Global model runs discussion

[otowntiger]

If you live with the GFS - there will be no storms in August.

GFS out to 384 hours shows nothing but the pattern looks fairly favorable. lower pressures and the high is far to the north

The high being "far to the north" would indicate a re-curving pattern, would it not?

[otowntiger]

12Z CMC has a developing disturbance coming off Africa at 96 hrs more to the south than the GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

yep...moves it south of west for a time....

yeah, it also seems to show it dissipating.

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the European monthly TC forecast (paid site) and the forecast for August is 50-70% of normal activity.

[ninel conde]

If you live with the GFS - there will be no storms in August.

GFS out to 384 hours shows nothing but the pattern looks fairly favorable. lower pressures and the high is far to the north

The high being "far to the north" would indicate a re-curving pattern, would it not?

if the pattern shown at 384 actually verified a recurve would not be a certainty.

[Ntxw]

I'm looking at the European monthly TC forecast (paid site) and the forecast for August is 50-70% of normal activity.

We could've told you that using free models and satellite free of charge ! Thank you for the data, does it show which areas have the best likelihood of activity?

[cycloneye]

I'm looking at the European monthly TC forecast (paid site) and the forecast for August is 50-70% of normal activity.

Can you post graphics?

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the European monthly TC forecast (paid site) and the forecast for August is 50-70% of normal activity.

We could've told you that using free models and satellite free of charge ! Thank you for the data, does it show which areas have the best likelihood of activity?

It doesn't show areas, just levels of activity/ACE. No, can't post graphics.

[blp]

FWIW the 12z Euro now exits the area of interest around 17N versus the 00z run that had it around 20N. Does not do much with it after a few days. Still very high latitude to expect much of any development.

12z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

00z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[ninel conde]

I'm looking at the European monthly TC forecast (paid site) and the forecast for August is 50-70% of normal activity.

assuming the GFS is right and there is nothing thru aug 22 then at least the last week of aug might be active.

[ROCK]

70% chance is pretty good percentage...at least its a passing grade....

I dont think the GFS will be right because it hasnt been very good this year...period

18Z NAVGEM.....still holding serve on something coming off of SA at 150hr.....also has our CV system around 13-15N.....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So if the euro is correct in saying there's a 50-70% chance of normal activity, does that mean there is a 30-50% chance of below normal activity

[Kingarabian]

70% chance is pretty good percentage...at least its a passing grade....

I dont think the GFS will be right because it hasnt been very good this year...period

18Z NAVGEM.....still holding serve on something coming off of SA at 150hr.....also has our CV system around 13-15N.....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Doing a pretty good job here in the Pacific .

[northtxboy]

70% chance is pretty good percentage...at least its a passing grade....

I dont think the GFS will be right because it hasnt been very good this year...period

18Z NAVGEM.....still holding serve on something coming off of SA at 150hr.....also has our CV system around 13-15N.....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Rock you are a full blown navgem hugger

[ROCK]

Yeah I like the NAVGEM with the new upgrade.....the 0Z is running now....

0Z GFS at 138hr

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

[ROCK]

70% chance is pretty good percentage...at least its a passing grade....

I dont think the GFS will be right because it hasnt been very good this year...period

18Z NAVGEM.....still holding serve on something coming off of SA at 150hr.....also has our CV system around 13-15N.....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Doing a pretty good job here in the Pacific .

it never saw Dorian until after developement.....

[Siker]

70% chance is pretty good percentage...at least its a passing grade....

I dont think the GFS will be right because it hasnt been very good this year...period

18Z NAVGEM.....still holding serve on something coming off of SA at 150hr.....also has our CV system around 13-15N.....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Doing a pretty good job here in the Pacific .

it never saw Dorian until after developement.....

It did see Dorian, it just dropped it 2 or 3 days before he formed, so some credit is due. And at least it showed him after he developed, unlike some models .

[blp]

Hello 00z GFS, it now shows the first wave staying further west and lasting longer and then in the late range has a strong system depicted right behind it. Starting to see more life in the tropics!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013080700/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl.html

[BigB0882]

So if the euro is correct in saying there's a 50-70% chance of normal activity, does that mean there is a 30-50% chance of below normal activity

I believe the EURO is saying that it predicts August to have 50-70% OF normal activity. In other words, if ACE in August is typically around 100 then the EURO predicts this month to have anywhere from 50-70 worth of ACE. At least that is how I read it. (P.S. I totally made up those ACE numbers just to make the math easy) In simpler terms, it is predicting a less active August than is normal, by as much as half.

[wxman57]

So if the euro is correct in saying there's a 50-70% chance of normal activity, does that mean there is a 30-50% chance of below normal activity

I believe the EURO is saying that it predicts August to have 50-70% OF normal activity. In other words, if ACE in August is typically around 100 then the EURO predicts this month to have anywhere from 50-70 worth of ACE. At least that is how I read it. (P.S. I totally made up those ACE numbers just to make the math easy) In simpler terms, it is predicting a less active August than is normal, by as much as half.

Correct.

[caneman]

Looks like it will be hard to be an above average season if August activity will be below normal unless Sept. turn out to be hyperactive. On a good note it looks like the Atlantic is starting to moisten up on Water Vapor.