WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

the northern eye wall is intense but the max is at 97-100 knots...
not yet a cat 4 but it's going there


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[dexterlabio]

we might feel some effects of UTOR but I don't think it will be as bad as Nesat. The south west monsoon aka "HABAGAT" is relatively weak right now...

I still don't buy the idea that the monsoon did all those high waves in Manila Bay during Nesat. I just assumed that Nesat's windfield was so large that high-end TS force winds reached Manila... Besides, the moisture from the monsoon is what affects us but not the wind itself.

[dexterlabio]

so far, Utor matched the intensity of its 2006 counterpart...

[mrbagyo]

we might feel some effects of UTOR but I don't think it will be as bad as Nesat. The south west monsoon aka "HABAGAT" is relatively weak right now...

I still don't buy the idea that the monsoon did all those high waves in Manila Bay during Nesat. I just assumed that Nesat's windfield was so large that high-end TS force winds reached Manila... Besides, the moisture from the monsoon is what affects us but not the wind itself.

looks like you're correct.. but monsoon indeed add some fuel to NESAT

Typhoon force wind did Metro Manila. here is the extent of winds of typhoon NESAT

[RL3AO]

Wowzer. That eye has warmed dramatically the past hour or two. Might make a run at 140kts in the next 12 to 18 hours.

[vrif]

OSCAT 0811 0308Z pass

[mrbagyo]

who can give a link to the BALER RADAR??


source: PAGASA facebook page.

[dexterlabio]

DT numbers now up to 6.0, equivalent to a Category 4 typhoon. Maybe the only good news is that the storm is compact and the area of extreme typhoon winds is limited.

[vrif]

That is one very clear eye.

[dexterlabio]

[RL3AO]

Getting raw T# of 7.1 from ADT. Looking at how quickly the eye was warmed, I can't say I'm surprised.

[vrif]

JMA upgraded Utor to a Very Strong Typhoon from a Strong Typhoon


WTPQ20 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1311 UTOR (1311)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 15.1N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 17.5N 120.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 130600UTC 19.7N 116.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 140600UTC 21.0N 112.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[dexterlabio]

so do you think Utor is pulling off a Cimaron or Chebi 2006?

[mrbagyo]

so do you think Utor is pulling off a Cimaron or Chebi 2006?

Its pulling a Cimaron... the intensification, the looks, and the tracks are quite similar.

[Alyono]

Getting raw T# of 7.1 from ADT. Looking at how quickly the eye was warmed, I can't say I'm surprised.

Just had a look and am now getting a T number of 6.5

Looks like my forecast of 120 KT will bust low

[dexterlabio]

On a side note, it's funny how the Euro initialized Utor as a TS on their 00z run. I mean come on. I used to like ECMWF back in 2008-2011.

[stormstrike]

i'm quite sure next JTWC bulletin we'll have a Category 4 typhoon..

[Typhoon Hunter]

Still appears to be gaining latitude. Already level with 12z JTWC forecast point so is currently north of their forecast track. Meteorologically a beautiful looking system.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[dexterlabio]

Yeah landfall might occur in the border of Isabela and Aurora, unless the eye wobbles a bit more. A supertyphoon isn't impossible, is it?

[mrbagyo]

looks more solid in this image


Uploaded with ImageShack.us