Global model runs discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Starting look like I was correct, the next area to watch will be western Carib. or Gulf by mid to late next week. Then eastward we go a looking!

[Alyono]

18Z GFS dropped the GOM system

[cycloneye]

18Z GFS dropped the GOM system

Being on land destroyed it on this run.

[Hammy]

18Z GFS dropped the GOM system

Being on land destroyed it on this run.

looks like development will now hinge on which model gets the track right.

[Dean4Storms]

18Z GFS dropped the GOM system

NAVGEM still with it.

[Rgv20]

Being on land destroyed it on this run.

Correct! On this loop you can clearly see it tracks thru Central America, Yucatan Peninsula and it barely emerges in the BOC... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013080918/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html

[cycloneye]

For sure NAVGEM has been consistant like ROCK says. Here is the 18z.

[Rgv20]

18zNavgem goes all out at the end of its run!



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[gatorcane]

Dr Jeff Masters made a very interesting blog about the models that is very educational.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... commenttop

Cycloneye, thanks for sharing this very informative blog about the models. I found this part interesting regarding the FIM model plus the SPC3 looks promising as intensity forecasts continue to be extremely challenging to forecast:

"However, the new FIM9 15-km global model was competitive with the ECMWF and GFS models for track, and the new CIRA Statistical Intensity Consensus (SPC3) model for intensity performed better than many of the traditional intensity models."

[hurricanehunter69]

GFS is definitely getting active now. I counted 5 storms on the 00Z, 3 storms on the 06Z, 3 storms on the 12Z, and 2 storms on the 18Z thru August 25th. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gf ... precip.gif

[Alyono]

0Z GFS again has a GOM storm

[Kingarabian]

I guess the Euro is taking the 2013 Hurricane season off.

[Alyono]

I guess the Euro is taking the 2013 Hurricane season off.

It also says Utor will remain a depression

It CANNOT be used for intensity until the TC interacts with a mid-latitude system. Something likely horrible in the parameterization

[Alyono]

Is a bit curious that the Canadian still refuses to have a storm through the next 10 days. Gives one pause when forecasting development when that model does not develop anything, since it develops everything

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is a bit curious that the Canadian still refuses to have a storm through the next 10 days. Gives one pause when forecasting development when that model does not develop anything, since it develops everything

Didn't the big upgrade fix that issue?

[gatorcane]

Global models continue to be quite lackluster on any development for the next 10 days at least. Only possibility at the moment would be a Western Caribbean / Yucatan / Western GOM system that develops around 5 days from now but even for that system, global models have backed off some.

The 384 hour 06Z GFS shows virtually nothing from the Cape Verde season yet except way out around 360+ hours which is suspect this far out.

[RL3AO]

CMC still hasn't had problems developing 3 to 5 storms per run in the EPac.

[Alyono]

12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.

One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor

[floridasun78]

their issue with models that dont show tropical getting active doing start peck part season

['CaneFreak]

This is an extremely interesting point that I never even thought of. Thanks for sharing.

12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.

One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor