my personal forecast - landfall near Casiguran, Aurora

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cebuboy wrote:I observed it's expanding quickly; even its rainbands reach Cebu city I checked on the latest Satellite data. Damn, a probably rapid intensification might happen anytime now. It can become Category 5. Remember the 1995 Typhoon Angela?, path is very similar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Angela_1995_track.png
It tracks upwards for some time but goes straight to Manila. This is the worst that can happen. I hope we are prepared on this.
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:cebuboy wrote:I observed it's expanding quickly; even its rainbands reach Cebu city I checked on the latest Satellite data. Damn, a probably rapid intensification might happen anytime now. It can become Category 5. Remember the 1995 Typhoon Angela?, path is very similar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Angela_1995_track.png
It tracks upwards for some time but goes straight to Manila. This is the worst that can happen. I hope we are prepared on this.
I'm also in Cebu. Do you remember Utor [Seniang] last 2006?
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Utor really getting intense. Organizing really fast and its eye is clearing up, could be about 125-135 kts.
This is one of the most impressive Category 3's out there.
Meow wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Utor really getting intense. Organizing really fast and its eye is clearing up, could be about 125-135 kts.
This is one of the most impressive Category 3's out there.
Parma in 2009 looked like that, and it was a super typhoon.
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:And that is why i'm wondering why Utor wasn't upgraded into a Category 4. This season, both JMA and JTWC are more conservative.
cebuboy wrote:I observed it's expanding quickly; even its rainbands reach Cebu city I checked on the latest Satellite data. Damn, a probably rapid intensification might happen anytime now. It can become Category 5. Remember the 1995 Typhoon Angela?, path is very similar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Angela_1995_track.png
It tracks upwards for some time but goes straight to Manila. This is the worst that can happen. I hope we are prepared on this.
dexterlabio wrote:I think if ever the track goes south, the landfall will still be in Aurora, but near Dingalan Bay. And even if the track is well north of Manila, we can still feel its effects. Loleng (Babs) in 1998 which made landfall in Aurora but I remember the weather in Manila then was stormy...same with Pedring (Nesat) 2 years ago, it made landfall in Isabela-Aurora border but Manila also took a beating. We should all be prepared.
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Meow wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Utor really getting intense. Organizing really fast and its eye is clearing up, could be about 125-135 kts.
This is one of the most impressive Category 3's out there.
Parma in 2009 looked like that, and it was a super typhoon.
And that is why i'm wondering why Utor wasn't upgraded into a Category 4. This season, both JMA and JTWC are more conservative.
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Meow wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Utor really getting intense. Organizing really fast and its eye is clearing up, could be about 125-135 kts.
This is one of the most impressive Category 3's out there.
Parma in 2009 looked like that, and it was a super typhoon.
And that is why i'm wondering why Utor wasn't upgraded into a Category 4. This season, both JMA and JTWC are more conservative.
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