Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM...pulls something off SA....turns into a Hurricane and heads towards the Yucatan channel....this is the 4th run in a row with this at different intensities....just sayin...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well at least you have something to keep you entertained during the model runs. Albeit realistic or not.

[ROCK]

thanks Mike.... but just sayin the 18Z GFS has the same scenario but does not develope it like the NAVGEM......every blind squirrel finds a nut and if the CMC bites tonight.. its on like donkey kong...

[northtxboy]

how crazy would that be if the nogaps opps sorry navgem was the first model to pick up on this

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The cmc could show it for 4-5 straight runs and I wouldn't give it a second glance. Not after earlier this year it showed us getting hit by back to back storms two weeks in a row. Of course as we know there was nothing, probably not even a ripple in the gulf those days.

[hurricaneCW]

It's a bit sketchy that models still aren't seeing significant even in the long range. This season might be a quick 3-4/5 week period with numerous storms one after the next.

I'm thinking after August 15-20 is when models will start going nuts and we will get legit development.

[ROCK]

It's a bit sketchy that models still aren't seeing significant even in the long range. This season might be a quick 3-4/5 week period with numerous storms one after the next.

I'm thinking after August 15-20 is when models will start going nuts and we will get legit development.

agree very sketchy....its like climo was taken out of every global.. They should be going nuts right now.

[Steve H.]

Interesting though. The NOGAPS was the only model that picked up Hurricane Mitch for about 10 days before he formed. It was driving the TPC nuts for over a week but they still hung onto it. He came off Venezuela/Columbia and got caught under the big heat ridge in the southern part of the Yucatan Channel, then into Nicaragua and Guatemala. Not saying this will occur. but strange that it picked up on him.

[ROCK]

since we are talking model in here.....the 18Z FIM9 shows something similar to the 18Z GFS....I also believe a few days ago it moved a TC up towards the Yucatan also......

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocal ... perimental FIM Model Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=244&adtfn=1&threshold=&attfn=-1&wjet=0

[Steve H.]

Sorry......don't know why it double posted.

[tolakram]

I got it.

[Hammy]

Getting an error message for that site.

[fendie]

Maybe he is talking about the 10m winds NE of Honduras @ 168 hours on the 18z Experimental FIM9


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocal ... 44&adtfn=1

[ROCK]

Maybe he is talking about the 10m winds NE of Honduras @ 168 hours on the 18z Experimental FIM9


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocal ... 44&adtfn=1

yes that is it.....18Z NAVGEM (hurricane) sniffing this as well as the GFS (slug of moisture)....all 0Z models are running so will update here as soon as they see something interesting.....

[RL3AO]

Western Caribbean is starting to look very favorable on the models. Those screaming easterlies are dying down leading to more convergence in the Western Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

That should help with the dry air in the Central Atlantic

[Alyono]

we just need a disturbance now

[ronjon]

Starting to get some model support for western caribbean development in a week or so. Last two runs of GFS, several runs of the NAVGEM and latest CMC all develop something and either move it into the GOM or BOC.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=189&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_wnatl_189_850_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=wnatl&param=850_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[Alyono]

Only model that actually has a TC is the NAVGEM. The others have a weak disturbance

[ronjon]

Sure its weak on CMC and GFS but there none-the-less. Pretty strong vorticity on the latest run of GFS. Here's the CMC. I think the main point is several models are latching on to something. I don't put much stock in intensity from global models a week out.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013080800/gem_mslp_wind_watl_32.png