Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

[abajan]

I have been watching this area....looks like MLC is trying to get going and seperate from the ITCZ....current steering would pull this feature NW before it bumps up against the ridge and heads west into the Carib...before dark it had what looked like a weak rotation...

I also noticed the rotation but I thought I was imagining things

[RL3AO]

12z CMC tried to do something with it. Worth watching (there really isn't anything else to watch in the Atlantic).

[jonj2040]

I noticed this today to on my saunter through the inter webs. Maybe im straining my eyes at 4:30AM 'cause I can not sleep but here's what I noticed.
On the MIMIC TPW, there seemed to be some sort of affliction in the flow maybe some hits at a rotation trying to get there... ot maybe I'm seeing things...


then there's the vorticity at 850mb not that exciting but a slighly more concentrated area does line up with the area of convection.


the SAL in the area has greatly diminished:


the Shear does not seem to be a problem of course this isn't a shear forecast but the are seemed to stay roughly the same as i hit the -3hr button.


please correct me if I'm wrong I want to learn! the steering which from what I understand is the Easterlies here? are lighter than the self decapitating pace they gave Chantal... again this one I'm not sur if my limited understanding is even correct...


so I think it may become an invest not very hopeful of its ability to do so but something to watch for now I should probably relax and wait till the season real gets here later but this is fun Or maybe what I mean is that if we had the wave we had for Dorian or Chantal now they'd have actually amounted to something but here this doesn't seem to have the initial umph.

please anyone that's good at this help me correct my mistakes I'm starting for a dual in mech. engineering and meteorology at FIT this fall to later decide between the two or if I think I could handle the load and would like to know anything that'd help me out! I don't yet know enough to know what I don't know. haha

Thanks!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 05 2013


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N44W TO 15N41W MOVING W-NW
NEAR 5 KT. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW
DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING
CONVECTION.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Interesting...suprised they havent tagged this as an invest.

[wxman57]

I don't see anything of significance in the Atlantic Basin this morning.

[Gustywind]

8AM TWD


A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 27N45W TO 18N47W MOVING W-NW
NEAR 15 KT AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION.

[tolakram]

live visible of the area: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

live visible of the area: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

A dry wave.

[ROCK]

I don't see anything of significance in the Atlantic Basin this morning.

you never do!!

[ROCK]

Look behind the area you guys are watching at 50W....look more to 45W....there is a LLC / Eddie spinning around exposed in that mass of clouds...might be dry out there but I am looking at when this gets in a better environment down the road if ever....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[StormTracker]

It's interesting that from the 205AM TWD to the 8AM TWD it went from moving at 5 kts to 15 kts!

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tailgater]

I hear ya Rock. let's see how it looks in the morning(invest worthy).

[wxman57]

I don't see anything of significance in the Atlantic Basin this morning.

you never do!!

I do if something has a reasonable chance of developing into a TC. That's not the case with this wave. I assume you're talking about the weak wave centered around 30.5N/46.5W, a feature that split off the ITCZ a few days ago? Or are you talking about the southern part of the wave near 12N/53W? Neither one looks like it has much chance of development.

[ROCK]

I don't see anything of significance in the Atlantic Basin this morning.

you never do!!

I do if something has a reasonable chance of developing into a TC. That's not the case with this wave.

I know...just giving you the business! Besides someone has to offset your negative energy with some positive energy!!

[wxman57]

I edited my post above, Rock. Which disturbance are you talking about?

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

look at the low level convergence here along with 850MB vort map....If you zoom in with the 1KM Nasa Sat view you can see 2 areas with rotation. The one out in front has a broad area while the one close behind it has a better circulation. The one out in front is running fullback through the dry air while the one behind is running thru the hole.... best anology I could think of....


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[ROCK]

it is dealing with that strong anticyclone to the west which is delivering some nasty mid level shear.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

alas with no model support its pretty much toast but something to watch.

[Frank2]

What's that cloud swirl east of Barbados - on the IR it almost appears to be some sort of exposed LLC...