Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[KatDaddy]

Agreed. I should have clarified better. Yes not an Alicia setup. A tropical wave and weak front add complexity to the GOM in August which could lead to development was the point. I should have been more clear. Interesting days ahead.

[Dean4Storms]

The depth and position of that trough is going to mean everything once the Low reaches the Gulf.

[NDG]

Through 120 hrs, the 18z GFS is identical to its earlier 12z run. We got consistency setting in on the GFS.

[gatorcane]

Through 120 hrs, the 18z GFS is identical to its earlier 12z run. We got consistency setting in on the GFS.

Yes, here is the 18Z GFS 144 hour saved image, hello Northern GOM:



12Z GFS saved image for this same timeframe:

[NDG]

Agreed. I should have clarified better. Yes not an Alicia setup. A tropical wave and weak front add complexity to the GOM in August which could lead to development was the point. I should have been more clear. Interesting days ahead.

There is not even going to be a weak front any where close in the western Caribbean, where cyclogenis is forecasted to start happening as indicated by the GFS.

[gatorcane]

The one difference I see between the 12Z GFS and 18Z GFS is that the 18Z GFS moves the system on a more NE path when it makes the turn in the Central Gulf through the FL Panhandle whereas the 12Z GFS move it more NNE into the Alabama.

[perk]

Through 120 hrs, the 18z GFS is identical to its earlier 12z run. We got consistency setting in on the GFS.

Yes, here is the 18Z GFS 144 hour saved image, hello Northern GOM:



12Z GFS saved image for this same timeframe:

6 days out that forecast will change.

[bamajammer4eva]

Wet summer would continue in this area with 5-10" of not needed rainfall. Believable though considering how this summer has gone so far.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM keeps the system weak and heads it into the BOC and then Mexico. Here is the 144 hour forecast. Note the little circle in the BOC:

[cycloneye]

That is a change by NAVGEM on intensity.

[Rgv20]

The 12zECMWF Ensembles show the possible beginning of a TC taking shape in the NW Caribbean by Thursday and the majority of the Ensembles take it to the BOC by Saturday. 18zNAVGEM agrees with this scenario also. Still plenty of time to see how things unfold..

12zECMWF Ensembles day 4


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12zECMWF Ensembles day 6
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18zNAVGEM forecast for Saturday


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[ROCK]

:uarrow: That is a change by NAVGEM on intensity.

thats because it eats the fattest part of the Yucatan before getting in the BOC...to low in lat to feel any short live August trof. So last run was SW LA....this run MX.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agreed. But until if this actually develops, huge if, track and intensity forecasts are going to change daily. Mexico to Florida will be in play. Interesting week of watching ahead.

[KatDaddy]

Yes still way early at this point for details. It will be interesting to see how things develop over the next week.

[ROCK]

Agreed. But until if this actually develops, huge if, track and intensity forecasts are going to change daily. Mexico to Florida will be in play. Interesting week of watching ahead.

not really a huge "if" now that the all mighty all seeing GFS is on board.... The NAVGEM and FIM found it first then the CMC then the GFS....that tells me a lot with its new ability to forecast cyclone formation....

[Hammy]

interesting to note that this is the third consecutive day that the 18z Navy was weaker than the previous three runs of the day.

[cycloneye]

Here we go!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ROCK]

Stewart finally pulled the trigger.....he is usually so conservative....

the NAVGEM finished its 18Z run....makes a jump at the end closer to Brownsville but still ends up in MX.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Hurricane Alexis]

Invest tomorrow?

[KatDaddy]

Game on! Yep interesting days ahead.