Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[ronjon]

Well due to nothing else looking promising for the next 7-10 days, thought we should get a topic started on this. I circled the area of interest below. Some models have shown possible development as this area gets into the Western Caribbean or near the Yucatan 5 or so days from now:

Actually I think this area combines with vorticity exiting SA in the western caribbean.

[Rgv20]

The Experimental 0zGFS EnKF Ensembles also suggest of a possible TC in the GOM, in fact 3 of the 20 members show a TC in the GOM in 6 to 7 days. The operational GFS EnKF has a weak disturbance in the Eastern BOC by 168 hrs. While the 0z Operational Euro has no disturbance some of its members show some disagreement just north of the Yucatan by Day 7..



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0zGFS EnKF Ensemble Members Day 7...Notice Members 5,13, and 16.


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0zECMWF Ensembles Day 7


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[mpic]

sorry to have caused so much confusion. I'm going to be out of town for a few weeks and just really wondered what conditions to look for while I'm gone in case a quick trip home would be necessary.

[cycloneye]

Nothing from 12z GFS for this area.

[Rgv20]

Still some reflection in the 850mb Vorticity by day 7 but very weak tho..



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[Rgv20]

Thru 132hrs the 12zNAVGEM still showing this disturbing getting its act together in the Western Caribbean....I'm impress with its consistency as it has not push back the time frame.



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EDIT: 12zNAVGEM has a TC in the BOC by the end of its run..



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[cycloneye]

CMC-GEM for the first time has GOM development at 12z run.

[LaBreeze]

How reliable is the EnKF model at this point? I'm not too familiar with it.

['CaneFreak]

The EnKF is not a model. The EnKF is short for an Ensemble Kalman Filter. It's associated with statistics and if I explained it to you it would probably go over your head.

How reliable is the EnKF model at this point? I'm not too familiar with it.

[Sanibel]

The air here feels like anything that touches it should really feed off it. It's ripe.

[mpic]

The air here feels like anything that touches it should really feed off it. It's ripe.

That's what worries me. I know that heat is not the only factor, but our index has been in the triple digits for quite awhile.

[USTropics]

'Canefreak is dead on. In simplest terms, it's essentially a filter that involves a complex equation. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a recursive filter suitable for problems with a large number of variables, such as discretizations of partial differential equations in geophysical models. The EnKF originated as a version of the Kalman filter for large problems (essentially, the covariance matrix is replaced by the sample covariance), and it is now an important data assimilation component of ensemble forecasting. EnKF is related to the particle filter (in this context, a particle is the same thing as an ensemble member) but the EnKF makes the assumption that all probability distributions involved are Gaussian.

For entertainment purposes, here is an excerpt of the 'basic' equation:



The first sum is the posterior mean, and the second sum, in view of the independence, has a variance:



On a side note, you know it's slow going in the tropics when we're referencing the EnKF

[LaBreeze]

The EnKF is not a model. The EnKF is short for an Ensemble Kalman Filter. It's associated with statistics and if I explained it to you it would probably go over your head.

How reliable is the EnKF model at this point? I'm not too familiar with it.

Thanks for the answer, I guess (over my head?- wow, it must be more than my university master's degree can handle). That's ok, you don't have to explain. Sorry for referencing the EnKF.

[txwxpirate]

'Canefreak is dead on. In simplest terms, it's essentially a filter that involves a complex equation. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a recursive filter suitable for problems with a large number of variables, such as discretizations of partial differential equations in geophysical models. The EnKF originated as a version of the Kalman filter for large problems (essentially, the covariance matrix is replaced by the sample covariance), and it is now an important data assimilation component of ensemble forecasting. EnKF is related to the particle filter (in this context, a particle is the same thing as an ensemble member) but the EnKF makes the assumption that all probability distributions involved are Gaussian.

For entertainment purposes, here is an excerpt of the 'basic' equation:



The first sum is the posterior mean, and the second sum, in view of the independence, has a variance:



On a side note, you know it's slow going in the tropics when we're referencing the EnKF

That's really impressive, but they still can't tell us when a cane will hit!

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM brings back the BOC system:

[CYCLONE MIKE]

IF and that is an IF as big as texas, this actaully develops. It looks like it might have a chance to come towards the north gulf coast. Our local nws long range forecast is talking about a strong front making it all the way down towards our coast next Saturday/Sunday.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows no development.

[Dean4Storms]

18Z GFS shows no development.

It does show a Low there in the SW Gulf, just never deepens it. That can change.

@144 hours.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_49.png

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

18Z NAVGEM still has it...this time a little further north after crossing the Yucatan.

[perk]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=nvg_troplant&dtg=2013081018&prod=sfc10m&tau=000&set=Tropical

18Z NAVGEM still has it...this time a little further north after crossing the Yucatan.

I guest we should start watching the western carribean around Tuesday or Wednesday for the initial stage of development.