West PAC - disturbance near 140E (Is Invest 96W)

[Alyono]

6Z GFS looks bizarre. It is showing a rapidly weakening TS affecting Taiwan and eastern China.

It IS a typhoon by the Philippines in the GFS. Seems like it gets tangled with a front (and maybe the mountains of Taiwan) before it reaches China

[xtyphooncyclonex]

FORECAST TRACK BY GFS: Becomes an invest tomorrow or on Thursday. Becomes a tropical storm 78 hours from now. A severe tropical storm at 15N, 131.9E on August 10 (exactly 4 days from now. Becomes a typhoon on Aug 11, 5:00 PM PHT, 6:00 PM JST. A strong typhoon north of Luzon on the next day. Reaches peak intensity on August 13 and having annular characteristics. Makes landfall in Taiwan early morning of the next day then rapidly weakens. After hitting Taiwan, Utor hits China then dissipates.


DISCLAIMER:
--The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.--

[Alyono]

This may be more convective feedback from the GFS. It has been HORRIBLE this year in developing monsoon trough systems. Far too intense.

The Canadian has very very little. IMO, this is a more realistic solution instead of the GFS on again / off again nonsense

[Typhoon Hunter]

This may be more convective feedback from the GFS. It has been HORRIBLE this year in developing monsoon trough systems. Far too intense.

The Canadian has very very little. IMO, this is a more realistic solution instead of the GFS on again / off again nonsense

Interesting thoughts, the models have been all over the place with no consistency between any of them for days. However if GFS continues to show this storm forming over the next 2 or 3 runs then I'd put money on it forming. Getting pretty close now in 60-72hr time frame for a TD to form and their does appear to be a disturbance SW of Guam.

[Alyono]

This may be more convective feedback from the GFS. It has been HORRIBLE this year in developing monsoon trough systems. Far too intense.

The Canadian has very very little. IMO, this is a more realistic solution instead of the GFS on again / off again nonsense

Interesting thoughts, the models have been all over the place with no consistency between any of them for days. However if GFS continues to show this storm forming over the next 2 or 3 runs then I'd put money on it forming. Getting pretty close now in 60-72hr time frame for a TD to form and their does appear to be a disturbance SW of Guam.

The GFS has been consistently doing this for monsoon trough systems in all basins this year. I suspect there is something wrong with its latent heat release. I hope that when the upgrades were made recently, this issue was corrected, though I do not believe it was

[RobWESTPACWX]

I put a video update on this... well the second half the video. The other half is the other area in the westpac (mangkhut) Just some thoughts on it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7wzpSByiIc[/youtube]

[dexterlabio]

^Good point. I've seen the GFS model "over-cranking" some systems from the previous years, and there was one time last year in July when it predicted a strong TS impacting Manila but we got a tropical wave instead. BUT when it shows no formation of tropical cyclones in short-medium range, there's really none of them forming. I don't know, but there are also many instances when GFS gets it right too. The best thing to do is to wait for the actual system to form.


Are the conditions favorable for a strong typhoon forming this coming weekend?

[vrif]

Latest 12Z GFS run has this system moving west over the Philippines and into the SCS. Then recurving back north and making landfall east of HK. It seems that the GFS is not weakening the subtropical high as much as the previous runs.

[Alyono]

GFS is showing a TS now, with most development in the SCS. MUCH more realistic compared to those obvious bogus mega typhoon forecasts that it was showing

[Alyono]

Should we change the thread title since most models are NOT showing a strong typhoon? Only some of the GFS runs are showing this

[vrif]

Looking at the 12Z model runs. EC, along with JMA and BOM has still been consistently tracking this system towards Hainan Island. However, they keep it as a TD or TS. A quick glance at the KMA model, it has a similar track to Typhoon Vicente. Intensifying over the SCS, then making a turn to the north and landfall west of HK. The GFS has a similar setup, except making landfall east of HK.

[vrif]

The 18Z GFS has a more reasonable track now. It moves the storm towards the west, and then turning northwards towards the PRD.

[dexterlabio]

so I just looked at the model text track file for GFS 18z and shows the system peaking at 64kts near 15.8 N 125.8E, then reattaining that intensity near 21.2N 114.2E (near HK). This is from the NCEP models page by the way. Do I get these texts right?

[Typhoon Hunter]

GFS 00z similar to 18Z but with a weaker system this time hitting NE Luzon and going in to hit China just west of Macau.

Interestingly though NAVGEM on board with development of this system in 00z run, paints a similar picture to GFS:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[vrif]

Looking at the 0Z model outputs. GFS, and NAV has the system steering north towards the coast. EC and CMC has it going straight west. Comparing the locations of the subtropical ridge that is steering this storm on the 500 hPa charts. GFS and NAV has it centered over Kyushu. EC and CMC has it centered over the Korea Strait.

edit: Forgot to mention. I ment the forecast location at +144hr for the subtropical high

[RobWESTPACWX]

HMM Based on the 00Z Upper Level analysis from JMA it may be even farther than that.

http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/metcht/pdf/kosou/aupn30_00.pdf

[RobWESTPACWX]

06Z GFS run for Sunday.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Im actually a little curious at how NRL has not put a invest area on this yet. Its a big blog in a favorable area with numerical guidance. Seems like they have warned on less than that.

[vrif]

OSCAT 0807 1404Z
Is this the suspected disturbance?

[Typhoon Hunter]

I think the area is further to the west. NRL have tagged INvest 95W off coast of Mindanao but that's not our area either. GFS 12z and 18z both going for NE Luzon hit but then vary with 12z landing near PRD and 18Z recurving into Taiwan.