ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

[weatherwindow]

12z Best Track confirms the naked swirl.

AL, 04, 2013080312, , BEST, 0, 301N, 788W, 30, 1013, TD

Hi again Luis.....Just guessing here. IMO, they may for the sake of continuity hang onto it for another advisory as long as the convection persists(even though it is obviously removed from the naked LLC). I am having IT issues this am and havent been able to access some of my regular sources, can someone comment on the vitality of the MLC? Thanks in advance...Grtz from KW, Rich

[wxman57]

Plenty of surface obs around "TD Dorian". No significant wind, no squalls within 100 miles of the weak swirl. And the swirl appears to be slowly dissipating. It does not meet the qualifications for calling it a TD. It was initialized in the wrong location on the morning advisory.

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

Latest, and hopefully the last.

[Terry]

At least Dorian gave us something to watch and discuss and speculate about for a good long while.

[gatorcane]

I agree this is not a tropical depression given the low-level swirl removed far north from the convection. Not sure why it was upgraded especially being so weak and no threat to any land areas.

[Sanibel]

Probably meets all the criteria for TD even though badly displaced.


Maybe it will burst on the way out along the trough edge.

[wxman57]

Probably meets all the criteria for TD even though badly displaced.


Maybe it will burst on the way out along the trough edge.

I believe that organized convection around a center is a requirement. It certainly doesn't meet that requirement.

[tailgater]

Probably meets all the criteria for TD even though badly displaced.


Maybe it will burst on the way out along the trough edge.

Also, it was a lot closer to the convection when they renumbered him @ 3:15 this morning.

[artist]

Probably meets all the criteria for TD even though badly displaced.


Maybe it will burst on the way out along the trough edge.

Also, it was a lot closer to the convection when they renumbered him @ 3:15 this morning.

yep, they used ascat passes from around 0200 UTC if I am not mistaken -

ASCAT-A OVERPASSES AT 0200 UTC AND 0244 UTC...RESPECTIVELY...
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 30-KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 35- TO 36-KT VECTORS. IN
ADDITION...DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D
RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN INDICATING PATCHES OF 35- TO 40-KT
WINDS WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 45 KT AT 5000-5500 FT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN.

and it is now 1403 UTC, the above pass was from 1312 utc

[Airboy]

Don't that not indicate some kind circulation more south of the position of the "naked circulation" seen on visible? (comparing the time stamps)

[SFLcane]

Ah pesky little thing shouldn't bother anyone on its trip out to sea. Hopefully this is the last of these kinda storms.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=SE_Atlantic-vis-12

[cycloneye]

http://i44.tinypic.com/2eupfl5.png

Hi artist. That pass was made yesterday at 11:30 AM EDT.

[artist]

http://i44.tinypic.com/2eupfl5.png

Hi artist. That pass was made yesterday at 11:30 AM EDT.

got it, thank you. How can I tell? It said 1312 utc 8/3 and when I look at radar it stated it is 8/3 1324 utc (approx) without looking it back up. How can I tell?

[cycloneye]

http://i44.tinypic.com/2eupfl5.png

Hi artist. That pass was made yesterday at 11:30 AM EDT.

got it, thank you. How can I tell? It said 1312 utc 8/3 and when I look at radar it stated it is 8/3 1324 utc (approx) without looking it back up. How can I tell?

The pink numbers at the bottom are the catch 15:30 UTC to 15:31 is 11:30 AM EDT to 11:31 AM EDT.

[CrazyC83]

That ASCAT pass suggests a second circulation in the convection...

[artist]

quote="cycloneye"Hi artist. That pass was made yesterday at 11:30 AM EDT.quote

http://i44.tinypic.com/2eupfl5.png

got it, thank you. How can I tell? It said 1312 utc 8/3 and when I look at radar it stated it is 8/3 1324 utc (approx) without looking it back up. How can I tell?

The pink numbers at the bottom are the catch 15:30 UTC to 15:31 is 11:30 AM EDT to 11:31 AM EDT.

artist - Now I see it, so you can't go by the time listed but by the time listed for the sectors along the bottom of the pass (which I never noticed before) Thank you. Hopefully others will profit from this bit of wisdom from you as well!

[artist]

so this is the pass the NHC was referring to ( which was somewhat later than the above one I posted, but still hours ago -

[galaxy401]

Well Dorian got his thirty seconds of fame. Circulation is far from the convection now.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL
SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW
CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS
ARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN
THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER
TODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 30.6N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA