Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013

DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 05/00UTC: POTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE HAS
MIGRATED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. RIDGE IS STILL
VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITS PERIPHERY THUS ENHANCING DIURNAL
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
MID/UPPER SOUTHEASTERLIES IN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARE STEERING
DIURNAL STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST. RIDGE IS TO MEANDER LITTLE
THROUGH THE CYCLE...REMAINING CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS WHILE
PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATE ALONG THE PERIPHERY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION.
ONE PERTURBATION IS A TUTT FORECAST TO CENTER OVER VERACRUZ BY 24
HRS...ZACATECAS/DURANGO BY 48 HRS...SINALOA-DURANGO-CHIHUAHUA BY
72 HRS. AT LOW-LEVELS EASTERLY WAVE IS EXITING INTO THE OPEN
PACIFIC STILL AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO
SINALOA/SONORA. THIS WILL STILL AID CONVECTION THROUGH 24-36
HRS...TO START DECREASING AFTERWARDS. ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD ALONG SOUTHERN MEXICO TO HELP MODULATE THE LOCATION OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
THROUGH 36 HRS...EXPECTING HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER JALISCO/NAYARIT
REACHING 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. TO THE EAST
EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON DAY 02...EXPECTING
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MMM OVER GUERRERO/MICHOACAN INTO
JALISCO. ON DAY 03...EXPECTING MAXIMA TO DECREASE TO 15-30MM.

POTENT TUTT IS RETROGRESSING TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CUBA. THE TUTT WILL CENTER OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
EXTENDING INTO HISPANIOLA BY 24 HRS...MOVE LITTLE BY 48 HRS...TO
EXTEND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA BY 72
HRS. AT LOW LEVELS...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND NORTHWESTERLIES ARE
ESTABLISHING OVER THE BAHAMAS WHILE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER
CUBA-GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IS ADVECTED OVER WARM WATERS. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE TAIL OF A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AS
THIS INTERACTS WITH UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH...EXPECTING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 36 HRS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED BY 36-60
HRS IN INTERACTION WITH APPROACHING TUTT TO SUSTAIN SIMILAR
AMOUNTS WITH MAXIMA DECREASING TO 15MM. BY 60-84
HRS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS TO REESTABLISH WHILE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY DECREASES. STILL...TUTT WILL ENHANCE SHALLOW AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUSTAINING ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM OVER CUBA...AND 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. OVER HISPANIOLA... EXPECTING
AMOUNTS TO INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM AS EARLY
AS DAY 02 UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT.

ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DRY CONDITIONS ARE REESTABLISHING
AS STRONG INVERSION AND SAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THROUGH 36 HRS...STRONGEST CONVECTION
WILL CLUSTER ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO WESTERN
NICARAGUA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FURTHER BY 36-60 HRS WITH STRONGEST
CONVECTION CLUSTERING OVER PANAMA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN PANAMA/AZUERO
PENINSULA ON DAY 03 AS PANAMANIAN LOW INTENSIFIES AND STRONG
CONVECTION IS GENERATED ACROSS THE CHOCO IN COLOMBIA. EXPECTING
AMOUNTS TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.

ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION IS CLUSTERING ALONG THE
ITCZ/NET AND WAVES IN THE EASTERLIES. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
COLOMBIA LATE ON DAY 01 INTO DAY 02. PANAMANIAN LOW WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PEAK LATE ON DAY 02 INTO
DAY 03. AT UPPER LEVELS...DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ONE OVER CENTRAL BRASIL WILL ENHANCE
VENTILATION AND SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. THUS EXPECTING A
REACTIVATION LATE ON DAY 02 INTO DAY 03. EXPECTING STRONGEST
CONVECTION WITH HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ON DAY 03.
ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE COLOMBIAN
ANDES WITH AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

CHANGE IN PATTERN IS ALSO BEING FELT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AS DRY AIRMASS EXITS TO THE WEST AND DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS/BUILDS BACK. STILL EXPECTING SHALLOW CONVECTION TO
DOMINATE THE REGION WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERSISTS.
LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS THEY TRANSPORT A COOLER AIRMASS INTO WARMER
WATERS. A MUCH MARKED INCREASE IS EXPECTED BY 60-72 HRS AS
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE WITH A
DEEPER MOISTURE POOL AND LARGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER CONVECTION ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON DAY 04 AS TUTT ENTERS THE BASIN FROM THE
ATLANTIC...AND BETTER VENTILATION ESTABLISHES OVER NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA/NORTHERN GUIANAS TO SUSTAIN MODERATE AMOUNTS. BY 36-60
HRS...EXPECTING AMOUNTS INCREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. BY 60-84
HRS...EXPECTING SIMILAR AMOUNTS SPREADING INTO THE LEEWARDS/VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. FURTHER SOUTH...ITCZ CONVECTION WILL LEAD
TO AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE ORDER OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
43W 46W 48W 51W 54W 56W 59W 62W TW
53W 55W 58W 60W 63W 65W 68W 71W EW
66W 68W 70W 72W 75W 78W 80W 82W TW
82W 86W 90W 94W 98W 102W 105W 108W TW
87W 91W 95W 99W 103W 107W 110W 113W EW
95W 97W 99W 101W 103W 105W 107W 108W TUTT INDCD

NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 43W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.
THIS WAVE WILL ENTER FRENCH GUIANA BY 54-60 HRS PRODUCING ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOSTLY
CONSTRAINED TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

EASTERLY WAVE IS ORGANIZING AT 53W AND WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE AND
MEANDER INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE LIMITED
EFFECTS ON CONVECTION WITH STRONGEST ENHANCEMENT ON DAY 03 ACROSS
THE FRENCH ANTILLES INTO THE LEEWARDS/VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 66W WILL CROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN VENEZUELA INTO
EASTERN COLOMBIA THROUGH 24-36 HRS...WESTERN VENEZUELA/COLOMBIAN
LLANOS/ANDES BY 48 HRS...TO EXIT INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/PANAMA/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY 72 HRS. STRONGEST EFFECTS ON
CONVECTION WILL BE FELT ACROSS COLOMBIA LATE ON DAY 02 INTO DAY
03. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE VENTILATION AT UPPER
LEVELS...LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM ACROSS THE CHOCO/NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...AND 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ACROSS THE ANDES.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 82W HAS A SIGNATURE NORTH INTO HONDURAS.
YET...DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH IS CONSTRAINING STRONGEST
PRECIPITATION TO EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS/WESTERN NICARAGUA
AND REGIONS TO THE SOUTH.

EASTERLY WAVE AT 87W IS EXITING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
LIMITED EFFECTS ON CONTINENTAL CONVECTION.

TUTT-INDUCED WAVE AT 95W WILL MODULATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MEXICO
AS IT EVOLVES IN UNISON WITH RETROGRESSING TUTT. YET...SEASONALLY
DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.

ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion of Wave/Surface Trough and Low Pressure.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
19N54W 14N56W 10N56W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W
AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...APPROACHING BARBADOS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 8N TO
16N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 14N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST TUE AUG 6 2013

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOVING RAPIDLY LEAVING MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERAL WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS AND
ACCOMPANYING SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
MAINTAINING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave and surface troughs will affect the PR and adjacent areas today thru the rest of this week bringing scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST WED AUG 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL
WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS.
A GENERALLY UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE USVI THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LARGE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE HAVE RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS AND HALF-INCH.

THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS. SOILS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...
SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CREATE FLOODING IN SOME STREAMS
AND RIVERS ACROSS THESE AREAS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MODELS
STILL SHOWING SURGES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AND TJSJ THIS MORNING...SPREADING
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN SHRA/TSRA AFT 07/16Z. THESE SHRA/TSRA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE U.S .
VIRGIN ISLANDS. EAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 60 30 20 30
STT 89 80 90 80 / 50 40 20 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

Forecast for some Caribbean Islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST WED AUG 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IMMEDIATELY AND
MOVE INTO CUBA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
ON TUESDAY AND MOVES OVER CUBA BY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES ACROSS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST AND BE
REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIMITED EFFECTS. IN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS WEST
SOUTHWEST TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH RIPPLES AND BANDS OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN PONCE AND SPREAD
NORTHWEST TO RINCON AND VICINITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN SAINT
THOMAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN SAINT CROIX. TONIGHT THE GFS SHOWS A
DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM ABOUT 08/12-20Z AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FALLS OVER THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND STABILITY IMPROVE NOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PROVE TO BE THE NORM. TROPICAL WAVES THAT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS ARE WEAK AND
TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY FORMING WITH SAHARAN AIR AND SOME
SHEAR FROM THE MANY TUTT LOWS THAT DRIFT THROUGH. THEREFORE THE
PATTERN OF RAINFALL WILL SEEM SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TOMORROW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJBQ...AS WELL AS BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT
TIST/TISX...TJPS AND TJSJ UNTIL EVENING HOURS. THESE SHRA/TSRA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE. ACROSS PR THE LLVL WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE E AND
ACROSS THE USVI FROM THE ESE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS...SOME GUSTY
WINDS OF 17 TO 27 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS A SECOND WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND TIGHTENS THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 30 20 30 20
STT 80 89 80 91 / 40 20 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 PM AST WED AUG 7 2013

