Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

nothing will develop if it moves off of Africa at 18N

you're right, it weakens it until it gets to the warmer water and thats when it starts to intensify a little just before it gets picked up by the modeled weakness

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z CMC has something in the SW Caribbean in about a week.



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[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles show lower pressures after the 10th meaning that things will be more favorable for the second half of the month.

[RL3AO]

Models aren't jumping on anything in particular yet, but there are signs of more favorable conditions. Which is to be expected as we approach the middle of August.

[blp]

Models are defintely hinting at something in the 240hr. Both the GFS and Euro are showing a common area of interest.
00z Euro has an area of interest a little further south than the 12z run.
00z Euro


12z Euro


GFS has a similar system but much weaker on 06z run and much further north than the Euro.
00z GFS


06z GFS

[gatorcane]

The 00Z GEM at 240 hours shows the broad low near the Cape Verde islands (image below). The 06Z GFS develops the low a little after that and the ECMWF has shown the low for two runs now.

Looks like we are gradually getting some model consensus that a Cape Verde system may try to get going around 10 days from now:

[ninel conde]

maybe, but it sure looks weak. at least pressures appear to be lowering.

[Hurricaneman]

It seems we are getting a consensus on development near the Cape Verde's and the GFS and Canadian are faster with getting this off the coast of Africa while the Euro is a day slower also the Euro and Canadian have this emerging at 14N while the GFS shows this coming off at 18N so basically the feeling I have is this will emerge at 15N head west and not develop much for a few days due to cooler water but develop into a tropical cyclone as it heads into the warmer water so it truly is something that needs to be monitored especially if the ridge doesnt break down as much as modeled. A good analog that came to mind is Fran in 1996 but that doesn't mean that I'm expecting a system of that strength

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

I think most of you guys are looking too far east for now. Off and on both the GFS and CMC have been hinting at TC development anywhere from the Western Carib. to the BOC. I think our next system forms in one of those areas or the Gulf of Mexico maybe next week. Pressures there are forecast to be lower and there is a good deal of energy/disturbances diving down into the Gulf due to this persistent eastern CONUS trough piling up the chances.

Just my opinion, but we'll see!

[supercane4867]

I see a lot of activity on 06Z GFS, but none of them are intense

[meriland23]

Any cape ver storms will heavily depend on the SAL.. atm, it is very strong and is inhibiting any formation really. But who knows what is forecasted in the coming weeks.. or if it weakens

[RL3AO]

12z CMC tries to do something in the Caribbean with the wave near 40W, but nothing else from the models.

[ninel conde]

12z CMC tries to do something in the Caribbean with the wave near 40W, but nothing else from the models.

yea, GFS shows nothing of importance thru 384 hours.

[HurricaneDREW92]

So potential CV system in 8-10 days, where is it currently?

[ROCK]

I am interested in the area at 40W.... tied to the ITCZ but it looks like a low is there. Not showing up on any maps I have seen. need to watch it as it moves across the pond....looks like its trying to seperate

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[rockyman]

Hey Rock. I'm watching this same area. I think the 12z CMC pulls this vorticity northward then westward into the Caribbean, with slight strengthening.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Hey Rock. I'm watching this same area. I think the 12z CMC pulls this vorticity northward then westward into the Caribbean, with slight strengthening.

CMC developed it into a TC in the gulf a couple of days ago.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Hey Rock. I'm watching this same area. I think the 12z CMC pulls this vorticity northward then westward into the Caribbean, with slight strengthening.

CMC developed it into a TC in the gulf a couple of days ago.

Theres a forum about this area if youre interested.

[ROCK]

18Z closes a vort in the GOM before going ashore around LA.....

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... .anim.html

[cycloneye]

The models were quiet at 00z with GFS going thru the 21rst. Apart from development,in the GFS I see the ridge way north in Azores.