Global model runs discussion

[RL3AO]

Feel free to go discuss Hurricane Henriette or even jump into the discussion about the potential typhoon affecting Asia next week if you want to track tropical cyclones.

Or is it just hurricanes affecting the United States you want to track?

[stauglocal]

I want to track hurricanes that will provide surf for the United States, namely Florida.

[Ptarmigan]

pretty depressing that no model can show a well developed hurricane in late aug. still some hints and signs.

I do not put stock in long term forecasts. It can change quickly.

[blp]

Looking at the model projections and comparing this year to 2004, if the models are right we will be behind in terms of the Cape Verde season. Charley formed close to the islands so it does not count as Cape Verde storm. We should start seeing Cape Verde development very soon. The first true cape verde development in 2004 started on Aug 13th with Danielle and Francis after that on Aug 25.

Danielle


Francis


Although Francis made it across pond for a US landfall, I am thinking we might see more Charley and Earl type areas of orgin (West of 45) for development this year which would be much more dangerous for landfall. I just don't see a major break in the hostile conditions further east for at least the next month and if you think about the cape verde season it is not very long and usually runs from Aug 15 to late September.

Charley


Earl

[ROCK]

I dont put much stock in any of these long range models this year. The GFS and EURO both are having a hard time with cyclongenisis. The EURO has been on drugs and the GFS with its wonderful upgrade has fallen on its face...We saw this with Dorian. If they cant pick up systems that are so obviously formed in the short range how can they predict TC formation in the med or long range?

removed Erin... I am at work and my admin is named Erin....ha...

[Hurricaneman]

I dont put much stock in any of these long range models this year. The GFS and EURO both are having a hard time with cyclongenisis. The EURO has been on drugs and the GFS with its wonderful upgrade has fallen on its face...We saw this with Erin and Dorian. If they cant pick up systems that are so obviously formed in the short range how can they predict TC formation in the med or long range?

Erin hasn't happened yet, but I do get what you're saying

On topic: The 6zGFS showed a wave coming off of africa at 171 hrs and developing a low around 180hrs developing it into a tropical cyclone around the Cape verdes around day 9 and at the end of the run has it ENE of the northern lesser antilles and the 500mb steering pattern is pretty much the same as the 0zGFS except a little more robust with the surface low but as has been said anything that is in the truncation period needs to be taken with a salt shaker of salt

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

12Z GFS doesn't develop anything

The reason is that the waves move off at 20N.

If the waves do get this far north, then my thoughts on hyperactivity simply will not come true. There simply will not be a CV season if the waves move off so far north

[Hurricaneman]

12Z GFS doesn't develop anything

The reason is that the waves move off at 20N.

If the waves do get this far north, then my thoughts on hyperactivity simply will not come true. There simply will not be a CV season if the waves move off so far north

yep and the wave behind it at 168 that the 0z and 6zGFS developed has basically been dropped but if that one comes off at 12 to 13N it needs to be watched in case the 500mb steering is as shown the last few model runs but we'll see

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12Z CMC has a developing disturbance coming off Africa at 96 hrs more to the south than the GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

06Z NAVGEM showing some carib activity...the 12Z run is not done yet...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

12Z CMC has a developing disturbance coming off Africa at 96 hrs more to the south than the GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

yep...moves it south of west for a time....

[Hurricaneman]

12Z CMC has a developing disturbance coming off Africa at 96 hrs more to the south than the GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

yep...moves it south of west for a time....

out of these model runs would you go with the 12zGFS coming off at 20N or the 12zCanadian coming off at 13N

[blp]

12Z GFS doesn't develop anything

The reason is that the waves move off at 20N.

If the waves do get this far north, then my thoughts on hyperactivity simply will not come true. There simply will not be a CV season if the waves move off so far north

I noticied the same thing, but in addition if you look at the southern waves and ITCZ moisture it seems to hit a roadblock at 35W and then drops well below 10N and almost does not make it across the basin. It looks like the High pressure ridging is displaced further south than normal and really strong west of 35W and pushes it south. I see good waves rolling off of Africa but once they get to 35W they either weaken or meander around and stall out.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013080612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl.html

[ninel conde]

12Z GFS doesn't develop anything

The reason is that the waves move off at 20N.

If the waves do get this far north, then my thoughts on hyperactivity simply will not come true. There simply will not be a CV season if the waves move off so far north

I noticied the same thing, but in addition if you look at the southern waves and ITCZ moisture it seems to hit a roadblock at 35W and then drops well below 10N and almost does not make it across the basin. It looks like the High pressure ridging is displaced further south than normal and really strong west of 35W and pushes it south. I see good waves rolling off of Africa but once they get to 35W they either weaken or meander around and stall out.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013080612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl.html

thats pretty much what the euro seasonal forecast was predicting. well above normal pressures in the deep tropics. however. several people are saying activity will pick up so the models should start showing something before too long. the GFS model loop you provided was informative. this seems a bit like 1993 where the rain never ended for the western midwest. this year the rain is almost non stop for the mid atlantic and that loop shows continued rain in the same areas. i think philadelphia has set or will certainly set a record for the rainiest june-aug ever and that was done without any rain from tropical systems, except some from andrea. anyway, here is the 93 season.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php. it will be interesting to see what the euro has at 240 hours this afternoon as the waves appear more robust over africa.

[sponger]

I want to track hurricanes that will provide surf for the United States, namely Florida.

Amen surf brother!

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM finished....got the Panama feature lifting up....also the wave coming off Africa comes off about 15N then drop below that....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[alienstorm]

If you live with the GFS - there will be no storms in August.

[Stormlover2012]

Lol models don't pick up storms to that we'll after 8-10 days.

[Stormlover2012]

Lol models don't pick up storms to that we'll after 8-10 days.

[ninel conde]

If you live with the GFS - there will be no storms in August.

GFS out to 384 hours shows nothing but the pattern looks fairly favorable. lower pressures and the high is far to the north