WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Organizing fast.

[vrif]

The thing I didn't trust with the GFS runs was the speed at which the STR was receding. From a mid-latitude perspective, I always felt the GFS forecast a system a bit too fast.

[cycloneye]

Organizing fast.

[vrif]

TCFA from HKO at 8HKT (0Z)


LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

HERE IS THE LATEST WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG
OBSERVATORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING GENERALLY FINE WEATHER
TO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. BESIDES, THE PRESSURE IS RATHER LOW
OVER THE SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES, A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING.

WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY

IT WILL BE FINE AND VERY HOT WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF
AROUND 33 DEGREES. LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK : FINE AND VERY HOT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


DISPATCHED BY HONG KONG OBSERVATORY AT 07:48 HKT ON 09.08.2013

[dexterlabio]

so this TD is still a few kilometers away from the Philippine Area of Responsibility, but PAGASA already gave a local name "Labuyo". They didn't warn about a new cyclone entering PAR today, things must be going really fast.

[vrif]

WTPQ20 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 13.3N 135.0E POOR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 14.1N 133.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[vrif]

SSMIS 0808 2337Z pass through the eye.

[mrbagyo]

I'm quite surprised by its uber quick development.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[vrif]

WTPQ30 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 13.3N 135.0E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 090000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=



SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
WTPN31 PGTW 090300
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 135.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 135.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.1N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.8N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.6N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.0N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 134.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
NORTHWARD OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey all, just made my latest video update on this. All initial thoughts. Lets see if it comes true.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRclwaXRkc4[/youtube]

[vrif]

Odd, 11W disappeared from the NRL and FNMOC Tropical Cyclone Page.

WTPQ20 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 13.5N 134.5E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 15.4N 132.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[vrif]

The last 4 GFS track cycle keeps going west and west. Now it is in agreement with previous EC runs. Seems like Hainan Island is a TC magnet this year.

edit: CMC is also in agreement with the westward track.

[vrif]

OSCAT 0809 0309Z. Looks like 11W has detached from the monsoon trough and strong convection in the northeast portion.

[vrif]

We have track agreement from all models.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thats more like it

[vrif]

11W reappears on NRL and FNMOC website.
I notice from the model runs is that 11W then merges with Invest 97W in the SCS. Is this going to be an additional fuel source for 11W?


WTPQ20 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 13.5N 133.6E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 15.7N 131.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPQ30 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 13.5N 133.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 090600 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[vrif]

Forecast Positions and Intensities
Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
14:00 HKT 10 August 2013 14.7 N 130.2 E Tropical Storm 75 km/h
14:00 HKT 11 August 2013 15.9 N 126.6 E Severe Tropical Storm 105 km/h
14:00 HKT 12 August 2013 17.9 N 122.6 E Typhoon 120 km/h

[RobWESTPACWX]

DVORAK looking at 35kt winds now.

Date (yyyymmddhh): 2013080819
SATCON (3mem): MSLP = 1001 hPa MSW = 35 kt

[jaguarjace]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/

[RobWESTPACWX]

JTWC swings their forecast farther south this evening. Also long range points towards Hainan agreeing with many of the models. They also knocked down the intensity quite a lot from a peak of 120kts earlier today to 85kts now.