Global model runs discussion

['CaneFreak]

Folks. The 18Z NAVGEM 10 meter winds suggest a TD/weak TS. Nothing more. Nothing less. Let's stick to the data and stop messing around. Here's a 10 meter wind analysis. They suggest MAYBE 30 knots at BEST. The scale only goes up to 50 knots and it is nowhere near the top of the scale. Please look at the plots more carefully.

[BigB0882]

Thank you for explaining that. That sure looked a lot stronger on the other map, very symmetric and very tight isobars. None of the other models show that with it being so weak. At least now I know!

['CaneFreak]

No problem. All you have to do is go to the left of the plot in that link that Rock posted and click on one of the other parameters listed (i.e. 10 meter winds).

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Thank you for explaining that. That sure looked a lot stronger on the other map, very symmetric and very tight isobars. None of the other models show that with it being so weak. At least now I know!

[Hammy]

18zGFS shows basically nothing thru aug 24th.

it actually shows 30mph/1007mb in the Gulf on 18th which could be early hints of tropical depression/storm. In addition to that, the last few panels before the resolution drop due to time frame has a tropical storm on 8/16 near CV. Obviously nothing set in stone but it is certainly showing more activity, and since it seems to have gone the way of the Euro with the upgrade given how poorly it handled Dorian in the last days before development, as well as the Navy model showing Caribbean development, it is increasingly likely that we'll bet getting something by the next few weekends.

this is 192 hours:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp32.png

you may be referring to the 12z gfs which did have a weak cv system at 240 and maybe a very weak low near the yuc at 192. i dont see it on the 18z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013080818/gfs_mslp_wind_atl_64.png Shows up better on this particular map since PSU/FSU maps tend to have lower resolution and size.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

4 tropical storms in the Atlantic on the 0z GFS.

[Fego]

12Z GFS' run (372 hrs) showed a tc moving away from the Caribbean.



Latest 00Z run at 372 hrs shows a tc less away from the NE Caribbean.



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[Rgv20]

It's been a few runs in a row that the GFS is suggesting a possible TC in the Southern GOM/BOC in 9 to 10 days.....Tonight's 0z run is no different. Something to keep an eye on!



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By day 12 0zGFS shows a huge storm in the Western Gulf!



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[GlennOBX]

No problem. All you have to do is go to the left of the plot in that link that Rock posted and click on one of the other parameters listed (i.e. 10 meter winds).

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Thank you for explaining that. That sure looked a lot stronger on the other map, very symmetric and very tight isobars. None of the other models show that with it being so weak. At least now I know!

time for another one of what will likely be many "models 101" kinds of questions from me. why is the model/graph called "10 meter winds"? is that the height above the surface being represented?

thanks in advance.

[hurricanetrack]

Glenn - yes. That is right. Very literal in this sense.

[GlennOBX]

Glenn - yes. That is right. Very literal in this sense.

so, what's the advantage of seeing winds at this height as opposed to other heights, or at the surface?

[weatherwindow]

Glenn - yes. That is right. Very literal in this sense.

so, what's the advantage of seeing winds at this height as opposed to other heights, or at the surface?

Good morning, Glenn...the significance of 10m is that is the height at which official(NWS, NHC, WMO) surface winds speeds are measured/reported in TC and all surface winds, regardless of source, for that matter...Grtz from KW, Rich

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,the 00z Euro has something off Africa.

[fendie]

The FIM8 continues to increase the strength of the disturbance some models (e.g., NAVGEM, GFS) are forecasting to develop off the coast of SA. It moves NW towards the Yucatan and enters the GOM around the 15-16th of August. Here are the last three runs of the experimental FIM8:

0z 8/8/13



12z 8/8/13



0z 8/9/13

[blp]

The FIM8 continues to increase the strength of the disturbance some models (e.g., NAVGEM, GFS) are forecasting to develop off the coast of SA. It moves NW towards the Yucatan and enters the GOM around the 15-16th of August. Here are the last three runs of the experimental FIM8:

0z 8/8/13

http://imageshack.us/a/img844/5917/bfrx.jpg[/img]

12z 8/8/13

http://imageshack.us/a/img27/27/kv6n.jpg[/img]

0z 8/9/13

http://imageshack.us/a/img407/668/p01t.jpg[/img]

Let's see if the FIM can prove its worth on this one since it has beaten the big boys on this cyclogensis. I really would like to see us have a third top tier model.

[Blown Away]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html
06z GFS has a tropical system impacting the NE Caribbean on August 25th...GFS continues to develop a system in the open Atlantic...Compared to previous runs, the 06z starts developing as it nears the Caribbean instead of in the eastern Atlantic...

[ninel conde]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html
06z GFS has a tropical system impacting the NE Caribbean on August 25th...GFS continues to develop a system in the open Atlantic...Compared to previous runs, the 06z starts developing as it nears the Caribbean instead of in the eastern Atlantic...

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp48.png

0z looked alot more impressive. 06z just looks like an area of lower pressure, not an organized system.

[Fego]

Just to let your imagination run, here what the GFS ensemble #2 member showed at 00Z. Just for entertaining purpose.


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[Blown Away]

[img]http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/662/vsn9.jpg[/ig]
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html
06z GFS has a tropical system impacting the NE Caribbean on August 25th...GFS continues to develop a system in the open Atlantic...Compared to previous runs, the 06z starts developing as it nears the Caribbean instead of in the eastern Atlantic...

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp48.png

0z looked alot more impressive. 06z just looks like an area of lower pressure, not an organized system.

I agree, in earlier runs the GFS developed the system in the eastern Atlantic and recurved, but when you see a wave begin to develop just east of the Caribbean there is a better chance of impact. The waves that develop after 50W always get my attention...

[weatherwindow]

[img]http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/662/vsn9.jpg[/ig]
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html
06z GFS has a tropical system impacting the NE Caribbean on August 25th...GFS continues to develop a system in the open Atlantic...Compared to previous runs, the 06z starts

0z looked alot more impressive. 06z just looks like an area of lower pressure, not an organized system.

I agree, in earlier runs the GFS developed the system in the eastern Atlantic and recurved, but when you see a wave begin to develop just east of the Caribbean there is a better chance of impact. The waves that develop after 50W always get my attention...

Good morning, BA...note the suggested ridging to the north of the Greater Antilles to the west of the system, post the 384hr mark..delayed development also increases the potential for Bahamian/US involvement...Grtz from KW, Rich
Note the location of the 1016mb isobar on the 11-15day pressure anomoly...extending to the southeast coast..of course this is well beyond the realm of reliable forecasting but informational none the less

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pics_3.png

[ROCK]

384hr GFS..is beyond la la land but at least its starting to react to climo...took forever though...