Global model runs discussion

[ninel conde]

surprising since the 21st is the heart of the season. models should start showing something soon.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

nothing on euro through 240. it does show a neg NAO and east coast trough.

[tolakram]

surprising since the 21st is the heart of the season. models should start showing something soon.

In your experience, what is the typical lead time for the models to show an actual storm rather than a pattern?

[ninel conde]

surprising since the 21st is the heart of the season. models should start showing something soon.

In your experience, what is the typical lead time for the models to show an actual storm rather than a pattern?

thats a tough Q. i would think the models would already be showing at least phantom storms simply because of climatology. this may be a situation where the models are just seeing all the dry air dominating the tropics. also, the lack of any organized convection may be showing up in the models. finally, sometimes a weak storm that doesnt last long can pop up with almost no lead time, while the truly big ones can start to show up well in advance.

[DESTRUCTION5]

surprising since the 21st is the heart of the season. models should start showing something soon.

Since when is 8/21 the "heart" of the season? Think that's the real question.

[ninel conde]

surprising since the 21st is the heart of the season. models should start showing something soon.

Since when is 8/21 the "heart" of the season? Think that's the real question.

didnt say peak, said heart of season. i think anyone would agree aug15-oct15 is the heart of the season.

[tolakram]

surprising since the 21st is the heart of the season. models should start showing something soon.

Since when is 8/21 the "heart" of the season? Think that's the real question.

I agree with that, but I'm also looking at slower seasons, like 2009, and usually the models light up around now. In 2009 all the models showed something by August 6th. Every season is different, and when the peak rush begins is not indicative of seasonal activity, but it's a curiosity worth pondering at least.

I try not to form an opinion about the season and then look for data to back it up. That can get people in trouble. I still believe this will be a very active year.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

something interesting over cape verde.

[tolakram]

Model roundup with all models starting to show something near Cape Verde at 180+ hours or so. Canadian gets a little carried away, as usual.

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF continues to show a rather large and vigorous wave coming off Africa. Here we are at 192 hours so the timeframe is coming in as it was 240 hours. Looks like this could be our next area of interest. The wave is a bit north in latitude though.

[wxman57]

If it really does move off the west coast of Africa north of 20N then the chances of it impacting the Caribbean or the U.S. would be remote.

[Dynamic]

Model roundup with all models starting to show something near Cape Verde at 180+ hours or so. Canadian gets a little carried away, as usual.

Gatorcane, do you believe that this disturbance that the European Model showed up at 192Hrs could be the active area that is now near Nigeria (circled in red )?

[OuterBanker]

What is it wxman, the 20 60 rule.

Something like if a storm is north of 20 before 60 w it almost always "swims with the fishes".

[hurricanehunter69]

Yep, the models are "finally" starting to show several interesting features toward the end of their runs today. I especially took notice of the one at the end of the GFS 12z run. Could this one be our first Hurricane? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gf ... precip.gif

[ROCK]

What is it wxman, the 20 60 rule.

Something like if a storm is north of 20 before 60 w it almost always "swims with the fishes".

tell that to IKE!!!

[tolakram]

12Z runs of CMC and GFS, both showing something coming off Africa and weak development.

[StormTracker]

Yep, the models are "finally" starting to show several interesting features toward the end of their runs today. I especially took notice of the one at the end of the GFS 12z run. Could this one be our first Hurricane? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gf ... precip.gif

And how about the feature south of Cuba?

[ROCK]

the GFS wants to dump that large wave to far north IMO,.....more inclined to go with the CMC splash down...NAVGEM shows a broad area around this area also...

[cycloneye]

the GFS wants to dump that large wave to far north IMO,.....more inclined to go with the CMC splash down...NAVGEM shows a broad area around this area also...

00z Euro does the same as GFS emerging around 20N. Let's see what the 12z has.

[Rgv20]

0zHWRF Experimental Basin Scale 27KM Run shows a well defined disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic in about 4 days.



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