Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ninel conde]

TWC said the stalled boundary east of Florida won't develop due to NE shear.

yea, the trof off the east coast is rather large. larry cosgrove giving it a 1 in 21 chance seems about right. i imagine if it can move west it might get a little more favorable.

[Ptarmigan]

While my thoughts may change if something doesn't start showing up in the models soon, I will say that 1996, 1998, 1999, 2002, and 2010 all went through most if not all of the first two thirds of August with nothing and were still fairly busy.

Seasons that start later are the worst. 1961 had Carla, 1998 had Mitch, while 2004 had Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. The first recorded hurricane in 1900 was the Galveston Hurricane, which was a Cape Verde Storm. I do wonder if 1900 had any storms recorded prior to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane.

[Ntxw]

Still a lot of subsidence (sinking air) out in the Atlantic and west Africa, which isn't good for development at this time. No help from the MJO (or lack there of) in the foreseeable future.

[MGC]

Nearly a week into August and conditions across almost the entire Atlantic basin remain hostile to tropical cyclone formation. The MDR is besieged by dry air, the GOM and NW Caribbean have shear issues. There is a pretty good looking looking wave over Africa which looks to be embedded in a moist environment which should emerge into the Atlantic in a couple of days. If this wave can hold together and in a moisture rich environment, then I think this wave will have potential to eventually develop.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Hammy]

I'm getting the feeling this will be like 2005 (though nowhere near as active or intense) where there is little to no activity east of 60W later in the season. Even as active as the season was only three storms formed in the MDR after July.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm getting the feeling this will be like 2005 (though nowhere near as active or intense) where there is little to no activity east of 60W later in the season. Even as active as the season was only three storms formed in the MDR after July.

Agreed, this is what I've been predicting for a month now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ninel conde]

BIG NEWS!! the guy on TWC just said we may finally have a pattern change mid to late next week to more favorable conditions.

[CrazyC83]

Look at the SAL maps...there is pretty much no dry air once beyond 50W. It seems to all be stuck in the eastern Atlantic. If some waves sneak down and through, they will have a wide-open alleyway...also the troughs and fronts that make it down could be important sources as well.

What infamous storms, though, had non-tropical origins? They don't seem too common.

[Hammy]

Bob in 1991 and Diana in 1984 are literally the only two I could find.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Ginny in 1963, I'm certain there are others though -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginny_(1963)

[ninel conde]

ginger 1971. 2nd longest hurricane in atlantic basin and it also made the greatest comeback. went from the bahamas to the far eastern atlantic then turned back west and hit north carolina. another oddity about ginger is it absorbed the remains of janice on its journey.

[ronjon]

The MDR and Africa equatorial region is starting to look monsoonal. Things should start popping within a week or so now.

MDR SAT

[Steve]

Hey world. I'm interested to see what happens between now and November. We're ahead of schedule on number of named storms (I don't dispute any of the 4). And we are in a neutral year, if slightly cold-neutral. Here are some of the things I'm looking at going into the heart of the season.

Absent other strong signals, favorable MJO pulses this season are telegraphing upticks. That's not really a surprise but some years that signal can be so weak as to be ambivalent. So even though it won't tip us off on all basin activity, that is something I’m following. Then you get to SSTA's. Almost the entire Atlantic is where it's supposed to be. There are a couple of exceptions including off of Eastern Canada. Look for at least something to try to head up that way. Bermuda sort of in the way?

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_d ... nv=0&t=cur

Otherwise, the strongest SSTA signal near to us seems to be the warmer water off of Southern Mexico which is somewhat responsible for additional lift in the EPAC.

Going into the season, I was most worried about the Eastern Gulf. I don't think a second hit (probably something stronger) is out of the question. Based on the way the SW Atlantic High has been pulsing leads me to believe that the SE Coast (talking Mississippi to North Carolina) takes a few/multiple spray hits from the SSW/S/SSE/SE this year (possibly as many as 3 total hits in that target area). Certainly the entire Gulf and East Coast area at risk, but I have things centered there for now. That’s also partly based on the way and angle continental troughs have been coming in (despite us not yet having hit summer high tide relative to continental trough/ridge positions). I also wouldn’t rule out a couple of shots at the West Gulf (Northern Mexico/Texas) if anything can get in underneath during periods of strong oceanic ridging..

