EPAC: INVEST 92E

[Kingarabian]

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invest_ep922013.invest
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201308071735
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013080712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922013
EP, 92, 2013080712, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1020W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has a Hurricane over Hawaii.


06z/12z GFS both have a strong Tropical Storm over Hawaii within 200 hours.

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 7 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HENRIETTE...LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[Alyono]

This is NOT the Hawaiian threat

That threat is another system that should take shape in a couple of days near 120W.

IMO, NHC is focusing on the wrong area as the models are not developing this, but instead something well to the west

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 7 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HENRIETTE...LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER LANDSEA

[Yellow Evan]

This is NOT the Hawaiian threat

That threat is another system that should take shape in a couple of days near 120W.

IMO, NHC is focusing on the wrong area as the models are not developing this, but instead something well to the west

Any chance both will form?

[supercane4867]

Any chance both will form?

[Alyono]

Now the models seem to be confused. Because this invest is moving quickly to the west, toward the area where the system was initially expected to form

[Kingarabian]

The only trouble this or the other disturbance near 120W could cause for Hawaii is if they deepen before 135W.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Alyono]

70 percent is far too low for a chance to develop.

Nearly every model has this developing. This looks to be closer to a 95 percent chance of development

[Yellow Evan]

70 percent is far too low for a chance to develop.

Nearly every model has this developing. This looks to be closer to a 95 percent chance of development

NHC likes to be conservative, given that they are new to this 5 day outlook.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest GFS shows no development for five days unless I'm confusing the two invests.

Edit: I was, it shows this and 93E forming. I thought a system on the left in the GFS was Henriette for a sec

[Yellow Evan]

Has this system hitting Hawaii, marking the first time since 1983 with 3 Hawaii direct hits.

[cycloneye]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

EP, 92, 2013080900, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1104W, 20, 1008, DB

[Yellow Evan]

Once again showing hawaii landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.