00Z GFS proggs SE Florida landfall....third run in a row.

JetMaxx · #1 Postby **JetMaxx** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 12:57 am

As my meteorogist friend DT would say...the trend is your friend...
Well, the 00z GFS again proggs Isabel making landfall in southeast Florida...this time around Broward and Palm Beach counties on 9/20 -- then slowly drifting NNW to Orlando and Jacksonville and inland across Georgia...

This is the third GFS run in a row to prog a south Florida landfall....together with tonight's ECMWF and the 00z 120 hour NHC track models, confidence is increasing that hurricane Isabel will strike the state of Florida, likely as a major hurricane in 8-10 days....stay tuned.

AussieMark · #2 Postby **AussieMark** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 1:01 am

Does anyone have any website links of forecast links for the various TC models that people have been talking about.

Does any hint at a landfall in Sth Florida + a Gulf of Mexico (any state) strike

PTrackerLA · #3 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 1:22 am

Wow, that's a pretty scary scenario but it is still 8-10 days out, it's just a wait and see deal which gets tiresome!

deb_in_nc · #4 Postby **deb_in_nc** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 2:20 am

Well, my heart just dropped to the pit of my stomach. I'm in Palm Beach County. Too dang close to the beach. Isn't there supposed to be a website of motels that accept pets in case of a hurricane?

Debbie

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 2:46 am

Debbie look under http://www.hotels.com and see what you find if you see a pet symbol you are in luck! I hope this helps.

#6 Postby **alicia-w** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 6:58 am

For all Floridians. believe it or not, the state of Florida has a pretty decent Disaster Prep web page, especially regarding hurricanes.

the link is:

http://www.floridadisaster.org

select "Public" in the left column and then peruse the page for hurricane and other local safety stuff..

john697 · #7 Postby **john697** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:02 am

The 6z GFS is even more interesting....it stalls the storm over south FL.

wrkh99 · #8 Postby **wrkh99** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:05 am

After Danny .... I never want to here the words stall and hurricane in the same sentence

ameriwx2003 · #9 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:08 am

Yes the 06Z run of the GFS again brings it to Florida and the 0Z UKMET while further North has it bending back West at the end of the run .

GulfBreezer · #10 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:10 am

The thing that frightens me about these kinds of "trends" is that the Florida Peninsula is not that wide and a major cane can impact the east coast and move to the GOM with some weakening but still intact and the GOM waters are prime for a breath of new life to any system. We saw this with Erin in 95. With this storm still being 10 days out, there are still quite a few scenarios that could play out once she makes landfall somewhere. Going to be a VERY long wait folks!!

#11 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 8:31 am

Well ofcoarse since Andrew you can pretty much expect people to go nuts here if a major hurricane is very close to South Florida as was the case with Floyd. I have to admit that the last few model runs have looked very disturbing, it is still just a tad bit too far out to make any conclusions. Basically ANYBODY on the east coast from Florida all the way up needs to look. Cause always when they APPEAR to threaten Florida, they stall, turn north and go to North Carolina. So I am not totally sold on the idea of it threatening Florida just yet.

JetMaxx · #12 Postby **JetMaxx** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:09 am

06z GFS also proggs landfall in SoFla (4th run in a row!)...a little sooner than 00z run did, and stalls the hurricane near or just off the SW Florida coast for 5-6 days. I doubt that extreme scenario plays out...but the continuing trend of a powerful, slow moving hurricane crossing Florida is a great concern of mine....because most major Florida hurricanes of the past have been slow moving storms -- why the effects of rainfall/ flooding and storm surge were so severe.

The great September 1947 Ft Lauderdale hurricane took 24 hours to cross from Broward county to Naples then into the GOM - and some areas of south Florida recieved 30-40" of rainfall. I've seen old newspaper photos of water several feet deep in the streets of Fort Lauderdale and Hialeah.

PW

Lindaloo · #13 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:24 am

I have family on Andros Island. It is basically all military. I have not been able to get anybody on the phone. All the lines are busy.

ColdFront77 · #14 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:01 pm

GulfBreezer wrote:The thing that frightens me about these kinds of "trends" is that the Florida Peninsula is not that wide and a major cane can impact the east coast and move to the GOM with some weakening but still intact and the GOM waters are prime for a breath of new life to any system. We saw this with Erin in 95. With this storm still being 10 days out, there are still quite a few scenarios that could play out once she makes landfall somewhere. Going to be a VERY long wait folks!!

As of now, it doesn't look like Isabel will continue on a westerly course, if and when it gets west of 80ºW.

Scott_inVA · #15 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:04 pm

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:Does anyone have any website links of forecast links for the various TC models that people have been talking about.

Does any hint at a landfall in Sth Florida + a Gulf of Mexico (any state) strike

V
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#16 Postby **Pileus** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:07 pm

Ok so when will the models begin to agree on thesame scenario ? I agree
with this getting so tiresome.

00Z GFS proggs SE Florida landfall....third run in a row.

00Z GFS proggs SE Florida landfall....third run in a row.

when models agree

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