Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ninel conde]

Thermodynamically, the Atlantic is primed and ready for an active season. The waters easily support a major hurricane throughout most of the basin. The general problem so far and continues to be an overall lack of tropical disturbances with strong pre-existing vorticity. With the MJO being forecasted to remain in the circle of death for the foreseeable future, we are going to have to get some strong tropical waves to move off of Africa soon. I just don't see much else that will instigate tropical cyclones right now throughout the Atlantic domain. I must say I am pretty shocked at the lack of disturbances that we have seen so far but take heart little ones. This season is far from over. The peak is still 4 weeks away and we have all of September and October as well. A lot can happen in 12 weeks time.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

mid level dry air is what is destroying the waves. i dont think i have ever seen a season with so few waves with convection across the atlantic. wxman57 said there will be a tropical pattern change next week.

[ROCK]

sure looks like that ULL over FL was just about to get to the surface.....see sat view...MLC exposed right over FL....that is not in the upper levels...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[TheStormExpert]

Thermodynamically, the Atlantic is primed and ready for an active season. The waters easily support a major hurricane throughout most of the basin. The general problem so far and continues to be an overall lack of tropical disturbances with strong pre-existing vorticity. With the MJO being forecasted to remain in the circle of death for the foreseeable future, we are going to have to get some strong tropical waves to move off of Africa soon. I just don't see much else that will instigate tropical cyclones right now throughout the Atlantic domain. I must say I am pretty shocked at the lack of disturbances that we have seen so far but take heart little ones. This season is far from over. The peak is still 4 weeks away and we have all of September and October as well. A lot can happen in 12 weeks time.

Really the MJO should not fully be used as an excuse for Tropical Development like it is and was during June and July. The overall main issue I see is lack of instability just like the last 2 seasons. Something else just doesn't seem right too, normally your tracking a couple of areas of interest and maybe 1 storm at this time of year. I'm somewhat suprised NOAA didn't drop their numbers more than what they did.

['CaneFreak]

What are you talking about? The MJO is and was a HUGE player in the early season and was a big factor in why we saw early season activity. Had we not had the MJO, we might not have seen at least 2 of the systems. The early season conditions were extremely unfavorable but yet we still managed to crank out 4 systems which is in large thanks to the MJO. Since the MJO has gone unfavorable, we haven't see ANY activity due to a very large area of sinking motion over much of the basin.

Really the MJO should not fully be used as an excuse for Tropical Development like it is and was during June and July. The overall main issue I see is lack of instability just like the last 2 seasons. Something else just doesn't seem right too, normally your tracking a couple of areas of interest and maybe 1 storm at this time of year. I'm somewhat suprised NOAA didn't drop their numbers more than what they did.

[TheStormExpert]

What are you talking about? The MJO is and was a HUGE player in the early season and was a big factor in why we saw early season activity. Had we not had the MJO, we might not have seen at least 2 of the systems. The early season conditions were extremely unfavorable but yet we still managed to crank out 4 systems which is in large thanks to the MJO. Since the MJO has gone unfavorable, we haven't see ANY activity due to a very large area of sinking motion over much of the basin.

Really the MJO should not fully be used as an excuse for Tropical Development like it is and was during June and July. The overall main issue I see is lack of instability just like the last 2 seasons. Something else just doesn't seem right too, normally your tracking a couple of areas of interest and maybe 1 storm at this time of year. I'm somewhat suprised NOAA didn't drop their numbers more than what they did.

What I meant to say was we usually depend less on the MJO as we head into the peak of the season (Aug-Oct). This year may not be that case due to the lack of instability. The MJO will likely be more dependent for Tropical Development this year.

['CaneFreak]

Instability is getting WAY too much attention this year IMHO. You can still have an active season without normal or above normal instability. You can still get major hurricanes without normal or above normal instability. What we really need are the disturbances and they are just nonexistent right now. By the time we get the disturbances, I think the conditions will become more favorable out there and then there will no longer be any talk about the lack of instability because it won't matter. I think this season is going to be an end loaded season with a ton of activity in September, October, and maybe even into November. We haven't see one of these seasons in a while and I think it has a lot of people nervous thinking the calls for an active season aren't going to pan out, season cancel, etc. People have forgotten all about the years like 1997 that beat the odds going against it (El Nino) which still produced large storm numbers and major hurricanes. And we don't even have an El Nino this year?! This year we are just lacking the disturbances so far but I think that will change.

What I meant to say was we usually depend less on the MJO as we head into the peak of the season (Aug-Oct). This year may not be that case due to the lack of instability. The MJO will likely be more dependent for Tropical Development this year.

[Ntxw]

Very good discussion here. Lets remember, the MJO influences activity any time of year. If you want the big canes even during peak typically you will need the MJO's help (there is very strong evidence of this in Klotzbach's paper). It's just that you don't need it as much to seed storms during peak time, however when the basin for whatever reason won't produce you will need it's help much like the period early on. The MJO is at it's strongest during neutral or weak Nina, no coincidence those years are quite active.

And about lacking storms, they really aren't lacking. Many people have pointed out that Africa has been quite active and earlier many said there were a lot of storms coming out of Africa for so early of the season. They have been squashed by sinking air once they move out.

