRAITS.

offshore over the straits - isn't that the term between FL and Cuba?

I think it's between the coast and the Bahamas.

[artist]

I would expect a TD at 11am tomorrow, but once again, just an amateur

DMAX is going to be very interesting IMHO.

when is DMAX and thanks for your previous answer.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I would expect a TD at 11am tomorrow, but once again, just an amateur

DMAX is going to be very interesting IMHO.

when is DMAX and thanks for your previous answer.

DMAX takes place (diurnal maximum) at about 4-5am if I'm not mistaken.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks like Miami NWS is buying the stays offshore of the east coast solution.

The GFS has performed better then the Euro this year and it has it going inland in 18 hours. I don't know what's their reasoning for that, even the CMC has it just offshore in 18 hours.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Looks like Miami NWS is buying the stays offshore of the east coast solution.

The GFS has performed better then the Euro this year and it has it going inland in 18 hours. I don't know what's their reasoning for that, even the CMC has it just offshore in 18 hours.

My idea, too. The next 24hrs should be VERY interesting.

[GCANE]

DMAX takes place (diurnal maximum) at about 4-5am if I'm not mistaken.

Yup, pretty close to sunrise when the upper troposphere is at its coolest causing the greatest buoyancy of air parcels, aka lapse rate.

[artist]

Looks like Miami NWS is buying the stays offshore of the east coast solution.

The GFS has performed better then the Euro this year and it has it going inland in 18 hours. I don't know what's their reasoning for that, even the CMC has it just offshore in 18 hours.

here is the rest of that discussion -

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND HOW CLOSE IT MAY
COME TO THE EAST COAST, WILL INDICATE SCT TSTMS (30%) FOR EAST
COAST LATE TONIGHT DESPITE MODELS NOT BEING ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/TSTMS/GUSTY WINDS OFFSHORE, BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON TSTMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW
STORM MOTION.

[artist]

thanks guys!

[Alyono]

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center The NWS Directive states that "Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name." This language is a little ambiguous about what happens when there is more than one remnant (if, for example, a low-level remnant and a mid-level remnant separate). However, in such a case, we follow the primary remnant, which would almost always be considered the lower-level feature.

The reason that 2005's TD Twelve was not renamed TD Ten was because the primary remnant - the low-level circulation - of TD Ten had moved on and was not involved in the genesis of TD Twelve. In the case of Dorian, on the other hand, we're still dealing with the same low-level vorticity feature.

Just because they say something, does not make it scientifically correct all of the time. All scientists make errors. In my scientific opinion, this is an error

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Sea surface temperatures are warm, the environment is pretty moist, and wind shear is low (very well forecast by the GFS many, many days in advance). However, the disturbance has a glaring lack of low-level convergence. The thunderstorm activity we see is fueled primarily by upper-level divergence. We're in the exact same situation we were when Ex-Dorian was located northeast of the Leeward Islands. I don't expect any development given its proximity to land.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Sea surface temperatures are warm, the environment is pretty moist, and wind shear is low (very well forecast by the GFS many, many days in advance). However, the disturbance has a glaring lack of low-level convergence. The thunderstorm activity we see is fueled primarily by upper-level divergence. We're in the exact same situation we were when Ex-Dorian was located northeast of the Leeward Islands. I don't expect any development given its proximity to land.

Actually looking a lot better, not like 4hrs ago,but better.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

A potential LLC located near NW of Andros Islands.