Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Interesting about HWRF showing it. That is area located in Central Africa now.

[cycloneye]

This was the 384 super long range timeframe of the 12z GFS of Africa and looks loaded with waves but after they emerge,what environmental conditions they will encounter?

[alienstorm]

Interesting all yet there is no mentioned by the NHC and their newly rolled out 5 day outlook.

[Macrocane]

The FIM develops a disturbance north of Panama on August 13.



Than it crosses the north of Yucatan peninsula on August 15 as a tropical storm.



Finally it makes landfall in Texas on August 19 as a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane



Of course it's La La Land but it may be an indicator of better conditions in the Caribbean.

[ROCK]

clear indication that things are about to get interesting. I am seeing stuff in the long range now in all the models. it was just a matter of time....

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM....interesting features near Panama at 180hr

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Hurricane Alexis]

What the FIM is developing is the tropical wave in the central atlantic right now.

[hurricanehunter69]

Yep, the models are "finally" starting to show several interesting features toward the end of their runs today. I especially took notice of the one at the end of the GFS 12z run. Could this one be our first Hurricane? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gf ... precip.gif

And how about the feature south of Cuba?

Yes, that feature looked interesting too StormTracker. The GFS 12Z didn't do much with it. The 6Z however, was the most aggresive with it. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gf ... precip.gif

[BigB0882]

Isn't a high sitting over TX? That high would need to move away, otherwise I can't see it plowing through that.

[LaBreeze]

Isn't a high sitting over TX? That high would need to move away, otherwise I can't see it plowing through that.

I totally agree and was about to post this scenario. What is the high currently in place over TX expected to do in a week or two?

[BigB0882]

Maybe it is going to retrograde West or something. Otherwise I would think any storm has to go south into Mexico or extreme southern Texas OR get picked up if something swings down and go to the Northern Gulf. This is all assuming there is even anything at all near the tip of the Yucatan.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: clear indication that things are about to get interesting. I am seeing stuff in the long range now in all the models. it was just a matter of time....

Tropics starting to heat up. I know this will be an active season. I can just sense it.

[Nederlander]

Local forecast in SE TX is increased rain chance by the weekend (40% Saturday). So the high will back off in a few days but not sure how long that will last.

[hurricanetrack]

No love for the surface trough on the 2am. Looks like we have to check back in 5 days

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060510
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z GFS still has our system in the eastern atlantic in 6 days.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS still has our system in the eastern atlantic in 6 days.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

theres also a wave that develops a low a couple of days later and if you look at the end of the run, the low is gone{probably due to truncation} but the steering pattern is not really a recurve if you look at the 500 geopotential heights so its an ominous pattern for the SE coast especially Florida if that day 8 wave does indeed develop but if it tells us one thing its that there may be a tropical storm again around or just after August 15th

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SFLcane]

If that wave does indeed indeed roll of africa around 19-20N as the european suggest its unlikely to bother anyone.

[ninel conde]

pretty depressing that no model can show a well developed hurricane in late aug. still some hints and signs.

[Alyono]

now why is it depressing, Ninel, that there are no canes? You own any property that can be destroyed?

[ninel conde]

now why is it depressing, Ninel, that there are no canes? You own any property that can be destroyed?

i think its safe to say most people are posting here because they want to track hurricanes.