ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

From NHC Discussion - keep in mind, we are talking a td, not hurricane andrew


RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS
OF DORIAN...LOCATED EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT-B
AND ASCAT-A OVERPASSES AT 0200 UTC AND 0244 UTC...RESPECTIVELY...
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 30-KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 35- TO 36-KT VECTORS. IN
ADDITION...DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D
RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN INDICATING PATCHES OF 35- TO 40-KT
WINDS WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 45 KT AT 5000-5500 FT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN.

Why would they upgrade a decapitated swirl of low clouds? The LLC Is all the way close to the 30th latitude while the MLC is where the convection is, and dying. Very weird.

Yeah I don't get it either. I guess they have evidence of something else at the surface in the convection.

Like I said, it should had been upgraded last night if they are basing it out of the ASCAT pass which one was 10 PM and the other one at 10:44 PM.

You can clearly see the LLC shooting out of the convection (now approaching 30.2N & 79W) before they upgraded it this morning at 5 AM.

[NDG]

Another proof that there is no LLC underneath all that deep convection, the LLC is well north of the convection, east of Jacksonville.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/MLB.N0Z ... .35_an.gif

[jinftl]

NHC has center ene of the Cape - also north of the blow up we are seeing

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 79.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA

Another proof that there is no LLC underneath all that deep convection, the LLC is well north of the convection, east of Jacksonville.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/MLB.N0Z ... .35_an.gif

[weatherwindow]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Just a little credit, where credit is due...CMC/GEM..as far as I am aware is the only global to close off TD Dorian..on the 00Z 8/3 model run...Yes, I know its the Canadian and develops every MCS but hey it needs love too ...Grtz from KW, Rich

[jinftl]

[NDG]

NHC has center ene of the Cape - also north of the blow up we are seeing

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 79.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA

Another proof that there is no LLC underneath all that deep convection, the LLC is well north of the convection, east of Jacksonville.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/MLB.N0Z ... .35_an.gif

IMO, visible satellite is going show that the LLC is no where near those coordinates.

[jinftl]

Head popping out ene of Cape C! If he sprouts feet we may be dealing with something just a bit different

[Hurricane Alexis]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013080300/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics.html

Just a little credit, where credit is due...CMC/GEM..as far as I am aware is the only global to close off TD Dorian..on the 00Z 8/3 model run...Yes, I know its the Canadian and develops every MCS but hey it needs love too ...Grtz from KW, Rich

The CMC was the first model to see Dorian redeveloping and also was the model that performed the best with Andrea. IMO the upgrade worked.

[TheStormExpert]

Scary that the Bermuda-Azores high drove him this far west....i hope that doesn't continue to be the pattern as we head into the peak of the season....


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/05 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH...AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY 72
HOURS...DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WHEN IT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCA.

Even if the Bermuda/Azores high is strong like this the next couple of months you still might not have to worry about the storms that do develop off Africa too badly since currently the instability is below average, of course that can change. I just have a gut feeling this season is not going to be as bad for the U.S. as some are saying. Still wouldn't discount a Cat. 1-2 hurricane making landfall in the U.S. though.

[N2FSU]

Wonderful. Headed out on a cruise from Port Canaveral at 4:00 to the Bahamas.
My wife doesn't do well with the least bit of rough seas.

[jlauderdal]

Wonderful. Headed out on a cruise from Port Canaveral at 4:00 to the Bahamas.
My wife doesn't do well with the least bit of rough seas.

well that was risky as seas can be rough when its sunny and clear but it will definitely be extra rough this cruise and probably wet, she better medicate in the best way possible before the voyage

[NDG]

NHC has center ene of the Cape - also north of the blow up we are seeing

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 79.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA

Another proof that there is no LLC underneath all that deep convection, the LLC is well north of the convection, east of Jacksonville.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/MLB.N0Z ... .35_an.gif

IMO, visible satellite is going show that the LLC is no where near those coordinates.

And here is the naked LLC well north of the convection, east of Jacksonville as I stated earlier.

[wxman57]

It's already being torn apart by shear. Doesn't really qualify for a TD. No organized convection around center. The south winds all along the SE Florida peninsula last night were a sign that the weak LLC was already shooting off to the north away from the convection.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Maybe another LLC closer to the convection?? This looks in bad shape. Zombie falling apart.

[RL3AO]

Me thinks if they had visible satellite four hours ago maybe its still an invest.

[wxman57]

Me thinks if they had visible satellite four hours ago maybe its still an invest.

I agree. It's a remnant low.

[RL3AO]

At least it won't get any undeserved ACE or NSD.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track confirms the naked swirl.

AL, 04, 2013080312, , BEST, 0, 301N, 788W, 30, 1013, TD

[vbhoutex]

It's already being torn apart by shear. Doesn't really qualify for a TD. No organized convection around center. The south winds all along the SE Florida peninsula last night were a sign that the weak LLC was already shooting off to the north away from the convection.

You said much more than I was going to, but having just looked at the visible, it is SO OBVIOUS that the shear is eating this alive and that even IF it is a TD that it won't last more than a few hours as that. I don't argue with the NHC and their designations since I have much less info available than they or you do Wxman, but this one is so obvious on the visible it isn't even arguable that it is done and done soon.

[northjaxpro]

well east of my area by about 125-150 miles offshore. I think the whammy is being inflicted on Dorian big time now with that strong shear. It will be time to get Bones back on here shortly on this system.