ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

91L is convective limited on the north side of the gyre....that dry air is doing a number. Look at that NE shear just to the north of the invest. If it move in that direction it will get ripped apart. Things are not looking good for 91L this evening.....MGC

its been dead twice before. ....give it a chance...NHC gives it a 50% so odds are good....

[fci]

Like always, this thing LOOKS great in an ominous sort of way.
But the reality is that it is pretty feeble.
Dorian was always a good looker!

[MGC]

I would not be surprized if 91L stays stalled all night. Only avenue of excape is to go back south. If it move west it is inland, north shear gets it, east out to sea and adsorbed by the front....not many choises for 91L.....but, you never know.....MGC

[ozonepete]

91L is convective limited on the north side of the gyre....that dry air is doing a number. Look at that NE shear just to the north of the invest. If it move in that direction it will get ripped apart. Things are not looking good for 91L this evening.....MGC

its been dead twice before. ....give it a chance...NHC gives it a 50% so odds are good....

I'm a meteorologist so I'm not supposed to talk about something that keeps coming back from the dead and a real fighter, etc. but jeez this is the thing that wouldn't die. I just wouldn't count it out yet.

[Hammy]

Its been said so many times before over the past week or so, but it could take advantage of dmax to spin up given the convection exploding near the center. Lets just see if it isn't stripped of its convection by the shear to the north.

[ozonepete]

It seems to be sitting in a very small favorable area where shear is low and the dry air to the north is not being ingested. It also appears to be just out of reach of the steering winds that would take it north. If it stays there for another 12 hours or more and then drifts eastward or east-northeastward it still has a fairly good chance of developing. Even if it did, the only place that needs to watch it for bad impacts now is Bermuda.

[AdamFirst]

60%

RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
AND IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FURTHER
INDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF
THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LOW...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED FOR THE BAHAMAS OR ANY PART THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

[galaxy401]

Very interesting. I'll see if this storm gets upgraded when I wake up.

[CrazyC83]

It will be a close call to say the least...

[Hurricane Alexis]

Latest ASCAT. You can see the stronger winds where the convection is currently at.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[HURAKAN]

looks like the center or a vortex is moving north away from the convection, a sign of strong shear

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[lester]

It was a TD at 0z, not sure why they downgraded it

AL, 91, 2013080300, , BEST, 0, 279N, 796W, 30, 1013, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, M,
AL, 91, 2013080306, , BEST, 0, 283N, 795W, 30, 1013, DB

[bahamaswx]

As HURAKAN pointed out, you can see the LLC getting spit out to the north to its demise. Gonna have to keep watching the convection (which is still expanding and deepening) for development.

[Hammy]

there's a bit of a hook on Melbourne radar at the north end of the convection, so I'm wondering if the center is either reforming or that vortex that went flying out may have been rotating around the center.

[Hurricane Alexis]

If the center is detaching from the convection does that mean a new one will form further south?

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[Hammy]

If the center is detaching from the convection does that mean a new one will form further south?

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It's possible that it could reform under the MLC but would probably take a half a day at least in order to do this, especially if the convection manages to maintain itself, that is if it doesn't completely shear apart by then.

[bahamaswx]

Shear is really taking a toll now.

[lester]

renumber!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al042013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308030807
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[ozonepete]

Shear is really taking a toll now.

Not at all. It is strengthening.

[Hammy]

The zombie storm has fully resurrected.