WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Incredible typhoon.

[euro6208]

It's impossible to guess the intensity at this point. 130 knots seems low given the solid structure and eye and the continued rapid intensification. Dvorak is just catching up.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (UTOR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 123.8E

[Hurricane_Luis]

Super Typhoon Utor (Labuyo)



My intensity guess around 140-145 knots

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Possibly a Cat 5 with winds of 140 kts at landfall.

[euro6208]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2485

Dr. Jeff Masters updated his blog and talks about Super Typhoon Utor. Alot of information.

[CrazyC83]

Wow talk about rapid intensification! Agreed it looks like a Cat 5, if only there was Recon in that part of the world!

[senorpepr]

Here's a video update on Utor / Labuyo:

Note the advisory information is from 09Z, but I step through a Dvorak analysis in the video around when it was T7.0.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If1cg07qVh0[/youtube]

[CrazyC83]

It appears to be likely to make landfall near Baler (population 35,000).

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2013 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 15:40:30 N Lon : 123:08:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 926.9mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -28.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.3C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 148km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.1 degrees

[RL3AO]

Looks like an EWRC has begun. Utor peaked a few hours ago.

[vrif]

ASCAT 1238Z pass through the eye

['CaneFreak]

This is not something you see everyday. Take a look at this potential intensity map. Look very carefully at the tiny pinhole area that shows an overall reduction in potential intensity because it is currently being used up by Utor.

[RL3AO]

Here's a video update on Utor / Labuyo:

Note the advisory information is from 09Z, but I step through a Dvorak analysis in the video around when it was T7.0.

Thanks Mike, that was great. I've been trying to read Dvorak (1984) but its a lot to take in. Would you mind doing video about applying the technique in a CDO or curved band situation when it arrives?

[vrif]

Here is the 15Z JTWC track

[dexterlabio]

EWRC indeed.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here's a video update on Utor / Labuyo:

Note the advisory information is from 09Z, but I step through a Dvorak analysis in the video around when it was T7.0.

Thanks Mike, that was great. I've been trying to read Dvorak (1984) but its a lot to take in. Would you mind doing video about applying the technique in a CDO or curved band situation when it arrives?

I was thinking of asking him the same thing, when he goes in to DVORAK I start to feel stupid. I get it, I understand it but I cant analyze it the way he does.

Any how, no DVORAK in my video update, just me screaming about how intense this phoon is.


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72YfqFgQdiI[/youtube]

[SouthDadeFish]

Pretty large outer eyewall:

[CrazyC83]

That means it may be weaker (perhaps Cat 3 at landfall) but the extreme winds would cover a larger area - pretty much all of Aurora and perhaps southern Isabela as well.

[phwxenthusiast]

A weather station in Dingalan, Aurora is reporting Atmospheric Pressure of 979hP--would love to see how low it will go before it gets destroyed by winds...