WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

It seems JTWC will raise it to 115kts. That intensity is reasonable 2 or 3 hours ago IMO. Utor is evolving quickly.

[mrbagyo]

33 fishermen are now missing
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/321554/news/regions/report-33-fishermen-missing-in-catanduanes-amid-labuyo-threat

[jaguarjace]

Here's a loop of 2006 Typhoon Cimaron: [link]

[mrbagyo]

JMA now expecting a VIOLENT typhoon and a VIOLENT landfall...
<Analyses at 11/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 11/21 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N16°20'(16.3°)
E122°25'(122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 12/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 13/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E116°00'(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 14/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°00'(21.0°)
E112°40'(112.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

[ejeraldmc]

The eye is getting smaller.

[dexterlabio]

Maybe the eyewall is constricting.

[mrbagyo]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[RL3AO]

Quick estimate would be 125 to 130 kt.

[dexterlabio]

I think there is a bit of an eyewall replacement cycle happening. Though thick ring of deep convection still surrounds the eye.

[mrbagyo]

the eye really shrunk in size.
BEFORE and AFTER

[xtyphooncyclonex]

the eye really shrunk in size.
BEFORE and AFTER

Utor's eye is shrinking but its convection is improving in shape (more annular).

[stormstrike]

a 140-kt typhoon before landfall??

TPPN12 PGTW 111227

A. TYPHOON 11W (UTOR)

B. 11/1132Z

C. 15.5N

D. 123.5E

E. TWO/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 6.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/0635Z 15.0N 124.8E MMHS
11/0719Z 15.2N 124.5E TRMM
11/0849Z 15.3N 124.2E SSMS

[RobWESTPACWX]

Over 30 fishermen are already missing. They all went out on Saturday when this was still a "tropical storm".... I hope they all make it home safe.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... ilippines/

[dexterlabio]

Latest JTWC satfix has DT of 7.0, I think this is a little late right now because it looked really impressive an hour ago. Still has roughly 5-6 hours before landfall so we might see the eye clearing up again.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Note, Megi was a 7.5 at landfall.

[mrbagyo]

the eye really shrunk in size.
BEFORE and AFTER

Utor's eye is shrinking but its convection is improving in shape (more annular).

annular??? i don't think so..

[dexterlabio]

Now a VIOLENT typhoon according to JMA.

TY 1311 (UTOR)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 11 August 2013

<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N15°30'(15.5°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 12/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E119°35'(119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E114°40'(114.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°10'(21.2°)
E111°40'(111.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

[dexterlabio]

[dexterlabio]

Both JMA and JTWC (DT 7.0 on satfix) agree that Utor is the strongest tropical cyclone of WPAC, so far..

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track at 130kts,926 mbs

11W UTOR 130811 1200 15.4N 123.8E WPAC 130 926