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING MAINLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING
REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
RAPIDLY LEAVING MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIMITED
EFFECTS OVER THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND SOME CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A variable weather pattern will prevail thru the weekend with periods of sun with scattered showers. Some haze will move thru the islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST THU AUG 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A TUTT LOW THAT
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL KEEP A TRADE WIND
WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT IN OUR AREA
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS HAS TRANSPORTED PATCHES
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS MOVED FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LEAVING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO HALF-INCH. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TODAY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN STABLE
AIR MASS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
ANALYSIS REVEALS A DRY SLOT UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES OR LESS. AS A RESULT...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNIG... STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGESTS
SOME SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES REACHING THE LOCAL REGION TODAY...PERSISTING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MORE ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA. CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOLLOWS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WITH AN INCREASING WETTER PATTERN. BASICALLY...A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. MODELS
INDICATED A MORE STABLE PATTERN ESTABLISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 08/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...AN ASCAT PASS RECEIVED NEAR MIDNIGHT INDICATED WINDS UP
TO 20 KT AROUND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. THIS FRESH WIND WILL
RESULT IN SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 80 / 20 30 40 20
STT 89 79 90 80 / 20 40 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST THU AUG 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SEPARATING TWO
TUTT LOWS...ONE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE OTHER OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
FURTHER WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. IT WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH/TUTT WHICH WILL BECOME FURTHER AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION AND TROUGH ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING WEAKLY INDUCED
EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PROPAGATE
WESTWARDS AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO
INJECT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED AREAS. ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL SHOWED THE SMALL
SLOT OF DRY AIR QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
A MOIST TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVERGENT ZONE QUICKLY ENTERED THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS HOWEVER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. FOR THE LONG TERM... ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR WEAK TROPICAL WAVES/EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS
WHICH WILL PROPAGATED WESTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AT TNCM...TKPK AND TJMZ...AS WELL AS BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS
AT TIST/TISX...AND TJSJ UNTIL 08/23Z HRS. INTERVAL OF PASSING
SHRA/+SHRA WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND MOST TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT PREVAILING VFR CONDS WILL CONT DURG THE
PRD. NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH STRONGER SFC WND ACCOMPANYING THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THIS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
PASSING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 89 / 30 40 20 20
STT 79 90 80 90 / 40 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
903 PM AST THU AUG 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
AS CNTRL ATLC TUTT RETROGRESSES FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN MON-WED. ANOTHER TUTT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THU-FRI OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED UP CONSIDERABLY PAST 12 HOURS
WITH PW VALUES UP TO 2.2 INCHES PER 09/00Z JSJ RAOB. BELIEVE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING NEXT 36 HRS UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT. ON SUNDAY...LOCAL AREA BECOMES
UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SIDE OF RETOGRESSING CNTRL ATLC TUTT
WITH SHAPING UP TO BE VERY ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIG
RAIFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY REQUIRE THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED MON
WITH SIG DRYING TUE UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CONDITIONS
LOOK DRIER THAN NORMAL TUE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PSBL TONITE ALL TAF SITES XCP
TJPS/TJMZ BUT MOST WL STAY AT SEA. ISOLD BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN STRAY
SHRA/TSRA COMING ONSHORE. CONVECTION DECR FRI AFT XCP SCT/NMRS
SHRA/TSRA WESTERN PR WI OBSCD MTNS. WINDS BLO FL150 E 14-28 KT THRU
SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. ISOLD TSTMS FRI-SAT
INCREASING IN AREAL CVRG SUN WITH TUTT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 89 / 40 40 20 20
STT 79 90 80 90 / 40 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A variable weather pattern will prevail this weekend with a mix of sun and scattered showers as troughs move thru the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST FRI AUG 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE FAR EAST
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL PROMOTE A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS USVI FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
AS A MOISTURE SURGE/EASTERLY DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT AND DIURNAL
HEATING TO INDUCE SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A DRYING TREND AS SOON AS TONIGHT
UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...WITH JUST AREAS
OF LOCALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY. EARLY NEXT WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA
BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT.
THIS WILL GRANT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY. AN OVERALL DRY AND MAINLY STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH SOME OF
THEM SHRA AFFECTING THE SITES BRIEFLY. THIS WILL CAUSE BRIEF MOMENTS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCT TODAY WHILE
TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 09/16Z. SFC WIND TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT AROUND
10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS NEAR THE SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS 21 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS TUTT RETROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 89 79 / 40 30 30 40
STT 90 80 90 80 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST FRI AUG 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TUTT LOW TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND ELONGATE ACROSS THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER OR NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN MOVE
WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND CROSS MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGE ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TODAY AND MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA DURING ALL OF THE UP COMING
WEEK MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. MOISTURE FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
WILL BE LIMITED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERALLY YIELD ONLY THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE LINGERING FROM THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE HAS BEEN GENERATING RELATIVELY FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE PRODUCED MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
HEATING ENDS AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES TO THE WEST. THERE WILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY AND THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 50 WEST MOVES THROUGH
OUR CARIBBEAN WATERS AND INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT. DRIER AIR FOLLOWS.
HIGH PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WINDS AT MID LEVELS INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE DOES NOT PASS UNTIL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH SOME SHRA
AFFECTING THE SITES BRIEFLY UNTIL EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
BRIEF MOMENTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCT TIL 09/23Z WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED FOR TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER
09/23Z. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 79 89 / 30 30 40 50
STT 79 89 80 90 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST FRI AUG 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL RETROGRESS TO
THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SECONDARY WEAK TUTT AXIS
MOVING FROM THE TROP ATLC TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
SAT UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT
LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND SAT. WILL LOWER
POPS GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND JUST ISOLD SAT AS PW GETS PRETTY LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TUTT THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA SUN AND QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL DEEP
MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD. RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO KEEP BEST MOISTURE SOUTH
OVR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST BLENDED TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TEND TO SUGGEST THAT BEST WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT AND MON ESPECIALLY OVER CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHEAST PR.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WED-THU OF WEST SIDE OF ANOTHER TUTT. SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND BUT OVERALL WX CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TROP ATLC AWFUL QUIET AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONITE BUT IS A STRETCH TO INCLUDE MVFR
IN ANY TAF. SCT SHRA/TSRA WESTERN PR SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
WINDS BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN
ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT
NEARLY 20 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 88 80 89 / 20 30 40 50
STT 81 89 81 90 / 30 30 40 40

