Global model runs discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5641 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:01 pm

Nothing from CV at Friday's 12z GFS after that model had a hurricane on Thursday's 12z? :roll:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5642 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:Nothing from CV at Friday's 12z GFS after that model had a hurricane on Thursday's 12z? :roll:



why the eye roll? That is TYPICAL in long range predictions
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5643 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:35 pm

Alyono wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Nothing from CV at Friday's 12z GFS after that model had a hurricane on Thursday's 12z? :roll:



why the eye roll? That is TYPICAL in long range predictions


:roll: :roll:
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#5644 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:48 pm

12zGFS still showing a possible TC in the BOC/Southern GOM in 8 to 10 days.

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#5645 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:02 pm

Hmmm... So GFS is falling in line somewhat with the NAVGEM.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5646 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:04 pm

GFS still showing a tropical storm on 8/15 off CV.

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#5647 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:07 pm

12zNAVGEM has also been consistent on moving a possible TC from the Caribbean North until the GOM....We shall see what happens as the NOGAPS tends to spin up ghost storms in the Southern/NW Caribbean.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5648 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:09 pm

12z GFS has a weak low in the eastern Atlantic that dissipates quickly and a weak low that moves from BOC into Mexico. Wow, the 12z GFS goes through August 25th and Septemeber will have to be wild to come near the predicted number of systems...Could we go all of August w/o a hurricane??? Maybe...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5649 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:20 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z GFS has a weak low in the eastern Atlantic that dissipates quickly and a weak low that moves from BOC into Mexico. Wow, the 12z GFS goes through August 25th and Septemeber will have to be wild to come near the predicted number of systems...Could we go all of August w/o a hurricane??? Maybe...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html


Possible, but I see this as a two step process for the models. First they hint at a pattern change, then once (if) the pattern change happens model output will change significantly.

I don't think anything past 5 days is reliable anyway, so right now I'm only convinced we'll remain quiet until the 14th or 15th.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5650 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:29 pm

the NAVGEM has shown this for about 12 runs in a row now and the FIM is seeing the same thing...GOM issue in the medium range.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5651 Postby perk » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:30 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z GFS has a weak low in the eastern Atlantic that dissipates quickly and a weak low that moves from BOC into Mexico. Wow, the 12z GFS goes through August 25th and Septemeber will have to be wild to come near the predicted number of systems...Could we go all of August w/o a hurricane??? Maybe...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html



I would be totally surprised if we do.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5652 Postby Stormlover2012 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:37 pm

We will see a hurricane in august
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5653 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:44 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z GFS has a weak low in the eastern Atlantic that dissipates quickly and a weak low that moves from BOC into Mexico. Wow, the 12z GFS goes through August 25th and Septemeber will have to be wild to come near the predicted number of systems...Could we go all of August w/o a hurricane??? Maybe...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html



im glad you said it, lol. i do think as i posted last week the BOC will be the best place to see a landfall in the basin and it wouldnt shock me to see models show a landfalling hurricane before the end of august
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5654 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 2:03 pm

12Z FIM has a low in the SW Gulf/BoC at 168hrs:

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5655 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 09, 2013 2:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z FIM has a low in the SW Gulf/BoC at 168hrs:

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_je ... m_f168.png



the pattern change still on track? i do see signs the trof may exit off florida
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5656 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 2:14 pm

ninel conde wrote:the pattern change still on track? i do see signs the trof may exit off florida


The upper low is already moving out to the WSW, as predicted by the models. How long it stays gone remains to be seen.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5657 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 2:14 pm

It was the Florida trough that was a factor in 2004 with Hurricane Charley's track...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5658 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Aug 09, 2013 3:44 pm

First the ULL passing by. Which didn't pan out to well for rain. Then SAL for the weekend into next week. Then the games begin. At least according to some models. But I think more will come into agreement on the pattern change coming. Just in time for the beginning of the peak. :eek:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5659 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:39 pm

rest of the 12Z FIM at 200+ hrs

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#5660 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:44 pm

may need to watch the SW GOM. Conditions may become favorable there over the next week or so
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