Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Someone said this may form after moving into the E. Pacific. Is the steering really straightforward and a given that this will go due West until it crosses Central America? Any chance this could begin lifting?

Yep. As long as this ridge is parked over us and Texas it has nowhere to go but due west. The eastern periphery is supposed to weaken a little this weekend but not much.

[ROCK]

I wouldnt be too sure about that....the 18Z GFS pulls something (moisture) deep in the carib near SA up and towards the Yucatan....the only difference between this run and the 18Z NAVGEM is the NAVGEM turns it into a hurricane...

['CaneFreak]

So you're saying there's a chance?

Up to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.


A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N63W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 63W-65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 65W.

[Hammy]

Go figure, they raise the chances a bit and it goes poof.

[tailgater]

LLC exposed to the NW and it's getting too close to SA, other than that it's looking pretty decent.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[Gustywind]

Stays at 10%.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[tolakram]

Latest visible

[Sanibel]

Too weak.


Tiny weak systems are susceptible to the environment around them.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Saved Loop:


Close Up: 9:15am


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

There's still no LLC. Obs across the A-B-C Islands just to its south are from the east. Should move into Central America on Saturday. 10% chance is being a bit generous. Probably closer to 0 than 10.

[Blown Away]

Loop above, what's up with all the ULL's moving towards Florida?? I think this is the 3rd one in past few weeks??

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Loop above, what's up with all the ULL's moving towards Florida?? I think this is the 3rd one in past few weeks??

The TUTT has set up a good bit farther west than normal this season. As long as its there it will be hard for Florida to get hit from the SE. The bad news (for Florida) is that the GFS moves it out next week.

[floridasun78]

have feeling yellow circle will be gone by 2pm

[Hurricaneman]

have feeling yellow circle will be gone by 2pm

If the models continue to develop late next week they might go to 0% in 48 hrs but like 20% in 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Down to 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DECREASED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[ROCK]

There's still no LLC. Obs across the A-B-C Islands just to its south are from the east. Should move into Central America on Saturday. 10% chance is being a bit generous. Probably closer to 0 than 10.

I guess you didn't see the OBS out of Barbados yesterday...

[fci]

have feeling yellow circle will be gone by 2pm

If the models continue to develop late next week they might go to 0% in 48 hrs but like 20% in 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not sure that they have the greatest handle on the 24 hour vs. 5 day percentages. If I'm not mistaken they have been the same for all systems in all forecasts since they started.
If conditions might be better when this system gets to the Western Carib. wouldn't the % chance rise just a little looking 5 days out?
Just thinkin........

[alienstorm]

The only thing I can think is that the origin of the one that some of the models are showing is not from this but from another disturbance.

Too date I am not impress with this new 5 day outlook, but let's see what happens in the coming weeks.

[RL3AO]

Too date I am not impress with this new 5 day outlook, but let's see what happens in the coming weeks.

Why not?