2013 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

Mind boggling at the pace these EPAC storms are popping up. To be fair, as Yellow Evan said it's typical and the ACE is still well below average. But this basin still is providing the most excitement consistently of late!

Did the GFS prove everybody wrong in it's prediction of the MJO? Or is this completely un-MJO related?

Don't think it's MJO related, been very weak in the dead circle for weeks. It's been Kelvin waves, there's warm water push just below the surface in the PAC which is a sign of Kelvin wave activity. GFS did score a good coup showing activity uptick here first, though.

[Yellow Evan]

Mind boggling at the pace these EPAC storms are popping up. To be fair, as Yellow Evan said it's typical and the ACE is still well below average. But this basin still is providing the most excitement consistently of late!

Did the GFS prove everybody wrong in it's prediction of the MJO? Or is this completely un-MJO related?

Don't think it's MJO related, been very weak in the dead circle for weeks. It's been Kelvin waves, there's warm water push just below the surface in the PAC which is a sign of Kelvin wave activity. GFS did score a good coup showing activity uptick here first, though.

Credit goes to the GFS for showing this in advance. But let's not get too carried away, only 2 systems have formed, and it appears we will have a 60% bust if trends continue.

[Cyclenall]

I don't know why everyone is going gangbusters on this, after Flossie, only 1 lackluster hurricane formed with some invests thrown in closely to each other...happens in the Epac every season. Are we setting the bar this low now?

[Ntxw]

I don't know why everyone is going gangbusters on this, after Flossie, only 1 lackluster hurricane formed with some invests thrown in closely to each other...happens in the Epac every season. Are we setting the bar this low now?

It's all we got seeing Atlantic is pretty much silent. Actually globally it's been lackluster so bar is already low!

[Yellow Evan]

I don't know why everyone is going gangbusters on this, after Flossie, only 1 lackluster hurricane formed with some invests thrown in closely to each other...happens in the Epac every season. Are we setting the bar this low now?

Partially due to the fact Flossie brought some attention to the basin. Also, there has been nothing in the ATL and WPAC for like four days until today, which left there to only be one basin to track, the EPAC.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I have not been impressed with the East Pacific this season...not at all.

We've seen five hurricanes, all of which were Category 1s that struggled to attain an intensity that high.

The problem seems to be a more stable environment than usual so far this year. The East Pacific seems to have inherited the Atlantic's vertical instability problem.

Wind shear has also been quite high this season...especially as of late.

I know the chances are fairly low, but I'd be cool if we went without a major hurricane this year.

I'd rather track a Category 5 over the open Pacific though.

[Yellow Evan]

I have not been impressed with the East Pacific this season...not at all.

We've seen five hurricanes, all of which were Category 1s that struggled to attain an intensity that high.

The problem seems to be a more stable environment than usual so far this year. The East Pacific seems to have inherited the Atlantic's vertical instability problem.

Wind shear has also been quite high this season...especially as of late.

I know the chances are fairly low, but I'd be cool if we went without a major hurricane this year.

I'd rather track a Category 5 over the open Pacific though.

The ATL instability issue has spread throughout the NHEM. I think there is a real chance at going majorless actually.

[Cyclenall]

I have not been impressed with the East Pacific this season...not at all.

I know the chances are fairly low, but I'd be cool if we went without a major hurricane this year.

I'd rather track a Category 5 over the open Pacific though.

Agreed with first sentence, 2nd is a possibility and there have been years without 1 major in the Epac, and 3rd I rather a different basin but CAT5s are interesting anywhere.

[Yellow Evan]

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT HAS A LOW
CHANCE...0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[RL3AO]

Thats really our first look at how the five day TWO is supposed to work. Models have been developing a storm in the next four to five days from an area of energy that is near Panama right now. This is the first example of the NHC assigning a percentage to an area that really isn't even close to being invest worthy.

[Yellow Evan]

Thats really our first look at how the five day TWO is supposed to work. Models have been developing a storm in the next four to five days from an area of energy that is near Panama right now. This is the first example of the NHC assigning a percentage to an area that really isn't even close to being invest worthy.

'

Yea, I think it's really cool. I did not expect them to do this.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GIL AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE...BOTH LOCATED FAR TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Hurricane_Luis]

That 5 day forecast is a really good idea. They should make it permanent.

[Yellow Evan]

Major Hurricane Ivo?

[RL3AO]

The models have been fairly aggressive with the area the NHC has tagged in the five day outlook, but it looks like the GFS/ECMWF have backed off some.

[Yellow Evan]

Hawaii threat for Ivo? Super far out though.

[Kingarabian]

Hawaii appears to be dart practice for the EPAC this year.

[Cyclenall]

Major Hurricane Ivo?

Hope not, I don't want the no major streak for both the Atlantic and Epac to end unless the ATL delivers the "goods." Also, basing intensity off of a precipitable water product?

The models have been fairly aggressive with the area the NHC has tagged in the five day outlook, but it looks like the GFS/ECMWF have backed off some.

Thanks.

Hawaii threat for Ivo? Super far out though.

Maybe the threat of a weak TD 300 hours out. I'm so excited.

[Kingarabian]

[ninel conde]

i find it interesting how these systems look so good so far out in the pacific in a non el nino year. with this pattern where they make it to hawaii its good that there isnt an el nino with wamer sst's.