Global model runs discussion

[ninel conde]

18Z GFS shows no development through 384 hours (Aug. 26th)

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp48.png

it even dropped the very weak lower pressure in the far west carib. assuming this is right we may well have an august of no storms since it shows no interesting areas on the 26th.

[RL3AO]

12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.

One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor

Bastardi's partner D'Aleo brought something similar up a few days ago. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). I had never heard of it, but alas it exists.

[UpTheCreek]

Then how do we explain the very early Cape Verde storms that we've already had this season?

12Z GFS is totally quiet through 16 days.

One thing briefly discussed in the office was that we don't have the disturbances to develop due to cold waters in the western Indian Ocean. This may be preventing the waves from forming over E Africa in the first place. I have never considered this factor

Bastardi's partner D'Aleo brought something similar up a few days ago. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). I had never heard of it, but alas it exists.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We are discussing the IOD in the Atlantic sea surface temperature thread. As a short answer, no, the negative IOD is not having a negative effect on the Atlantic; quite the opposite, actually.

[Alyono]

We are discussing the IOD in the Atlantic sea surface temperature thread. As a short answer, no, the negative IOD is not having a negative effect on the Atlantic; quite the opposite, actually.

Please explain the meteorology behind your hypothesis. The pros are saying the opposite

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We are discussing the IOD in the Atlantic sea surface temperature thread. As a short answer, no, the negative IOD is not having a negative effect on the Atlantic; quite the opposite, actually.

Please explain the meteorology behind your hypothesis. The pros are saying the opposite

I did...in the other thread.

[Hammy]

It strikes me as a bit odd that the GFS lately is seemingly developing systems over Africa then shooting them northwest before they come off.

[Steve H.]

The GFS always takes any system coming off off of Africa way off to the right (out to sea) initially. Usually it adjusts in a westerly direction over time (it has a right bias) Hammy.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

In no way do i think we hit the number they predicted and reaffirmed... no way

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think the season is toast IMO, but if nothing forms the next two weeks, then, the odds of the forecast being correct are much lower.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think between 12-15 storms is what sounds reasonable now.


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[ROCK]

0Z NAVGEM has a strong TS in the Western GOM....stops at 180hr but looks like it wants to go to SWLA

0Z CMC has a TS into AL/MS area

[Riptide]

Anything after 180 hours on the GFS would become bogus anyhow. Go with climo and you will go far....first hurricane around Aug 20th give or take.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bamajammer4eva]

2 models that show possibly gulf coast mischief

Canadian



Navy

[Hammy]

Also looking like Monday evening will be telling as to whether or not the first signs of it begin to show up in the Caribbean as per the models.

[tolakram]

In no way do i think we hit the number they predicted and reaffirmed... no way

Enough of this in this thread. Model runs and direct discussion of those runs in this thread only. We have plenty of other threads for people to make conclusions about the rest of the season.

[Dean4Storms]

We've seen already this season the GFS show something long range beyond 7 days to then drop it and it then develop.

Don't buy into the GFS beyond 5 days when one day it has development and the next day it doesn't. It would be hard to fathom making it to the end of August without development somewhere.

[ROCK]

the 06Z FIM....hit Galveston with a TS

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM

06Z NAVGEM...hits AL/MS with a TS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Hammy]

12Z GFS popping to life showing at least three storms during the period, including the possibly soon-to-be Gulf system hitting near Alabama in a week as a moderate TS

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_54.png

[cycloneye]

MDR turns alive at 12z GFS. But is super long range so you know the drill.