['CaneFreak]

Key phrase in bold. I agree. Thanks.

And about lacking storms, they really aren't lacking. Many people have pointed out that Africa has been quite active and earlier many said there were a lot of storms coming out of Africa for so early of the season. They have been squashed by sinking air once they move out.

['CaneFreak]

This was an EXCELLENT post. I could not agree more. Today's map was even more convincing that the lid over the basin is coming off now at least temporarily.

Dry air may not be a problem but sinking air is. There is a kelvin wave over in the EPAC, I think once we get a storm or two going near the Mexican west coast shortly after the W Carib or southern Gulf may get active. Models should slowly (some already have) get optimistic in this region for development, I would bet this area first and the MDR later in the month with the progression of the Kelvin wave. Problem with a Kelvin wave by itself is that opportunity for development with enhanced lift is rather short vs MJO enhancement.

[weatherwindow]

Key phrase in bold. I agree. Thanks.

And about lacking storms, they really aren't lacking. Many people have pointed out that Africa has been quite active and earlier many said there were a lot of storms coming out of Africa for so early of the season. They have been squashed by sinking air once they move out.

Based on the broad global signals, a panoply of expert opinion, and a healthy respect for climatology, I think by the end of the last week of August we will be laughing about the abundance of "concern". As already noted, we are out practice with respect to "back loaded" seasons. I, too, am of the opinion that we will experience a very unsettling Sept and October. If I may again refer to 2004, we may hear any number of complaints about the pressure of repetitive landfall threats facing us thru late Aug, Sept and perhaps into October...Grtz from KW, Rich

[CrazyC83]

Back-loaded seasons often seem to produce monsters as well, since they allow the oceans to heat up more without early activity to come into play.

[Hammy]

Back-loaded seasons often seem to produce monsters as well, since they allow the oceans to heat up more without early activity to come into play.

Two examples of this were 1998-99, both of which went all the way until the last third of August with only a single storm, yet 1998 produced Mitch in October and 1999 nearly Cat 5 Lenny in November.

[SFLcane]

Dangerous times ahead the 500mb pattern being portrayed by the GFS has a Trof situated over the eastern United States with ridging over Canada and north of the islands.

[ninel conde]

good news is joe bastardi says 75% of season left after aug15 though thats just climo. doesnt mention anything specific developing though.

[beoumont]

good news is joe bastardi says 75% of season left after aug15 though thats just climo. doesnt mention anything specific developing though.

Of course that is climo; and if he did mention something specific, it certainly is no more than an "educated" guess, at best.

I believe a higher %, something like 80 + percent of major hurricanes that hit the USA, do so between August 15th and October 20th (the REAL hurricane season); so what happens before that date doesn't indicate anything. Just like preseason football games don't indicate much at all about what is to come in the real season. Someone on the forum might have a more specific percentage to share from the database.

[weatherwindow]

Back-loaded seasons often seem to produce monsters as well, since they allow the oceans to heat up more without early activity to come into play.

Two examples of this were 1998-99, both of which went all the way until the last third of August with only a single storm, yet 1998 produced Mitch in October and 1999 nearly Cat 5 Lenny in November.

In my little corner of the world...we have fond memories of Georges 9/25/98..Grtz from KW, Rich

[tolakram]

good news is joe bastardi says 75% of season left after aug15 though thats just climo. doesnt mention anything specific developing though.

I'm trying my best to figure out what this means. Good news, Joe Bastardi can read the calendar? His actions seem designed to keep people interested and following along. He told you the season was over a couple of weeks ago and next week he'll be hyping the season again. He called for an active dangerous season, but he has not re-issue any update so I'm really not sure where he stands.

If he had any verification of his forecasts I think they would be astoundingly poor.

I would rather not see anymore tweets from Bastardi. A tweet is not a forecast.

[Sanibel]

A Kelvin Wave should move eastward and displace the hostile conditions in the Caribbean next week.

[TheStormExpert]

Not wanting to give up on this season but it's already Aug. 10th which of course is the date we should climatology see our first hurricane by and we have had no hurricanes. What only adds to this is there are no disturbances whatsoever that we can really track, and the models are really showing little to no development through late August. Like I've said before something just doesn't seem right to me out there?

Even back in June the disturbances that came off of Africa were more vigorous than now so like someone else said on here about cooler than average SST's in the Indian Ocean being the reason for much weaker disturbances I think there is more to it since disturbances that came off Africa in June and early July were much stronger than they are now. Just my thoughts and opinions!

[ninel conde]

good news is joe bastardi says 75% of season left after aug15 though thats just climo. doesnt mention anything specific developing though.

I'm trying my best to figure out what this means. Good news, Joe Bastardi can read the calendar? His actions seem designed to keep people interested and following along. He told you the season was over a couple of weeks ago and next week he'll be hyping the season again. He called for an active dangerous season, but he has not re-issue any update so I'm really not sure where he stands.

If he had any verification of his forecasts I think they would be astoundingly poor.

I would rather not see anymore tweets from Bastardi. A tweet is not a forecast.

he lowered his ACE from 165 to 140. i personally think thats still way too high.