Texas Summer - 2013

[horselattitudesfarm]

Noticed the latest NOAA Drought Outlook pulled improving drought conditions for the eastern half of Texas and, instead, puts us in a persistence pattern with drought continuing through Oct.



So......what else is new. At least I've been out in a place drier than Texas (Oceanside California, between San Diego and LA), but the temperature is only 72 for a high and 62 for a low each and every day like clockwork. There is almost no fluctuation from these temps and I've been here for 2 weeks.

[Ntxw]

Tired of the heat yet? We'll I'm here again to give a little light even if it is dim at the end of the tunnel. As you can see cooler air mass did not advance into Texas instead it moved more E/SE than due south. We saw this as numerous rains continuously moving through Kansas and northern Oklahoma for days. The high pressure dome is weakening and the models shift it further east. This is good analog for a TUTT like feature to move into Texas (mostly SE and S TX). It's going to get more humid and scattered showers this weekend.

After that the good news is even though the NWS has been saying 100s return with weak ridging rebuilding, I do not believe that will be the case. NW flow means high pressure returns to the inter-mountain west and another weak high near the SE coast. This has 2 implications for Texas.

-First, that pattern usually means possible MCS or potential thunderstorms going from NW to SE especially northern Texas.

-Second there is interest in the Caribbean of TC formation, if that holds true we are definitely in play from whatever forms due to the ridges setting up as mentioned (return flow). Climo is about to go downwards and I think this potential pattern shift is signaling the change.

[weatherdude1108]

I sure do hope so! I'm ready for a pattern change!

I know we're still within the dregs of the worst time of Summer in Texas, but Bob Rose also seems to think the pattern may take a shift.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Rgv20]

This past 3 weeks has been brutal! At least this weekend a Tropical Wave/Inverted Trough should bring a chance of rain to South Texas....The real chance for widespread rain look to be in the 10 to 15 days..


It's been a few runs in a row that the GFS is suggesting a possible TC in the Southern GOM/BOC in 9 to 10 days.....Tonight's 0z run is no different. Something to keep an eye on!



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By day 12 0zGFS shows a huge storm in the Western Gulf!



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[Ntxw]

Brett Anderson of ACCUWX posted his thoughts from the ECMWF monthly forecast for fall and winter. Based on what he is saying it looks like a blocking pattern setting up the next few months from the model. Blocks in Canada, Alaska, and ridging continuing out west all favoring cold east of the Rockies. Perhaps wxman57 can chime in if he has access to that data.

[Tireman4]

HGX mentioned a front.....

UPPER 90S. END OF THE WEEK
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IT HAS A FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. GFS HAS A
SIMILAR PATTERN BUT HAS THE FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THUR/FRI
INSTEAD OF WED/THU FOR THE ECMWF. LEANED MORE ON THE GFS AS DO NOT
THINK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE QUITE THAT STRONG. STILL WILL HAVE 20
POPS FOR THE FORECAST AND MAX TEMPS SLIDING BACK TOWARDS THE MID
90S AS A RESULT.


But I do not think they buy it...yet....

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[weatherdude1108]

Fighting match between easterly waves and ridge. The ridge has overstayed its presence, and was never welcome. Summer is over as far as I'm concerned. I'm done with it -- as the drought goes on. Possible front and thunderstorms late next week? Here's hoping for the winds of change.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL SOME CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE ARE TWO EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THESE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE TEXAS
COAST AND WEAKEN THE UPPER HIGH. THE FIRST WILL LIKELY WASH OUT AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE COAST SATURDAY...BUT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE BETTER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
DUE TO THE STRONG HEATING EXPECTED...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.THE GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STILL BE NEAR 100 SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SECOND WAVE LOOKS TO A HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING
INLAND...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL MEAN
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OUR COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE COAST. AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND IT WILL BE BACK TO HOT AND DRY. AFTER MOST AREAS
STAYING BELOW 100 ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO 100
TO 105 FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO TEXAS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THAT MAY
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

[Rgv20]

At least I will get to see some Clouds this weekend!! Hopefully we get some decent rains!



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A tropical wave will approach the Lower Coast early Saturday and move inland through the weekend. Increasing Gulf moisture will spark scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the region with showers more isolated across the far west. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in tropical downpours. The rain and more cloud cover should keep temperatures close to normal. -Campbell-

[Ntxw]

I'm very optimistic of the latest forecast from the computer models. They have not pushed it back instead it's now within reach medium range. Both the HPC and reliable models have good thunderstorm opportunity. We may have broken the back of summer. North first and slowly south.

Some good news this morning in SE Texas. Thunderstorms courtesy of the TUTT/Western Gulf Entity

[vbhoutex]

Good news for some in our area. Notice the storms are all S of I-10. Still sunny without a drop at the house 2 miles N of I-10 on the West side of Houston.

edit at noon- Storms in the area, thunder rumbling, but all I have seen so far is a bird flying over relieving himself.

[Tireman4]

[

edit at noon- Storms in the area, thunder rumbling, but all I have seen so far is a bird flying over relieving himself. [/quote]

And that is your shower sir...LOL....no, I hope you get some. We got a little this morning..

[Rgv20]

Its Raining!!!!!! That is a welcome site!



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[Ntxw]

Pattern change still coming after next few days. Good fronts coming with backdoor troughing cutting into Texas, could be some sub 90 highs north of I-20 and low mid 90s elsewhere. The mornings will feel better in the low 70s.

Hoping this verifies

[Rgv20]

Had 0.60 inches of Rain on Saturday! Today had a passing shower but did not amount too much, at least it cool off the afternoon!

[vbhoutex]

Had 0.60 inches of Rain on Saturday! Today had a passing shower but did not amount too much, at least it cool off the afternoon!

Same here. We're thinking about getting out the woolies. Highs only in the low 90s last 2 days instead of low 100s!!

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose hints at a little more hope in the forecast.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Ntxw]

Pattern change has commenced. While 100s from here on out are definitely still possible, I believe the meat of it is over. Most guidance keep most of us between mid 80s to mid 90s for the foreseeable future with daily chances of scattered rain. I wouldn't count out 60s for lows in the outlying areas sometime later this week. Unofficial fall (SON) begins in a few weeks while officially the equinox is a little over a month away. Time to look at the WPAC for recurving storms to signal bigger fronts

****
Snippet from FW

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT THIS MONTH WILL BE CENTERED WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS.
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED BY SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. BEGINNING
TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
FOR AUGUST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

[Ntxw]

I am happy to report that the North Texas branch of the PWC today has received a little over 1 inch of rain (still falling) from a slow moving back-building storm cell in the middle of the metroplex with lots of lightning and thunder.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I am happy to report that the North Texas branch of the PWC today has received a little over 1 inch of rain (still falling) from a slow moving back-building storm cell in the middle of the metroplex with lots of lightning and thunder.

Big goose egg at my house here in ever-dry Collin County.

[Portastorm]

I sure enjoyed the 60s and 70s temperatures I experienced in Ohio last week. Got out of the car last night to get gas in Hillsboro and was greeted with a warm blast of 97-degree temps at 8 p.m. Ugh.