[Macrocane]

Finally the mid summer drought is about to end in Central America:

ROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013

DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 09/00UTC: PATTERN IN MEXICO IS
TRANSITIONING TO A WETTER ONE AS POTENT TUTT RETROGRESSES INTO THE
AREA. TUTT IS INDUCING A BROAD WAVE IN THE TRADES THAT WILL IMPACT
YUCATAN/CHIAPAS/OAXACA/GUATEMALA TODAY...THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
TOMORROW AND MOST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE TRANSPORTING A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS WESTWARD THAT WILL LEAD TO A SHARP INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. HEAVIEST IS
EXPECTED OVER YUCATAN WITH AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS EXPECTING
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON DAY 02 HEAVIEST WILL DOT THE
GULF COAST AND MOST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO GUATEMALA WITH AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON DAY 03 HEAVIEST WILL
EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO WITH AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

POTENT TUTT WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
CUBA...THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ON DAY
01...EXPECTING HEAVIEST OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
JAMAICA EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20. AMOUTNS WILL
DECREASE AFTERWARDS AS STABLE AIR MASS SETS IN.

OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...QUIET PATTERN IS ALSO TRANSITIONING IN A
MORE GRADUAL MANNER UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT TO THE NORTH...AND
ALSO EASTERLY WAVE ARRIVING ON DAY 02. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER PANAMA/COSTA RICA WITH AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE
TO THE NORTH ACROSS NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY DAY 03 EXPECTING SHARP INCREASE WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM OVER
PANAMA...SAND 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM OVER SOUTHERN
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES ITS TRANSITION INTO A WETTER
PATTERN. MAIN WEATHER PLAYER WILL BE A TUTT APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TUTT WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE WINDWARDS...AND WITH AN ELONGATED REGION OF TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION. HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
ANTILLES...BUT LATER IN THE CYCLE THESE WILL MIGRATE WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TO AFFECT HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA/CUBA/CAYMAN ISLANDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACROSS THE FRENCH
ANTILLES AND CENTRAL LEEWARDS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON DAY 02 EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON DAY EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTERWARDS.

NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS QUITE ACTIVE AT THE MOMENT...ESPECIALLY
COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA AS GOOD VENTILATION REMAINS OVER
THE AREA WHILE SEVERAL WAVES IN THE TRADES PASS BY. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED LATER IN THE CYCLE BY SOUTHERLY SURGE AND
SHEAR LINE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. ON DAY 01
EXPECTING HEAVIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA WITH
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON DAY 02 EXPECTING
SIMILAR AMOUNTS...WITH MAXIMA INCREASING TO 40-80MM/DAY ACROSS THE
CHOCO. HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE EXOECTED INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA AS WELL.
ON DAY 03...EXPECTING AMOUNTS INCREASING FURTHER TO 15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
48W 51W 55W 59W 62W 65W 68W 71W TW
61W 65W 68W 71W 74W 77W 81W 85W TW
72W 75W 78W 81W 84W 87W 90W 94W EW
91W 94W 98W 102W 105W 108W DISS TW
91W 95W 99W 102W 106W 110W EXITS TUTT INDCD

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AT 48W WILL ENTER THE GUIANAS LATE ON DAY 01
INTO DAY 02 PRODUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 61W WILL INITIALLY BE CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN/SOUTH AMERICA. AS IT TRANSVERSES THE BASIN...WAVE WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT WILL ENTER IN PHASE WITH TUTT TO THE NORTH. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE ANTILLES AS
IT MOVES WEST/NORTHWESTWARD LATE DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS VENEZUELA INTO
COLOMBIA.

EASTERLY WAVE AT 72W WILL PRODUCE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ONCE IT ARRIVES IN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING DAY 02 INDO
DAY 03.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 91W IS EXITING THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH LIMITED
EFFECTS IN CONTINENTAL CONVECTION.

POTENT TUTT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHT IS RETROGRESSING WHILE
INDUCING A LARGE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 91W. THIS
WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN INCLUDING CUBA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND LATER IN THE CYCLE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO.

ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A series of troughs will move thru the area in the next few days bringing scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT AUG 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
ELONGATES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH JUST AREAS OF LOCALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA
BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT.
ALTHOUGH...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT BULK OF MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECT TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY MIDWEEK...WITH STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TUTT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BETTER MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT PASSING SHRA
EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...VCSH WRITTEN ON
TAF. SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCT TODAY WHILE TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10/17Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TEMPO
NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY...VCTS WRITTEN INSTEAD.
SFC WIND TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH
ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY
AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND
SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 20 0 0 30
STT 89 81 90 81 / 20 0 0 40

[Gustywind]

Strong showers and tstorms are abatting for 1 hour in Guadeloupe. Guadeloupe is under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms since yesterday night 11PM.

[cycloneye]

Forecasts for different islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST SAT AUG 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. TROUGHINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
LEAVING WEAK GRADIENTS UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK AND DIFFUSE INVERTED TROUGH MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND WILL PASS PUERTO RICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST MID WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND BAND OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE PASSAGE WILL BE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED MOST OF PUERTO RICO HAD LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH WHERE THERE WERE SHOWERS
THEY WERE HEAVY. BY 2:30 PM AST 0.19 INCHES HAD FALLEN AT THE SAN
JUAN AIRPORT SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH
IN MAYAGUEZ ACCORDING TO RADAR. BETTER SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN
THE EXTREME SOUTH PORTION OF OUR MARINE WATERS UP UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. THE MIMIC PRODUCT INDICATED A BAND OF RICH MOISTURE
FROM ABOUT GUADELOUPE SOUTH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT WILL CARRY SOME OF THAT
INTO PUERTO RICO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BOOST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. MOISTURE CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A SECOND BAND OF MOISTURE ...DEPICTED BY
THE GFS AS A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW NEAR 39 WEST...WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A DRIER PERIOD UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ON FRIDAY. CURRENTLY THE
EASTERLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE HEAVY SHOWERS
THAT WILL BE GENERATED MOVING THROUGH FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
EXCESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING DURING THE MONDAY CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT PASSING SHRA TIL
10/23Z. TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR...AFFECTING AREAS IN TJMZ...WITH VCTS...AND
SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TIL 10/23Z. LLVL
WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM E AT 15-25 BLW 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AND SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT
EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 90 / 30 40 50 70
STT 79 88 78 88 / 30 50 90 90

[msbee]

Strong showers and tstorms are abatting for 1 hour in Guadeloupe. Guadeloupe is under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms since yesterday night 11PM.

Hi Gusty
I see Meteo gp has us under green alert. I guess we'll get some of that weather too.