Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

[ROCK]

What's that cloud swirl east of Barbados - on the IR it almost appears to be some sort of exposed LLC...

there are 2 areas...the one in front has some rotation but more broad.....the one right on its butt has a better exposed LLC/ Eddie...both are lifting up out of the ITCZ..mid level shear and dry air not helping things.....

the one in the rear has better low level convergence and 850MB vort....guess we can watch both. Nothing better to do...

[wxman57]

Made a screen shot of what I see in the Atlantic. Top feature north of 30N was the one I thought was being discussed. Just about zero chance of it developing. Can see a little rotation in the ITCZ east of the Caribbean in two locations. The area closest to the Caribbean appears stronger, though neither one appears likely to develop, but the chances of development aren't as low as for that one north of 30N.

[ROCK]

those two waves at the bottom are text book looking....they actually do look like waves...

yeah 30N is garbage....now the others look interesting but with no model support they will probably head in the carib and die a slow death....

[Sanibel]

Things can change quickly at this time of year. That east of Barbados swirl could convect and form or it could just be a "ghost" system that has all the features except convection and teases us. Or it could form further west.

[RL3AO]

The only model that I've seen try to develop it anytime soon was the 12z CMC from yesterday, but it seemed to lose it as it approached the W. Carrib.

[floridasun78]

post topic about this on sunday viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115360 i notice ITCZ was getting active

[alienstorm]

I would think NHC would mentioned given they have a new 5 day outlook even if it 0%

[floridasun78]

I would think NHC would mentioned given they have a new 5 day outlook even if it 0%

you saw same on models page are talking about afica wave or one by 50 w?

[cycloneye]

Nothing for the next five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[ROCK]

Nothing for the next five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

I dont like this new 5 days forecast....based obviously on the GFS and other long range models. the GFS and EURO have been not so good with picking up smaller systems this year for some reason.

good thing they put in a disclaimer that the 5 day outlook is experimental!

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N54W 14N56W 10N56W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
23N49W AND 27N48W. THIS TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND THE 25N56W 23N57W 21N58W SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND
58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN
40W AND 61W.

[StormTracker]

Nothing for the next five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

I dont like this new 5 days forecast....based obviously on the GFS and other long range models. the GFS and EURO have been not so good with picking up smaller systems this year for some reason.

good thing they put in a disclaimer that the 5 day outlook is experimental!

Yeah ROCK, I'm with you on that! I think it's going to take NOAA/NWS some time to adjust to this new 5-day forecast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't think its much befefit either. Conditions csn change substantially in one day much less five. Also just like a five day forecast more than likely its going to change numerous times over by days 4 and 5.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

How 'bout the wave near 45W?

[StormTracker]

I don't think its much befefit either. Conditions csn change substantially in one day much less five. Also just like a five day forecast more than likely its going to change numerous times over by days 4 and 5.

My point exactly CM! Let's remember though, this is a step towards trying to help the situation. Let's give it time, they'll figure it out(hopefully)...

[RL3AO]

Remember guys, its not like they started doing this last week. They've been doing it (5-day forecast) for a couple years now behind the scenes. I'm sure they're confident in a skill level to make it public.

[StormTracker]

How 'bout the wave near 45W?

I think this is the perfect time for the 5-dayer! I think mother nature just flipped the switch! IT'S GO TIME!!!

[ROCK]

yeah that one at 45W is the guy I have been watching....it has the more vigorious LLC than the one in front IMO....still though it is sheared.....can we get something to stack for more than a day or two??

[alienstorm]

It definitely deserves a mention.

[cycloneye]

It definitely deserves a mention.

With that ASCAT it can be invest anytime but there is any model support yet.