fci wrote:Not sure that they have the greatest handle on the 24 hour vs. 5 day percentages. If I'm not mistaken they have been the same for all systems in all forecasts since they started.
If conditions might be better when this system gets to the Western Carib. wouldn't the % chance rise just a little looking 5 days out?
Just thinkin........
Thats because all the systems in the Atlantic have had either no chance of forming, or would only form in the next two days resulting in the same percentage. If you look right now in the EPac you see two systems, one with a 10 and 30 percent chance and the other with a 40 and 70 percent chance.