Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Well folks,is the time of the season to watch all the waves that roll out of Africa. Let's see if this one gets a name down the road.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P20L.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html

[cycloneye]

Here is a view of West Africa that shows the pouch well.

[Blown Away]

Until the GFS/Euro show a decent closed low I won't believe it will be more than another wave...

[ROCK]

Until the GFS/Euro show a decent closed low I won't believe it will be more than another wave...

the way things are going with these 2 models they are not going to show anything this year.....

[alienstorm]

Good size cluster coming off Africa and you can clearly see some rotation on the one inside Africa

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... ERNAFRICA/

[cycloneye]

Good size cluster coming off Africa and you can clearly see some rotation on the one inside Africa

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... ERNAFRICA/

Let's see how this pouch does as soon it hits the water on Friday.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET shows this pouch as a large area of convection with a broad area of low pressure over the Cape Verde islands at 72 hours.

[ninel conde]

looks nice tonight.

[gatorcane]

Some colors showing up near the Cape Verde islands on the 18Z Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Graphic:

[cycloneye]

I am eagered to see how it reacts when it hits a new environment in the next 12-24 hours.

[cycloneye]

Nothing important so far on ASCAT. Pass was made at 6:07 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

Still no mention of this pouch.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[MGC]

Looking at the latest Meteosat WV image, it appears that the eastern Atlantic has much more moist environment. Something to keep an eye on as it crosses the pond.....MGC

[wxman57]

It's still over Africa, which is why NHC isn't mentioning it yet. But it's poised to move offshore around 15N and move through the Cape Verde Islands. That's VERY far north. Not likely to move into the Caribbean (if it was to develop) starting from that latitude.

[ROCK]

I am confused I thought it already splashed down...I didnt think we were talking about the feature at 15N?

to be honest I see nothing up around 15N...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: I am confused I thought it already splashed down...I didnt think we were talking about the feature at 15N?

to be honest I see nothing up around 15N...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

it is, but there is no convection around the center

[ROCK]

:uarrow: I am confused I thought it already splashed down...I didnt think we were talking about the feature at 15N?

to be honest I see nothing up around 15N...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

it is, but there is no convection around the center

all the convection is around 10N or below...not sure how its going to survive without convection.

['CaneFreak]

The vorticity will likely re-align itself further south with the deepest convection. The easterly jet will likely promote this shift south as well.

all the convection is around 10N or below...not sure how its going to survive without convection.

[Hurricaneman]

The vorticity will likely re-align itself further south with the deepest convection. The easterly jet will likely promote this shift south as well.

all the convection is around 10N or below...not sure how its going to survive without convection.

The GFS has it moving SW towards the convection so your idea is sound and could take place the next few days

[ROCK]

The vorticity will likely re-align itself further south with the deepest convection. The easterly jet will likely promote this shift south as well.

all the convection is around 10N or below...not sure how its going to survive without convection.

agree..