In my opinion, it looks like a rocky season for the US. I don’t see another 2005 as the Atlantic Oceanic heat content that year was like jet fuel for storms. But I think we see multiple hits on America. One similarity with 2005 is the way high pressure is following East Coast troughing off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. In 2005, large highs were coming down from the NW (Canada and Great Lakes) and then moving almost due East off the coast to enhance Atlantic ridging. This year, it’s more of a bleed in, but there are similarities. I’m looking for more than average but maybe not quite 19 systems total (15-17?). One small caveat is there has been some recent volcanic activity in South America. If we see any large eruptions in the SE or SW Pacific, the cap on the season could almost immediately follow.

Since I’m completely off the web except for the occasional S2K danger post, I’ll see you guys if we face any threats or see any action. Word.

[Cyclenall]

The MDR and Africa equatorial region is starting to look monsoonal. Things should start popping within a week or so now.

MDR SAT

The NRL (and its backup), hasn't been working for me in days...does it for you?

One small caveat is there has been some recent volcanic activity in South America. If we see any large eruptions in the SE or SW Pacific, the cap on the season could almost immediately follow.

That recent volcanic activity in South America will absolutely have no effect on the season, that stuff happens every year. Even big ones probably won't do too much. The one in Iceland in May 2010 that made International headlines didn't seem to do much to the basin.

Since I’m completely off the web except for the occasional S2K danger post, I’ll see you guys if we face any threats or see any action. Word.

I still don't believe this. I've never heard of someone going online for just 1 website.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Steve, glad to see you're still around and stopping by even if its a lot more seldom than previous years. Maybe we can get things cranked up in a couple if weeks and bring some interest back around here and get some more of your insight. Or if it continues quiet like it has we can go to the sports board and can talk some saints football. Hope this year is much better than last.

[ninel conde]

instability dropping further below normal as peak approaches.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

atlantic much drier than normal thru 4th week of august. gets back closer to normal as sept arrives. in the 4th week you can where the model has it bone dry is also where the euro was forecasting much higher than normal pressures.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... 130806.gif

[SFLcane]

instability dropping further below normal as peak approaches.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

atlantic much drier than normal thru 4th week of august. gets back closer to normal as sept arrives. in the 4th week you can where the model has it bone dry is also where the euro was forecasting much higher than normal pressures.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... 130806.gif

You have been harping on the atl being dry everthing recurving give it a few weeks its only early august. Fully expect things to ramp in 2-3 weeks as overall conditions improve across the basin.

[ninel conde]

instability dropping further below normal as peak approaches.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

atlantic much drier than normal thru 4th week of august. gets back closer to normal as sept arrives. in the 4th week you can where the model has it bone dry is also where the euro was forecasting much higher than normal pressures.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... 130806.gif

You have been harping on the atl being dry everthing recurving give it a few weeks its only early august. Fully expect things to ramp in 2-3 weeks as overall conditions improve across the basin.

well, that is climo, but right now through week 4 of august moisture is expected to be below climo and also instability is well below climo now and has been for 3 years.

[Alyono]

does not matter how favorable conditions are. You need disturbances to get development. The issue next week appears to be a lack of disturbances, not unfavorable conditions

[Steve]

That recent volcanic activity in South America will absolutely have no effect on the season, that stuff happens every year. Even big ones probably won't do too much. The one in Iceland in May 2010 that made International headlines didn't seem to do much to the basin.

I wasn't saying that itself would have an effect. It's just a wildcard for me. I've been suspicious of a potential relationship since Montserrat in 1997 and the 1997 El Nino. Not saying that it would matter (or Pinatubo in 1991), but there might be a link. I'm sure someone is researching or has researched somewhere and I've missed it. But I wanted to throw that caveat in there just in case.

Mike,

For sure. Looking for things to crank. Breck was saying last night he thinks it might be an early fall (1st/2nd week of September). I don't necessarily agree. There have been fronts and troughs all summer. They'll get stronger, but that doesn't necessarily stop or inhibit hits as pattern reversals often lead to riper conditions. We'll see. Best to you.

Steve